Moderators StretchCT Posted March 12, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 12, 2023 Kuchera ratios - watch the snow ratios on this one as its a wet sloppy one particularly closer to the coast and in lower elevations. Kuchera v 10:1 - hey even @Miller A gets some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 12 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Kuchera ratios - watch the snow ratios on this one as its a wet sloppy one particularly closer to the coast and in lower elevations. Kuchera v 10:1 - hey even @Miller A gets some Def need to use ratio maps for this storm. Places on or near the coast will be much less than Catskills or pocono plateau 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryptoWeather Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Def need to use ratio maps for this storm. Places on or near the coast will be much less than Catskills or pocono plateau True. But I see some extremely heavy rates for the coast as the storm deepens. So the rates might be 2x what they are for some areas up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 12, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 12, 2023 A fun shot of the ocean storm, note the dual low structure. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 12, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 hour ago, StretchCT said: Didn't check the temp profiles, but this vv at 700mb will hurt someone. Edit This is the peak of it over LI - so much omega with it peaking in the DGZ. Wish this were a few degrees cooler for them. That should work out well if the VV are over them as depicted. They would be huge flakes (Pancake flakes) with maybe some thunder involved. Just north of the VV is probably the best bet though as that is most likely the way it would be moving. Would have to check out the loop. 53 minutes ago, Harley8778 said: Man, so close but so far... still can't buy an inch of snow down here. Once again happy for those getting snow that haven't yet... feel like I may have to take a road trip just so I remember what it looks like. It has been rough. Almost all places around us have literally gotten an inch and we are sitting at just under. It will be even more painful to watch if the NAM is right with predictions of Montgomery and Bucks counties being the closest to getting snows. This is about as typical as it gets though with a Miller B system. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 12, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 12, 2023 24 minutes ago, CryptoWeather said: True. But I see some extremely heavy rates for the coast as the storm deepens. So the rates might be 2x what they are for some areas up north. Yea but a moisture laden atmosphere presents a problem near the coast. Bad structure potential most likely leads it to 8:1 especially if the atmosphere is isothermal up to about 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 12, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 12, 2023 The expected snowfall from Upton. I'm in a WS watch that says 5-10" but the map says 3". However, they do go on to say in the briefing that there is uncertainty to track and how much cooling there will be. They also show the high end and low end. So zero to twelve inches.🤷♂️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 12, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 12, 2023 GFS does bottom out at 969 which is impressive. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 12, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 12, 2023 Pressures beginning to fall at the GA coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 12, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 12, 2023 Snow trend gfs - last time I clicked to post it the site went down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 12, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 12, 2023 RGEM has been relatively stable, a slow trend in the precip shield orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 12, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 12, 2023 (edited) GEFS trend as good as it looks, surface temps are an issue. Edited March 12, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 12, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 12, 2023 (edited) GEFS snow trend. Then reality Edited March 12, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 12, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 12, 2023 19 minutes ago, StretchCT said: GEFS trend as good as it looks, surface temps are an issue. Yea the layer from surface to about 900mb is going to be rough for most from 95 and SE, areas just NW will be battling it for sure and stand the best chance at having snow for a bit longer. The snow depth maps are much more realistic in terms of totals but areas where you stay cold (all snow) and have nice VV with elevation will do rather well. Bullseye look just south of Albany to somewhere in western Mass. If moisture can stick around longer as the storm cranks up along the coast areas of SNE could get a quick 2-4" more than the depth map shows from the GFS that is a tough call though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 12, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 12, 2023 Modeled skew T for a spot just NW of NYC (GFS) The depiction of a rather intense band starts here and then 6 hours later is over much of CT and then another 6 hours and over much of Mass. Still same look as it goes through time. The low starts to draw in more cold as it sets up near Mass but it is some heavy wet snow to contend with and the lower 1000 feet or so never really cool with winds just driving in off the ocean. Remember those ocean waters are about 3-5C above average right now just off the coast so it will be a hard fought battle between dynamic cooling and a raging easterly jet. Definitely see potential of convection within this system. Biggest uncertainty remains around Eastern/ SE Mass, RI, and eastern CT just how quickly things switch over for them who knows maybe a surprise or two is in store for them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 12, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 12, 2023 UKIE forecast Trend - Seems to lose the double barrel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 12, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 12, 2023 Precip trend on UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 12, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 12, 2023 RGEM precip trend Seems a little colder GEM seems colder too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 12, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 12, 2023 34 minutes ago, StretchCT said: UKIE forecast Trend - Seems to lose the double barrel Nice! what seems to be happening on the short range models is the trough comes in a little deeper a little sharper with each run and the vort that is out ahead is drawn back further SW. This and that usually models tend to go for the further out to sea energy a lot because it is very convective makes me believe this may crawl from just off the Jersey coast up to about Nantucket. If the 850mb low is more closed initially it stands for better precip shield further west and cooler conditions throughout SNE. NAM is also not too far off from RGEM either on the 12z run. The NAM wraps up a little bit quicker than the RGEM does and it is further SW. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted March 12, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 12, 2023 Albany going big with their forecast for southern VT... Closest SREF plumes station not approaching 1' with a spread of 2.5"-19" on the 15z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Tater Posted March 12, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 12, 2023 Had flakes flying for a few hours, but now that the snow stopped it's melting fast. Had a half inch or so in the grass. I guess that puts it in the running for our biggest snowstorm of the winter. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 12, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 12, 2023 Well it is 43 with a dewpoint of 28 and it is snowing at work. Light stuff so far may try to pick up a little closer to the evening but not expecting anything of substance. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 12, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 12, 2023 Anyone know if the SREF plumes use 10:1 or is it their own special ratio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 12, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Anyone know if the SREF plumes use 10:1 or is it their own special ratio I am pretty sure they use ratios. Not sure the calculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 8 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Anyone know if the SREF plumes use 10:1 or is it their own special ratio Yea it’s 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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