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March 12-15, 2023 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm


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Albany hoisting Watches seemingly for its entire coverage area...this was for the town just to my south:

Quote
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 1 to
  2 feet possible, with higher amounts in the eastern Catskills,
  Berkshires, Taconics and southern Green Mountains.

* WHERE...Portions of northwestern Connecticut, western
  Massachusetts, east central and eastern New York and southern
  Vermont.

* WHEN...From Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening
  commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This has the potential of being a long
  duration and high-impact snow event for eastern New York and
  western New England. Heavy wet snow combined with strong winds
  will likely lead to downed trees and power outages across the
  area. Please begin preparing now for this upcoming winter storm
  event.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

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Upton still meh on this for northern Fairfield County

Screenshot2023-03-11at3_30_30PM.png.ee29fd58a48f04dd7409bfbf2ec4c531.png

Albany with a Winter Storm Watch of one to two feet and more for the Catskills, Berkshires, southern Greens and Taconics

Spoiler
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 1 to
  2 feet possible, with higher amounts in the eastern Catskills,
  Berkshires, Taconics and southern Green Mountains.

* WHERE...Portions of northwestern Connecticut, western
  Massachusetts, east central and eastern New York and southern
  Vermont.

* WHEN...From Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening
  commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This has the potential of being a long
  duration and high-impact snow event for eastern New York and
  western New England. Heavy wet snow combined with strong winds
  will likely lead to downed trees and power outages across the
  area. Please begin preparing now for this upcoming winter storm
  event.

 

Screenshot2023-03-11at3_38_21PM.png.b5c287396835eea9c3f1b3f68d19bc73.png

What's so incredible is that just across the river from Brookfield and northern Newtown is southern Litchfield county, which is forecast for a foot to foot and a half.  Meanwhile the forecast from Upton is under an inch, literally a half mile away.  I get a couple inches difference, but a foot?

Spoiler
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations of one
  to one and a half feet possible. Winds could gust as high as 40
  mph at times.

* WHERE...Hudson and Mohawk Valleys of eastern New York as well
  as southern Litchfield County in northwestern Connecticut.

* WHEN...From Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening
  commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This has the potential of being a long
  duration and high-impact snow event for eastern New York and
  western New England. Heavy wet snow combined with strong winds
  will likely lead to downed trees and power outages across the
  area. Please begin preparing now for this upcoming winter storm
  event.

 

Edited by StretchCT
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16 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

energy pumping into coastal at h5 by hr54

Screen Shot 2023-03-11 at 3.31.21 PM.png

Looks like this results in a stronger storm, but further east.  RGEM was a bit east at 12z, not as far as the 18Z NAM though.

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1 minute ago, StretchCT said:

You can see less involvement from the upper system. Doesn't capture it as early. Less negative tilt. 

namconus_z500_mslp_eus_fh69_trend.thumb.gif.56532cfde669c4e92ddad966aeef9960.gif

 

Interesting that less interaction results in a stronger storm, mighty mean that southern piece is a fair bit stronger than the models have given it credit for.

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Just for comparison's sake, 18z NAM vs its 3km higher rez cousin. 12km a little further out, 3km slightly more tucked to the coast by maybe 60-80 miles

Screen Shot 2023-03-11 at 4.02.20 PM.png

Screen Shot 2023-03-11 at 4.02.06 PM.png

Edited by telejunkie
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12 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Interesting that less interaction results in a stronger storm, mighty mean that southern piece is a fair bit stronger than the models have given it credit for.

It catches up with it later than earlier runs.  But yeah, there's about a 4mb diff from the get go

namconus_ref_frzn_eus_fh51_trend(1).thumb.gif.f2676f011f9b2e9da53843dbbc7dd135.gif

Edited by StretchCT
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7 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

RGEM seems like it's going to inch west. We really want to see increased strength with any westerly solutions to help overcome the warmth that'll also move westward.

A lot of spunk with that initial southern wave is not helping. 

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1 hour ago, StretchCT said:

Upton still meh on this for northern Fairfield County

Screenshot2023-03-11at3_30_30PM.png.ee29fd58a48f04dd7409bfbf2ec4c531.png

Ha - now look!  In the WSW

Spoiler
CTZ005-NYZ067-068-121100-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0002.230313T2300Z-230314T2300Z/
Northern Fairfield-Orange-Putnam-
355 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10
  inches possible.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Northern Fairfield County. In New
  York, Orange and Putnam Counties.

* WHEN...From Monday evening through Tuesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening
  commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Areas south of I-84 in Northern Fairfield
  County may receive a few inches less of snow.

Screenshot2023-03-11at4_36_45PM.png.6e707aa155e50030b9ee87cc79fe40c4.png

By the way coastal flooding again

Screenshot2023-03-11at4_38_37PM.png.b42224b7386224999a70a7aea47e4703.png

Edited by StretchCT
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1 hour ago, StretchCT said:

Upton still meh on this for northern Fairfield County

Screenshot2023-03-11at3_30_30PM.png.ee29fd58a48f04dd7409bfbf2ec4c531.png

Albany with a Winter Storm Watch of one to two feet and more for the Catskills, Berkshires, southern Greens and Taconics

  Reveal hidden contents
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 1 to
  2 feet possible, with higher amounts in the eastern Catskills,
  Berkshires, Taconics and southern Green Mountains.

* WHERE...Portions of northwestern Connecticut, western
  Massachusetts, east central and eastern New York and southern
  Vermont.

* WHEN...From Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening
  commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This has the potential of being a long
  duration and high-impact snow event for eastern New York and
  western New England. Heavy wet snow combined with strong winds
  will likely lead to downed trees and power outages across the
  area. Please begin preparing now for this upcoming winter storm
  event.

 

Screenshot2023-03-11at3_38_21PM.png.b5c287396835eea9c3f1b3f68d19bc73.png

What's so incredible is that just across the river from Brookfield and northern Newtown is southern Litchfield county, which is forecast for a foot to foot and a half.  Meanwhile the forecast from Upton is under an inch, literally a half mile away.  I get a couple inches difference, but a foot?

  Hide contents
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations of one
  to one and a half feet possible. Winds could gust as high as 40
  mph at times.

* WHERE...Hudson and Mohawk Valleys of eastern New York as well
  as southern Litchfield County in northwestern Connecticut.

* WHEN...From Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening
  commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This has the potential of being a long
  duration and high-impact snow event for eastern New York and
  western New England. Heavy wet snow combined with strong winds
  will likely lead to downed trees and power outages across the
  area. Please begin preparing now for this upcoming winter storm
  event.

 

Offices not talking to each other.

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There’s a fine line to how the depictions are changing given the two seperate energies.  Wouldn’t be too attached to any single run, changes are going to occur right up to and after game time with this.  This will not be a cut and dry type scenario 

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Models are placing the surface low next to the vigorous southern piece 

in reality the energy parcel(s) will be more of a field rather than a point, moving the surface low in different direction and along with it the moisture field.  

C1C98C3C-0185-4D1D-93F2-21280B61BB6A.png
 

a lot of changes left I feel , right up into game time 

Edited by Poco
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3k Nam 

 

729432DE-5705-4288-B0AE-F25F8C3CEE37.thumb.png.0303ab9bbebf79332fbf69d706c1d5ed.png
 

energy is in a field, negative trof expanding moisture field west creating trowal like feature over southern New England.  Moisture field will likely cover eastern to east central PA.   

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