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March 9-10, 2023 | Plains/MW/OV/GL Winter Storm


Ohiobuckeye45

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1 hour ago, easton229 said:

Man, I hope you guys in the OV can cash in on this. I got to have my season ended yesterday, time for everyone else to get theirs!

Only thing worse than a miss is a near miss. ORD still at17" for the season. With -EPO and more important a -NAO in place by mid March this system will likely be more of a GEFS Miller B type system. At this point just in wait mode for Spring. Only 6 more weeks till my area gets there. 

19CAB7FE-423A-499D-A3CA-CA36D5684FEE.png.fc8c944b43fe07f2607080945cfdcc3b.png

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2 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

One thing I will say is that block is strong which could force the track south 🤔 image.thumb.png.6e42b8bd93fa4d879d81cc9bdedc25a9.png

image.thumb.png.4b3b50770a1e233c997c6d4e847979ff.png

Seems like a good place to leave this ... sorry it's not a bigger image, but the similarities are too many to list

image.gif.dd0ed2a3383cc7cba8fc4be1694e0aef.gif

Edited by StLweatherjunkie
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So much variance and model changes per run it’s not even worth tracking ha. Still looking like a Miller B but those usually don’t work out for our region unless it originates from the Deep South. 

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I honestly don’t remember the last accumulating snow we had. Did we get any snow in February. I missed checking out ILN’s month recap… I’d always welcome snow if it’s going to be a good one but if it’s just a dusting or an inch just give me spring.

 

Does ILN archive those reports somewhere?

Edited by Snow____
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33 minutes ago, Snow____ said:

I honestly don’t remember the last accumulating snow we had. Did we get any snow in February. I missed checking out ILN’s month recap… I’d always welcome snow if it’s going to be a good one but if it’s just a dusting or an inch just give me spring.

 

Does ILN archive those reports somewhere?

First time of no recordable snow in Columbus in the month of February since they started tracking!!! 

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8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Hi.  I'm new here.  This looks like a nice board.  :classic_cool:

This should be a pretty decent snowmaker for somebody.  Question of course is where.  Right now I think the closer you are to I-80 or north, the better.  Not that it can't trend more favorably for areas farther south, but that seems like the lower probability proposition at this point.

Won't post a comparison for every single model, but looking at the 12z runs, one thing that stands out is just how amplified the GFS is (and also the GDPS to a degree) compared to the  ECMWF.  Deeper trough in the western Plains with more ridging out ahead, which leads to a storm that cuts pretty far northwest on the GFS vs the more southern Euro track.

 

500hv.conus.thumb.png.f3ed34264d78ddeb30763fa394164d12.png

 

500hv.conus-2.thumb.png.257fba6547cdf92262cbc55a203e6e23.png

 

500hv.conus-3.thumb.png.3bb207f55de47e9772a26bf5a1033f1e.png

 

Whatever ends up happening with this, it looks pretty active going forward and not particularly warm on a consistent basis.  Those hoping for a sustained early spring might have to wait.

Welcome!!! 👍

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Hi.  I'm new here.  This looks like a nice board.  :classic_cool:

This should be a pretty decent snowmaker for somebody.  Question of course is where.  Right now I think the closer you are to I-80 or north, the better.  Not that it can't trend more favorably for areas farther south, but that seems like the lower probability proposition at this point.

Won't post a comparison for every single model, but looking at the 12z runs, one thing that stands out is just how amplified the GFS is (and also the GDPS to a degree) compared to the  ECMWF.  Deeper trough in the western Plains with more ridging out ahead, which leads to a storm that cuts pretty far northwest on the GFS vs the more southern Euro track.

 

500hv.conus.thumb.png.f3ed34264d78ddeb30763fa394164d12.png

 

500hv.conus-2.thumb.png.257fba6547cdf92262cbc55a203e6e23.png

 

500hv.conus-3.thumb.png.3bb207f55de47e9772a26bf5a1033f1e.png

 

Whatever ends up happening with this, it looks pretty active going forward and not particularly warm on a consistent basis.  Those hoping for a sustained early spring might have to wait.

Welcome!!! 

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