March 9-10, 2023 | Plains/MW/OV/GL Winter Storm

[Ohiobuckeye45]

FV3

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

3KM

[Cary67]

Under WSW but those haven't panned out well this year unless you like ice. Will send some pics for whatever falls

[Stevep95]

GFS coming in more south.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

[Hiramite]

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Cary67 said:

Under WSW but those haven't panned out well this year unless you like ice. Will send some pics for whatever falls

Was slightly surprised to see them pull the trigger on a watch, but I guess confidence was sufficient.  One of those that could go either way, and there's not much practical difference between high end advisory and low end warning amounts.

[BuckeyeGal]

[NWOhioChaser]

I’ll take my 1-3” and run with it thanks. Won’t stick around too long with ground temps being marginally cold

[ncinthenext3]

We'll just have to wait and see if that snow thrower's coming out 1 and 1 time only this season.  I can see a lot of melting as it hits the ground, but it's falling mostly at night it looks like.  A decent stretch of cooler weather afterwards, so, should enough pile up it just might hang around a couple days before the sun lasers it away.

[BuckeyeGal]

Pulling for you NW Ohio folks with this one!

[Hiramite]

Someone in my wife’s exercise class this morning said we’re going to get 10” of snow this weekend!!!  Hot diggity dog!!

Edited March 8, 2023 by Hiramite

[Hoosier]

Late morning update from NWS Chicago by Castro, who is a fantastic met from that office.

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
1140 AM CST Wed Mar 8 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1140 AM CST Wed Mar 8 2023

No changes were made to the Winter Storm Watch in effect for the
Wisconsin state line counties. The key points from the early AM
AFD remain similar and there`s still generally speaking two camps,
the higher QPF and snow NCEP guidance (including some but not all
CAMs) and the lower QPF and snow foreign guidance. Heaviest
precipitation rates, possibly including some rain at onset, look
to be mid-late Thursday afternoon into the early evening. Part of
that includes daylight hours and temperatures starting a few to
several degrees above freezing, so it`s uncertain how long heavier
snow rates will take after onset to result in pavement accumulations
and worsening impacts. Thinking is that decisions on the winter
headlines should be able to be made this afternoon after assessing
the rest of the 12z model cycle data, which primarily is the
ECMWF and its ensemble at this point.

Castro

[Hiramite]

12Z Euro

[Shiver Me Timbers]

Once again models showing up to half a foot for most of north-central IN and once again the snow depth charts seem to paint a more likely scenario due to mixing/ marginal temperatures with snow depth on Monday showing half an inch. Some disagreed last time I mentioned the snow depth charts being more accurate but they simply are far more reasonable an expectation than half a foot of snow. They've been right every time this year for my area. When models predicted several inches of snow or more the snow depth always depicted a reasonable couple inches or less. Not once have the total snowfall numbers panned out -- kuchera or 10:1. Far as I can tell, the models only go by "is it snowing" and then factor in the qpf. They don't appear to take in mixing/surface temps. 

vs.

Edited March 8, 2023 by Shiver Me Timbers

[Hoosier]

8 minutes ago, Shiver Me Timbers said:

Once again models showing up to half a foot for most of north-central IN and once again the snow depth charts seem to paint a more likely scenario due to mixing/ marginal temperatures with snow depth on Monday showing half an inch. Some disagreed last time I mentioned the snow depth charts being more accurate but they simply are far more reasonable an expectation than half a foot of snow. They've been right every time this year for my area. When models predicted several inches of snow or more the snow depth always depicted a reasonable couple inches or less. Not once have the total snowfall numbers panned out -- kuchera or 10:1. Far as I can tell, the models only go by "is it snowing" and then factor in the qpf. They don't appear to take in mixing/surface temps. 

vs.

My question with that would be why not post a snow depth map for Friday?  Seems like that would be a better indicator of snowfall amounts from this storm than one valid next Monday.  

[BuckeyeGal]

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

My question with that would be why not post a snow depth map for Friday?  Seems like that would be a better indicator of snowfall amounts from this storm than one valid next Monday.  

[Ohiobuckeye45]

GEFS

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

1 hour ago, Shiver Me Timbers said:

Once again models showing up to half a foot for most of north-central IN and once again the snow depth charts seem to paint a more likely scenario due to mixing/ marginal temperatures with snow depth on Monday showing half an inch. Some disagreed last time I mentioned the snow depth charts being more accurate but they simply are far more reasonable an expectation than half a foot of snow. They've been right every time this year for my area. When models predicted several inches of snow or more the snow depth always depicted a reasonable couple inches or less. Not once have the total snowfall numbers panned out -- kuchera or 10:1. Far as I can tell, the models only go by "is it snowing" and then factor in the qpf. They don't appear to take in mixing/surface temps. 

vs.

It was me and I went back and posted what actually fell. South central Michigan had an area of 10'' where as snow depth showed a max of 5'' for that same general location. Other areas didn't end up changing over to snow when they should have so that was just a general modeling fail. Nothing is exact but feel 10:1 and kuchera are far more superior than snow depth. Also noted above but you did include 2 storms together in your post.

So based on snow depth above, in theory I-80 from Chicago to Cleveland should record little to no sticking snow, that should easy one to remember for comparison once analysis is released 

Edited March 8, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45

[Hiramite]

The NAM/SREF seems to be finally coming in line with the majority of the other models.  The northern OH sites really jumped with the 15z.

[Hiramite]

CLE bumps things up a bit along the Lake.   Regional map not updated yet.

[Hiramite]

Both of the 18Z NAMs are south of the 12Z runs. (Still running….)

[Ohiobuckeye45]

13 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

The NAM/SREF seems to be finally coming in line with the majority of the other models.  The northern OH sites really jumped with the 15z.

yeah definitely came south, finally

[Ohiobuckeye45]

still on the outside looking in, but still well within hail mary range

[Hoosier]

24 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

It was me and I went back and posted what actually fell. South central Michigan had an area of 10'' where as snow depth showed a max of 5'' for that same general location. Other areas didn't end up changing over to snow when they should have so that was just a general modeling fail. Nothing is exact but feel 10:1 and kuchera are far more superior than snow depth. Also noted above but you did include 2 storms together in your post.

So based on snow depth above, in theory I-80 from Chicago to Cleveland should record little to no sticking snow, that should easy one to remember for comparison once analysis is released 

I think the snow depth maps shine brightest in situations with very marginal/above freezing temps, but they will tend to underdo what actually falls when it's colder. 

10:1 is often a decent general guide but obviously there are situations when that won't work so well.  Storms that are colder with good dendrite production will tend to bust the 10:1 maps.

Kuchera does factor in temps, so there are times when it will show less than 10:1, but Kuchera is also vulnerable to overdoing it in very cold storms (often have smaller flakes) and in windy storms (dendrite shattering).  Really have to have situational awareness to determine what is the most appropriate guide in a given storm.