Ohiobuckeye45 Posted March 6, 2023 Author Share Posted March 6, 2023 CMC and UK show promise for the one following this, GFS was suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted March 6, 2023 Author Share Posted March 6, 2023 last frame of the NAM looks good early for i-80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 2 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Michigan getting its years worth of snow the last 3 weeks of winter 😄 Of course when I was done and over with winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted March 6, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 6, 2023 Euro was south and weaker. (I also started a thread for the system after this one!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 18z NAM is looking good for Chicago area at the end of the run. I've only used my snowblower once this entire season. Maybe could've used it a few days ago but there wasn't a huge amount of snow on the driveway and I knew it would melt the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 18z NAM is looking good for Chicago area at the end of the run. I've only used my snowblower once this entire season. Maybe could've used it a few days ago but there wasn't a huge amount of snow on the driveway and I knew it would melt the next day. NAM forecast sounding for the area at 6z Fri Lapse rates in excess of 7 in the DGZ, along with good low to mid level moisture (solid green line almost on top of solid red line) and some lift intersecting the DGZ. Also have a deep isothermal layer below 750 mb or so. This kind of profile would probably have some decent sized flakes and snowfall rates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted March 6, 2023 Author Share Posted March 6, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: NAM forecast sounding for the area at 6z Fri Lapse rates in excess of 7 in the DGZ, along with good low to mid level moisture (solid green line almost on top of solid red line) and some lift intersecting the DGZ. Also have a deep isothermal layer below 750 mb or so. This kind of profile would probably have some decent sized flakes and snowfall rates. 84hr NAM shame on you. Especially after it only caved within 12hrs of last weeks event up by us.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted March 6, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 6, 2023 Well, at least things are trending/creeping southward atm...although the 18Z GFS appears to have stalled. In any event, enough to keep me interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 (edited) 32 minutes ago, Cary67 said: 84hr NAM shame on you. Especially after it only caved within 12hrs of last weeks event up by us.lol Well yeah, always risky talking about the 84 hour NAM. That was some crazy model spread close-in on that last storm. Wasn't the finest performance from the Euro/EPS either, but the NAM was just next level bad. Edited March 6, 2023 by Hoosier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted March 7, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 7, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted March 7, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 7, 2023 GFS and Canadian trending SE and weaker. I don't know what the Euro shows. (Last two 0Z and 12Z runs.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 (edited) Grass topper event #4 on the season. Snow depth change probably better estimate of snowfall now but don't have access on Euro. Edited March 7, 2023 by Cary67 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted March 7, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 7, 2023 (edited) 🎶 "Californy is the place you we ought to be" 🎶 Edited March 7, 2023 by Hiramite 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 1 hour ago, Hiramite said: 🎶 "Californy is the place you we ought to be" 🎶 Will be interesting to see how the drought situation plays out in the west with the amount of precip they have gotten there this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 NAM buries southern Wisconsin and southern MI. Good thing it’s been super reliable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 3 hours ago, Cary67 said: Grass topper event #4 on the season. Snow depth change probably better estimate of snowfall now but don't have access on Euro. Could be a grass topper plus. Perhaps even a candidate for biggest snowfall this season at ORD?! This storm does have a better airmass to work with compared to the recent one which was heavily driven by dynamic cooling. Barring a northern shift in track, temps should drop below freezing in N IL during the storm. A lot of it also falls after dark in our area. All in all, I think some reasons for optimism, which we have not had too much this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Still have the signal for steep lapse rates in the DGZ, and the system will be closed off in the low/mid levels. I get the pessimism with how the season has gone overall (well, except Wisconsin which has done ok) but this one has a number of factors in its favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted March 7, 2023 Author Share Posted March 7, 2023 looks like alot more members involved with this shift south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted March 7, 2023 Author Share Posted March 7, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted March 7, 2023 Author Share Posted March 7, 2023 still outside looking in by 1-2 counties *sigh* 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted March 7, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 7, 2023 18 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: looks like alot more members involved with this shift south Yeah, for OH the Findlay to Akron to Youngstown gang becoming involved. Next “stop”, the Capital City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 (edited) Have mostly been on the fringe of things this past winter, nothing new for this one as well. Will see if things change the next few days. Edited March 7, 2023 by NWOhioChaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted March 7, 2023 Author Share Posted March 7, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 32 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said: Have mostly been on the fringe of things this past winter, nothing new for this one as well. Will see if things change the next few days. The GFS is looking pretty snowy for Toledo as of today. I'm not sure if I am supposed to have any confidence in such things the way things gave gone. Let me interpret the statement that NWOhioChaser made. I have not actually seen a snowflake fall since January, since I was asleep for our 0.9" of snow in February. Meanwhile, 6.50" of precipitation happened at Toledo, nearly a record for the February 1st-March 7th time frame here. As I drove around some country roads yesterday, I saw various areas where there are half-acre puddles in the farms, and people's front yards underwater. Living out West for 16 years, I actually never saw much of a puddle unless the snow was melting on my street in a slushy crapfest. Or... when a giant flood hit the region (2013) one year after a super drought and fire (2012). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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