Admin MaineJay Posted March 12, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 12, 2023 SREF looks like they are coming in colder at the expense of some QPF. I think this is an overall favorable trade-off. If it can be cooler, you might get more snow due to better ratios even with less QPF. Additionally, it may mitigate heavy, wet, sticky snow that causes power outages. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 SREF snow depth change past 3 runs.. do see a little boost in SNE on the last run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 (edited) 6z hrrr 11z running now 12z will have the extended look range look soon. Will see if there’s any continuity Edited March 12, 2023 by Poco 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 12, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 12, 2023 Shortwave IR really picking up on the airplane contrails this morning. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 12, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 12, 2023 long range hrrr is stronger by 3mb at hour 33, position might be a few miles E. 12z 6z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 12z hrrr coming in nearly the same shield wise but low pressure placement jumpy still 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 12, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, Poco said: 12z hrrr coming in nearly the same shield wise but low pressure placement jumpy still It's definitely stronger. It's really consolidating the energy better, especially juxtaposed against the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Latest hrr still raging at hr 47 too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 12, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 12, 2023 The NAM isn't going to disappoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, MaineJay said: The NAM isn't going to disappoint. What you got for us ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 I can’t believe I’m about to say this. I actually have had plans for this Tuesday for a few weeks now and this will throw a wrench in my plans lol. Hoping it’s honestly not that bad. Yes, this is road dawg. Can’t believe I said this. B 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 12, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, PA road DAWG said: What you got for us ? Just seeing some early indications that is going to organize things a bit better. That SE convection is really causing havoc. Part of my thinking is the HRRR , despite the long range, might be better equipped to handle the intricacies, so I think the NAM follows. I like H7 relative humidity to see how things are interacting. This looks like better consolidation to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Nam coming in hot for eastern pa and def NEPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 12, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 12, 2023 Playing with other models while waiting... JMA looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 12, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 12, 2023 1/2 mile visibility reported at Clarksburg, WV. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 12, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 12, 2023 Nice 850 Low position Lotta energy at 500 shoving into the ny metro area 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 12, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 12, 2023 NAM holding with where the low should be on the 500mb map, letting energy out, not chasing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 12, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 12, 2023 (edited) Didn't check the temp profiles, but this vv at 700mb will hurt someone. Edit This is the peak of it over LI - so much omega with it peaking in the DGZ. Wish this were a few degrees cooler for them. Edited March 12, 2023 by StretchCT 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 12, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 12, 2023 7 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Didn't check the temp profiles, but this vv at 700mb will hurt someone. Edit This is the peak of it over LI - so much omega with it peaking in the DGZ. Wish this were a few degrees cooler for them. Isothermal at the bottom there, huge glomming flakes sticking to everything. If it comes in early morning, that may help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 12, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 12, 2023 (edited) 6z lineup (used 12z nam for clarity). Normal line up is from west to east: NAM,EURO,GFS,NAVY. 6z had NAM,CMC,Euro,GFS,NAVY. Icon and CMC are usually between the GFS and NAM on either side of the Euro but I haven't figured out a single spot for them in the lineup. GFS needs to get in line. Edited March 12, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harley8778 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Man, so close but so far... still can't buy an inch of snow down here. Once again happy for those getting snow that haven't yet... feel like I may have to take a road trip just so I remember what it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 12, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 12, 2023 (edited) Wow, slow mover. Onset of precip into CT/LI is 9z on Monday Still some in the area 51hrs later. Edited March 12, 2023 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryptoWeather Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Still snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 12, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 12, 2023 NDFD loop from WPC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 12, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 12, 2023 Really gotta watch how low pressure forms as the convection pushes off the coast. Some is fairly deep, so adjustments should be expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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