March 6-7, 2023 | NE/Mid-Atl Winter Storm

[WeatherFlash]

HRRR seems to be slowly lifting this band feature north with each run. 

[JDClapper]

1 minute ago, WeatherFlash said:

HRRR seems to be slowly lifting this band feature north with each run. 

Yep, right after you showed up and commented. Way to go. Hope you're happy.

 

Time to fully expect a slushy 1" at best.

[TheComet]

2 hours ago, JDClapper said:

Who else is in this line of fire?

I'm in the northwest quadrant of Monroe county, riding the edge that separates the heavier stuff from the lighter, 2 - 4" seems a safe bet at the moment. I haven't seen latest guidance from the short range's.

Edited March 6, 2023 by TheComet

[JDClapper]

Getting closer to seeing where that lucky stripe may be pointed soon.. that blob in southern MI will tell the tale over the next few hours.

[JDClapper]

2 hours ago, WeatherFlash said:

Not sure why that posted twice. I'm looking forward to 18z runs but overall whoever is in that band showed wake up happy tomorrow 

Well, 18z was kind to us. Digital snow rules.

[WeatherFlash]

1 hour ago, JDClapper said:

Yep, right after you showed up and commented. Way to go. Hope you're happy.

 

Time to fully expect a slushy 1" at best.

I tried to stay away lol. I took the bait. 🥲

[Blizz]

Really weird how this could be like a top 3 snowstorm this year total wise for some or us lol

Edited March 6, 2023 by Blizz

[MaineJay]

2 hours ago, WeatherFlash said:

Not sure why that posted twice. I'm looking forward to 18z runs but overall whoever is in that band showed wake up happy tomorrow 

Sometimes the submit button seems "glitchy". I know I double hit it all the time because it seems like my tap didn't register.

 

[MaineJay]

9 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

Well, 18z was kind to us. Digital snow rules.

What's your biggest snowfall this season?

[JDClapper]

Just now, MaineJay said:

What's your biggest snowfall this season?

3.75" just before Christmas. And that was a surprise for the region. Forecasts were 1, maybe 2".

[MaineJay]

12 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

Well, 18z was kind to us. Digital snow rules.

[MaineJay]

Some lighting showing up with this system.

[MaineJay]

WPC

Quote

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

212 PM EST Mon Mar 06 2023 Valid 00Z Tue Mar 07 2023 - 00Z Fri Mar 10 2023

...Northern Mid-Atlantic...

Day 1...

A narrow but potent 500mb shortwave trough exiting the Great Lakes tonight has its sights set on the northern Mid-Atlantic tonight. The setup features the left exit region of a 150 knot 250 mb jet streak positioned over northern PA, northern NJ, and into southern NY with the nose of a strong 100 knot 500mb jet aimed at these same locations. At lower levels, a surface and 850mb low will travel along a warm front that will be situated from the upper OH Valley to the Chesapeake Bay. This will allow for the three aforementioned regions above (northern PA, northern NJ, and into southern NY) to be located just north of the 850mb low track. In addition, along and north of the warm front, CAMs are indicating a strengthening 850-700mb front via increasing WAA aloft, along with a steady surge of 850-700mb moisture. These ingredients are ideal for strong mesoscale-driven banding at the nose of the 500mb jet and north of the warm front, which along with the bulk of the snowfall occurring at night (daytime becomes more difficult for accumulations with an ever rising sun angle this time of year), gives rise to the concern for an intense band of heavy snowfall that could setup from northern PA to both northern NJ and the NYC metro area by early Tuesday morning.

   It was telling that the WPC Snowband Probability Tracker showed a good consensus for snowfall rates as high as 2-2.5"/hr starting close to the Buffalo metro area this evening, then moving across northern PA and along the PA/NY border between 00-06Z Tuesday. These kind of rates can lead to rapid accumulation on all surfaces, as well as near whiteout conditions for those traveling in these areas. Where guidance begins to differ is by the early morning hours Tuesday. Some guidance shows the 850-700mb front beginning to undergo frontolysis or there is too much low-mid level dry air at the onset to overcome as the shield of precipitation approaches northern NJ and the NYC metro, which despite the strong synoptic scale lift and sufficient moisture present, would cause snowfall rates to wain and perhaps struggle to get above 1"/hr. However, the favorable ingredients mentioned does provide a floor for this event, or in other words, enough lift and moisture is present to still cause locally heavy accumulations between 06-12Z Tuesday. Due to the best mesoscale drivers being positioned over northern PA, it is here where guidance is coming into better agreement on heavier totals. Latest forecasts suggest totals of 4-8" have grown in confidence north of I-80 in northern PA with totals closer to that 4-6" range within reach closer to the Delaware Valley in eastern PA. It is in these areas where the experimental PWSSI shows 40-50% probabilities for Minor impacts Monday night. Once you cross the Delaware River, the waning frontogenetic support could lead 1-3" with localized amounts >4" in northern NJ and could encroach into the NYC metro area. The affected areas in eastern PA, northern NJ, and perhaps into the NYC metro could see enough snow accumulation to make for a slushy AM commute on Tuesday, making for what could be a slick and treacherous AM rush hour for motorists.

 

[JDClapper]

[Rickrd]

2-4 here in Nazareth. I’m going for the under. $20

[StretchCT]

1 hour ago, MaineJay said:

Some lighting showing up with this system.

Good temp difference in Ohio right now too.

 

[StretchCT]

HRRR trend

[MaineJay]

Heavy snow at Bradford, PA.

[TLChip]

It sure would be nice for a surprise when I walk out tomorrow… looks like this afternoon trend wasn’t bad

[Sentinel]

3 hours ago, MaineJay said:

I knew you were Neo

[MaineJay]

Meso disco just issued.

Quote

Mesoscale Discussion 0256
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0551 PM CST Mon Mar 06 2023

   Areas affected...Parts of northern PA and western NY

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 062351Z - 070345Z

   SUMMARY...Heavy snow with rates up to 1" per hour is possible this
   evening across parts of northern Pennsylvania and western New York.

   DISCUSSION...Strong zonal flow is present across the eastern Great
   Lakes region with an embedded shortwave trough traveling eastward,
   and the associated DCVA and frontogenesis are providing the
   necessary lift for precipitation. Additionally, a good vertical
   juxtaposition between the lift and the dendritic growth zone should
   support heavy snow. Per mesoanalysis and surface observations,
   wet-bulb temps are in the 32-36F range, which can support heavy snow
   given the expected heavy precipitation rates. Indeed, heavy snow was
   reported at the KBFD METAR site in northwestern Pennsylvania in the
   last hour. With time, the precipitation is expected to translate
   east-southeastward and weaken as the evening progresses.

   ..Supinie.. 03/06/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   42467938 42477928 42427862 42177743 41917639 41557569
               41197553 40907547 40697557 40627591 40707662 40957761
               41237825 41837956 42148019 42337976 42467938 

 

[JDClapper]

Light drips and sprinkles have begun.

42, 27dp

[JDClapper]

Wet flakes already mixing in .. look at that band.  Woof.

[so_whats_happening]

Wow it managed to be something. Well enjoy those up north. Maybe ill get a thunderstorm out of it.

[TheComet]

Judging from the radar, and after so much back and forth by the models, looks like the heaviest stuff will stay to my south. I might be able to get 2".