Moderators Hiramite Posted March 8, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 8, 2023 (edited) 3K NAM 18Z Kuchera Edited March 8, 2023 by Hiramite 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted March 8, 2023 Author Share Posted March 8, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted March 8, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 8, 2023 11 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Things are a bit better in NE OH if you extend it out a few more hours…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted March 8, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 8, 2023 Long AFD by CLE this PM. One key sentence for the forum… The smart money is on the NAM being too far north and ultimately think a low track between the CMC/RGEM models and GFS/Euro is what will pan out. Plus the mention of possible WSWarnings east of Clev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, Hiramite said: Long AFD by CLE this PM. One key sentence for the forum… The smart money is on the NAM being too far north and ultimately think a low track between the CMC/RGEM models and GFS/Euro is what will pan out. Plus the mention of possible WSWarnings east of Clev. I need it about 30 miles south...Hope they are right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 WWA for 4-6". Would be biggest event of the year 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted March 8, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 8, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted March 8, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 8, 2023 Updated regional. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted March 8, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 8, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shiver Me Timbers Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: It was me and I went back and posted what actually fell. South central Michigan had an area of 10'' where as snow depth showed a max of 5'' for that same general location. Other areas didn't end up changing over to snow when they should have so that was just a general modeling fail. Nothing is exact but feel 10:1 and kuchera are far more superior than snow depth. Also noted above but you did include 2 storms together in your post. So based on snow depth above, in theory I-80 from Chicago to Cleveland should record little to no sticking snow, that should easy one to remember for comparison once analysis is released Yes and after both storms I am supposed to see 7" or less than 1". Just like all the other storms, I am extremely doubtful that I will end up closer to the snowfall forecast than 1." I also made it clear I'm talking about Indiana. I haven't paid as close attention to other areas, only the ones with the mixing and temperature issues - and for this area, the snow depth has been a home run compared to the snowfall forecasts, which have been anywhere from 6" to well over a foot for every storm this year. We've not piled up higher than 2" and it has never stuck around for more than a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shiver Me Timbers Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: My question with that would be why not post a snow depth map for Friday? Seems like that would be a better indicator of snowfall amounts from this storm than one valid next Monday. Take a look for yourself... it doesn't change the argument one bit. Never gets higher than an inch here on snow depth charts which has been the case for all but 2 storms this year. For those two storms. we ALMOST covered grass tips during the height of the storm. For both of those storms we were forecast to receive well over a foot. Snow depth > Snowfall forecasts for north central IN for every single storm this year AINEC. Did a ton of snow fall, for extended periods of time? Yes. Did it pile up anywhere near the amount forecast for most areas? No. I will allow that the depth change charts may be more accurate than the total depth. Here is the depth change output by GFS, which is forecasting over 7" for my area in terms of total snowfall. But only up to 2" for depth change. Friendly wager: I will be much closer to 1" than 7" as a maximum depth any time between now and Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 The sad thing is anything that falls more than 2.5 inches and anything that sticks more than 2 inches is my biggest snow of the year and we’re talking the march the weekend the time changes so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevep95 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 35 minutes ago, Shiver Me Timbers said: Take a look for yourself... it doesn't change the argument one bit. Never gets higher than an inch here on snow depth charts which has been the case for all but 2 storms this year. For those two storms. we ALMOST covered grass tips during the height of the storm. For both of those storms we were forecast to receive well over a foot. Snow depth > Snowfall forecasts for north central IN for every single storm this year AINEC. Did a ton of snow fall, for extended periods of time? Yes. Did it pile up anywhere near the amount forecast for most areas? No. I will allow that the depth change charts may be more accurate than the total depth. Here is the depth change output by GFS, which is forecasting over 7" for my area in terms of total snowfall. But only up to 2" for depth change. Friendly wager: I will be much closer to 1" than 7" as a maximum depth any time between now and Monday In theory though taking Monday (almost 2 days removed from the storm) would allow for snow depth to decrease is what I think Hoosier was trying to say. There are also last minute variables that change outcomes. There have been times where I'm forecast for a good amount but the changeover just took too long to occur and ate into the totals. Yea, maybe with these marginal temps not much above freezing, you can't expect much to stick. You very likely will not have 7' in depth either. Sun, daytime, and ground temperatures will immediately play a role. But 7 inches may fall. I don't know. My rule of thumb is give me the model and ratio that shows me the most 🙂 I just enjoy dreaming. Hope you get a decent showing and can enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevep95 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Does anyone have 18z Euro? Thanks in advance 🙂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted March 9, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, Stevep95 said: Does anyone have 18z Euro? Thanks in advance 🙂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 14 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said: Could you show the MI map by chance please?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted March 9, 2023 Author Share Posted March 9, 2023 11 minutes ago, easton229 said: Could you show the MI map by chance please?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted March 9, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 9, 2023 11 minutes ago, easton229 said: Could you show the MI map by chance please?? Only because you said please. 😆 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shiver Me Timbers Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 (edited) 57 minutes ago, Stevep95 said: In theory though taking Monday (almost 2 days removed from the storm) would allow for snow depth to decrease is what I think Hoosier was trying to say. There are also last minute variables that change outcomes. There have been times where I'm forecast for a good amount but the changeover just took too long to occur and ate into the totals. Yea, maybe with these marginal temps not much above freezing, you can't expect much to stick. You very likely will not have 7' in depth either. Sun, daytime, and ground temperatures will immediately play a role. But 7 inches may fall. I don't know. My rule of thumb is give me the model and ratio that shows me the most 🙂 I just enjoy dreaming. Hope you get a decent showing and can enjoy it. I looked at depth charts through the entire period and gave you all the one with the highest depth. We may see an inch or two accumulate. I have big doubts that we see anywhere near 6-7 inches. Or 5" tomorrow.. And two more over the weekend. However you slice it. At least with these ones the temperatures are a little bit cooler than the last few and tomorrow's appears to come mostly after sundown and before sunup so I could be wrong. Point remains: for everyone south of, say, South Bend, for every single storm since the pre-Christmas one, the models have shown a half foot or more (sometimes a foot or more) while the snow depth depicted a more accurate idea of only very small accumulations even after extended periods of snowfall. And even up there and in Michigan, the depth change totals were far closer to reality Edited March 9, 2023 by Shiver Me Timbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shiver Me Timbers Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 (edited) Looks like NWS agrees with me. This is for central Marshall county where the EC shows 5"+ and GFS 7" Here in central Cass, the models show 2-4" tomorrow and NWS doesn't even mention snow in the forecast, just plain ol' rain Fool me once, shame on-- shame on you. Fool me... uh, ya can't get fooled again! Edited March 9, 2023 by Shiver Me Timbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shiver Me Timbers Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 (edited) And here is NWS for Northern Cass. EC clearly shows 3"+ and GFS 5"+ tomorrow night, but snow depth change shows something more like this: Big difference between 1-3" and 4-8" (Marshall) or "little or no accumulation" and 2-4" (cass) Don't ya think? Edited March 9, 2023 by Shiver Me Timbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mafa Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Hello NAM. Little front burst to get central Ohio in the game. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mafa Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted March 9, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 9, 2023 59 minutes ago, Shiver Me Timbers said: And here is NWS for Northern Cass. EC clearly shows 3"+ and GFS 5"+ tomorrow night, but snow depth change shows something more like this: Big difference between 1-3" and 4-8" (Marshall) or "little or no accumulation" and 2-4" (cass) Don't ya think? With this crappy of a winter for many of us, I don’t think we’re really willing to care what accumulates as long as it’s snowing. Your point has been made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted March 9, 2023 Author Share Posted March 9, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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