Jump to content

March 9-10, 2023 | Plains/MW/OV/GL Winter Storm


Ohiobuckeye45

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Hi.  I'm new here.  This looks like a nice board.  :classic_cool:

This should be a pretty decent snowmaker for somebody.  Question of course is where.  Right now I think the closer you are to I-80 or north, the better.  Not that it can't trend more favorably for areas farther south, but that seems like the lower probability proposition at this point.

Won't post a comparison for every single model, but looking at the 12z runs, one thing that stands out is just how amplified the GFS is (and also the GDPS to a degree) compared to the  ECMWF.  Deeper trough in the western Plains with more ridging out ahead, which leads to a storm that cuts pretty far northwest on the GFS vs the more southern Euro track.

 

500hv.conus.thumb.png.f3ed34264d78ddeb30763fa394164d12.png

 

500hv.conus-2.thumb.png.257fba6547cdf92262cbc55a203e6e23.png

 

500hv.conus-3.thumb.png.3bb207f55de47e9772a26bf5a1033f1e.png

 

Whatever ends up happening with this, it looks pretty active going forward and not particularly warm on a consistent basis.  Those hoping for a sustained early spring might have to wait.

Good to see you posting here.

  • LIKE 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Hi.  I'm new here.  This looks like a nice board.  :classic_cool:

This should be a pretty decent snowmaker for somebody.  Question of course is where.  Right now I think the closer you are to I-80 or north, the better.  Not that it can't trend more favorably for areas farther south, but that seems like the lower probability proposition at this point.

Won't post a comparison for every single model, but looking at the 12z runs, one thing that stands out is just how amplified the GFS is (and also the GDPS to a degree) compared to the  ECMWF.  Deeper trough in the western Plains with more ridging out ahead, which leads to a storm that cuts pretty far northwest on the GFS vs the more southern Euro track.

 

500hv.conus.thumb.png.f3ed34264d78ddeb30763fa394164d12.png

 

500hv.conus-2.thumb.png.257fba6547cdf92262cbc55a203e6e23.png

 

500hv.conus-3.thumb.png.3bb207f55de47e9772a26bf5a1033f1e.png

 

Whatever ends up happening with this, it looks pretty active going forward and not particularly warm on a consistent basis.  Those hoping for a sustained early spring might have to wait.

Welcome, seen you over at Americanwx. Its nice to go back and forth for the knowledge. Especially in the NE with all the mets.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Admin
5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Hi.  I'm new here.  This looks like a nice board.  :classic_cool:

This should be a pretty decent snowmaker for somebody.  Question of course is where.  Right now I think the closer you are to I-80 or north, the better.  Not that it can't trend more favorably for areas farther south, but that seems like the lower probability proposition at this point.

Won't post a comparison for every single model, but looking at the 12z runs, one thing that stands out is just how amplified the GFS is (and also the GDPS to a degree) compared to the  ECMWF.  Deeper trough in the western Plains with more ridging out ahead, which leads to a storm that cuts pretty far northwest on the GFS vs the more southern Euro track.

 

500hv.conus.thumb.png.f3ed34264d78ddeb30763fa394164d12.png

 

500hv.conus-2.thumb.png.257fba6547cdf92262cbc55a203e6e23.png

 

500hv.conus-3.thumb.png.3bb207f55de47e9772a26bf5a1033f1e.png

 

Whatever ends up happening with this, it looks pretty active going forward and not particularly warm on a consistent basis.  Those hoping for a sustained early spring might have to wait.

Welcome! Beautiful first post. 🙌🏻

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, Hiramite said:

NOWData is a good spot.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=iln

February recap:  Col, Cinci and ILN all a Trace, Day 0.1". 😩

 

12 hours ago, FortySixAnd32 said:

First time of no recordable snow in Columbus in the month of February since they started tracking!!! 

Thanks for that @Hiramite we got a trace here @FortySixAnd32

Messjng around on that site I found this as well. The least snowiest February on record. I thought I hadn’t seen any snow for the month of February. 

7B633455-6CDC-4E1F-B4ED-943FB44C8394.png

  • THUMBS UP 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • The title was changed to March 9th-11th, 2023 | Plains/MW/OV/GL Winter Storm
  • Moderators

I don't know if it means anything for the upcoming systems, but today's weak system passing thru OH trended south about 50-100 miles during the last 36-48 hours.

  • THUMBS UP 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Moderators

FWIW, latest model verification numbers.

For those who don't know, the closer the line/data point to 1.0, the more accurate the model has been.  The big 4 (gfs, cmc, ukm, ecm) are listed plus 3 (cfsr, imd, fno) we don't see used on this forum.

image.thumb.png.96bfc4913a0a88bb7c3f941eee2bd94b.png

 

 

  • LIKE 1
  • THANKS 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Admin
2 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

A new thread probably needs created for the Miller B type storm still clinging to life after this one. Just in case there are a few who are still in the path of this one in the lakes/MW

 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

I'll make a thread after the midday runs if it's still there.

  • LIKE 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

GFS coming SE....Chicago/SEMI back in it

 

snku_024h-imp.conus.png

Speaking of Chicago, they've only had 10 winters that had sub-20" snowfall.  Need 2.1" to get there.  But even if it doesn't happen with this storm, the pattern looks favorable/cold enough to surpass 20" at some point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...