Moderators telejunkie Posted March 11, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 11, 2023 Albany hoisting Watches seemingly for its entire coverage area...this was for the town just to my south: Quote ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 feet possible, with higher amounts in the eastern Catskills, Berkshires, Taconics and southern Green Mountains. * WHERE...Portions of northwestern Connecticut, western Massachusetts, east central and eastern New York and southern Vermont. * WHEN...From Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This has the potential of being a long duration and high-impact snow event for eastern New York and western New England. Heavy wet snow combined with strong winds will likely lead to downed trees and power outages across the area. Please begin preparing now for this upcoming winter storm event. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 11, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 11, 2023 18z NAM looks like it's juicing up the southern portion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted March 11, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 11, 2023 energy pumping into coastal at h5 by hr54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 11, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 11, 2023 (edited) Upton still meh on this for northern Fairfield County Albany with a Winter Storm Watch of one to two feet and more for the Catskills, Berkshires, southern Greens and Taconics Spoiler ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 feet possible, with higher amounts in the eastern Catskills, Berkshires, Taconics and southern Green Mountains. * WHERE...Portions of northwestern Connecticut, western Massachusetts, east central and eastern New York and southern Vermont. * WHEN...From Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This has the potential of being a long duration and high-impact snow event for eastern New York and western New England. Heavy wet snow combined with strong winds will likely lead to downed trees and power outages across the area. Please begin preparing now for this upcoming winter storm event. What's so incredible is that just across the river from Brookfield and northern Newtown is southern Litchfield county, which is forecast for a foot to foot and a half. Meanwhile the forecast from Upton is under an inch, literally a half mile away. I get a couple inches difference, but a foot? Spoiler ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations of one to one and a half feet possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph at times. * WHERE...Hudson and Mohawk Valleys of eastern New York as well as southern Litchfield County in northwestern Connecticut. * WHEN...From Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This has the potential of being a long duration and high-impact snow event for eastern New York and western New England. Heavy wet snow combined with strong winds will likely lead to downed trees and power outages across the area. Please begin preparing now for this upcoming winter storm event. Edited March 11, 2023 by StretchCT 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryptoWeather Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 This sums up my winter on Long Island perfectly haha 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 11, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 11, 2023 (edited) Amazing from this To this. Edited March 11, 2023 by StretchCT 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 11, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 11, 2023 16 minutes ago, telejunkie said: energy pumping into coastal at h5 by hr54 Looks like this results in a stronger storm, but further east. RGEM was a bit east at 12z, not as far as the 18Z NAM though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 11, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 11, 2023 Only 160 nm further east this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 11, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 11, 2023 You can see less involvement from the upper system. Doesn't capture it as early. Less negative tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 11, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, CryptoWeather said: This sums up my winter on Long Island perfectly haha Wouldn't take much tug to shift it all west. The stronger storm could easily "curl" more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 11, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 minute ago, StretchCT said: You can see less involvement from the upper system. Doesn't capture it as early. Less negative tilt. Interesting that less interaction results in a stronger storm, mighty mean that southern piece is a fair bit stronger than the models have given it credit for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 11, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 11, 2023 4 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Only 160 nm further east this run No double barrel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted March 11, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 11, 2023 7 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Amazing from this To this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted March 11, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 11, 2023 (edited) Just for comparison's sake, 18z NAM vs its 3km higher rez cousin. 12km a little further out, 3km slightly more tucked to the coast by maybe 60-80 miles Edited March 11, 2023 by telejunkie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 11, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 11, 2023 (edited) 12 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Interesting that less interaction results in a stronger storm, mighty mean that southern piece is a fair bit stronger than the models have given it credit for. It catches up with it later than earlier runs. But yeah, there's about a 4mb diff from the get go Edited March 11, 2023 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 11, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 11, 2023 RGEM seems like it's going to inch west. We really want to see increased strength with any westerly solutions to help overcome the warmth that'll also move westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 7 minutes ago, MaineJay said: RGEM seems like it's going to inch west. We really want to see increased strength with any westerly solutions to help overcome the warmth that'll also move westward. A lot of spunk with that initial southern wave is not helping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 11, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 11, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, StretchCT said: Upton still meh on this for northern Fairfield County Ha - now look! In the WSW Spoiler CTZ005-NYZ067-068-121100- /O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0002.230313T2300Z-230314T2300Z/ Northern Fairfield-Orange-Putnam- 355 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches possible. * WHERE...In Connecticut, Northern Fairfield County. In New York, Orange and Putnam Counties. * WHEN...From Monday evening through Tuesday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Areas south of I-84 in Northern Fairfield County may receive a few inches less of snow. By the way coastal flooding again Edited March 11, 2023 by StretchCT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 11, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 11, 2023 (edited) Uptons updated expected snow map. and high end Edited March 11, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hobie Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 hour ago, StretchCT said: Upton still meh on this for northern Fairfield County Albany with a Winter Storm Watch of one to two feet and more for the Catskills, Berkshires, southern Greens and Taconics Reveal hidden contents ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 feet possible, with higher amounts in the eastern Catskills, Berkshires, Taconics and southern Green Mountains. * WHERE...Portions of northwestern Connecticut, western Massachusetts, east central and eastern New York and southern Vermont. * WHEN...From Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This has the potential of being a long duration and high-impact snow event for eastern New York and western New England. Heavy wet snow combined with strong winds will likely lead to downed trees and power outages across the area. Please begin preparing now for this upcoming winter storm event. What's so incredible is that just across the river from Brookfield and northern Newtown is southern Litchfield county, which is forecast for a foot to foot and a half. Meanwhile the forecast from Upton is under an inch, literally a half mile away. I get a couple inches difference, but a foot? Hide contents ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations of one to one and a half feet possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph at times. * WHERE...Hudson and Mohawk Valleys of eastern New York as well as southern Litchfield County in northwestern Connecticut. * WHEN...From Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This has the potential of being a long duration and high-impact snow event for eastern New York and western New England. Heavy wet snow combined with strong winds will likely lead to downed trees and power outages across the area. Please begin preparing now for this upcoming winter storm event. Offices not talking to each other. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryptoWeather Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 minute ago, JDClapper said: Pretty crazy that an eastward track doesn't help anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 There’s a fine line to how the depictions are changing given the two seperate energies. Wouldn’t be too attached to any single run, changes are going to occur right up to and after game time with this. This will not be a cut and dry type scenario 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 (edited) Models are placing the surface low next to the vigorous southern piece in reality the energy parcel(s) will be more of a field rather than a point, moving the surface low in different direction and along with it the moisture field. a lot of changes left I feel , right up into game time Edited March 11, 2023 by Poco 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 3k Nam energy is in a field, negative trof expanding moisture field west creating trowal like feature over southern New England. Moisture field will likely cover eastern to east central PA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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