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March 9-10, 2023 | Plains/MW/OV/GL Winter Storm


Ohiobuckeye45

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18z NAM is looking good for Chicago area at the end of the run.  

I've only used my snowblower once this entire season.  Maybe could've used it a few days ago but there wasn't a huge amount of snow on the driveway and I knew it would melt the next day.

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5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

18z NAM is looking good for Chicago area at the end of the run.  

I've only used my snowblower once this entire season.  Maybe could've used it a few days ago but there wasn't a huge amount of snow on the driveway and I knew it would melt the next day.

NAM forecast sounding for the area at 6z Fri

2023030618_NAM_084_41.88-87.63_severe_ml.thumb.png.ae286eb84675be936e80a0022a6de0b1.png

Lapse rates in excess of 7 in the DGZ, along with good low to mid level moisture (solid green line almost on top of solid red line) and some lift intersecting the DGZ.  Also have a deep isothermal layer below 750 mb or so.  This kind of profile would probably have some decent sized flakes and snowfall rates.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

NAM forecast sounding for the area at 6z Fri

2023030618_NAM_084_41.88-87.63_severe_ml.thumb.png.ae286eb84675be936e80a0022a6de0b1.png

Lapse rates in excess of 7 in the DGZ, along with good low to mid level moisture (solid green line almost on top of solid red line) and some lift intersecting the DGZ.  Also have a deep isothermal layer below 750 mb or so.  This kind of profile would probably have some decent sized flakes and snowfall rates.

84hr NAM shame on you. Especially after it only caved within 12hrs of last weeks event up by us.lol

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Well, at least things are trending/creeping southward atm...although the 18Z GFS appears to have stalled.    In any event, enough to keep me interested.

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32 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

84hr NAM shame on you. Especially after it only caved within 12hrs of last weeks event up by us.lol

Well yeah, always risky talking about the 84 hour NAM.  That was some crazy model spread close-in on that last storm.  Wasn't the finest performance from the Euro/EPS either, but the NAM was just next level bad.

Edited by Hoosier
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3 hours ago, Cary67 said:

Grass topper event #4 on the season. Snow depth change probably better estimate of snowfall now but don't have access on Euro.

 

 

 

 

 

sn10_acc-imp.conus.png

Could be a grass topper plus.  Perhaps even a candidate for biggest snowfall this season at ORD?!  

This storm does have a better airmass to work with compared to the recent one which was heavily driven by dynamic cooling.  Barring a northern shift in track, temps should drop below freezing in N IL during the storm.  A lot of it also falls after dark in our area.  All in all, I think some reasons for optimism, which we have not had too much this season.

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Still have the signal for steep lapse rates in the DGZ, and the system will be closed off in the low/mid levels.  I get the pessimism with how the season has gone overall (well, except Wisconsin which has done ok) but this one has a number of factors in its favor.

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18 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

looks like alot more members involved with this shift south

Yeah, for OH the Findlay to Akron to Youngstown gang becoming involved.  Next “stop”, the Capital City.

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32 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said:

Have mostly been on the fringe of things this past winter, nothing new for this one as well. Will see if things change the next few days. 

The GFS is looking pretty snowy for Toledo as of today. I'm not sure if I am supposed to have any confidence in such things the way things gave gone. 

Let me interpret the statement that NWOhioChaser made. I have not actually seen a snowflake fall since January, since I was asleep for our 0.9" of snow in February. Meanwhile, 6.50" of precipitation happened at Toledo, nearly a record for the February 1st-March 7th time frame here. As I drove around some country roads yesterday, I saw various areas where there are half-acre puddles in the farms, and people's front yards underwater.

Living out West for 16 years, I actually never saw much of a puddle unless the snow was melting on my street in a slushy crapfest. Or... when a giant flood hit the region (2013) one year after a super drought and fire (2012).

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