Stevep95 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Tomorrow we set up a new thread for next weekends potential storm and play this game another week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted March 9, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 9, 2023 For those wondering about the WWA... The NWS will remove the “Advisory” headline from its “Watch, Warning, and Advisory” (WWA) system in favor of plain language headlines. Additionally, the “Special Weather Statement” headline will also be removed and transitioned to plain language. Exceptions to this will include Center Weather Advisory and space weather and tropical cyclone advisories which are used to contain descriptive information only. Also, Small Craft Advisory will transition to Warning rather than plain language and options for Tsunami Advisory are still being considered. The current “Watch” and “Warning” headlines, as well as our criteria for issuing them, will remain unchanged. To provide time for public outreach, partner adjustments, and NWS policy and software development, this change will not occur before 2024. https://www.weather.gov/hazardsimplification/revampprogress 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 42 minutes ago, Chinook said: Rooting for the HREF max snowfall amount! Lock it in!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 22 minutes ago, Hiramite said: For those wondering about the WWA... The NWS will remove the “Advisory” headline from its “Watch, Warning, and Advisory” (WWA) system in favor of plain language headlines. Additionally, the “Special Weather Statement” headline will also be removed and transitioned to plain language. Exceptions to this will include Center Weather Advisory and space weather and tropical cyclone advisories which are used to contain descriptive information only. Also, Small Craft Advisory will transition to Warning rather than plain language and options for Tsunami Advisory are still being considered. The current “Watch” and “Warning” headlines, as well as our criteria for issuing them, will remain unchanged. To provide time for public outreach, partner adjustments, and NWS policy and software development, this change will not occur before 2024. https://www.weather.gov/hazardsimplification/revampprogress If we get a Tsunami Warning here, it's over!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted March 9, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 9, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Pretty torchy right now with upper 30s all the way into Wisconsin. Temps will drop of course after precip onset with evaporative and dynamic cooling, so it's a question of how long will it take to get down toward freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 3-4" reported in Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Updated graphic from DTX. Added a little lollipop of 6-8” which I happen to fall into! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted March 9, 2023 Author Share Posted March 9, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: Pretty torchy right now with upper 30s all the way into Wisconsin. Temps will drop of course after precip onset with evaporative and dynamic cooling, so it's a question of how long will it take to get down toward freezing. Rockford and Madison dropped from the upper 30s down to 32 degrees about 45-60 minutes after snow began. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted March 10, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 10, 2023 FWIW, I left Youngstown at 6:30PM, car thermo read 43. Half hour later and 25 miles NW in Hiram, car thermo read 37. My two weather stations read 34 & 35 at 7:30PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted March 10, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 10, 2023 Latest regional. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted March 10, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 10, 2023 Something we discussed on here in regards to issuing headlines even though criteria may not be met. From CLE: This period of road impacts (in a winter that`s barely snowed) occurring either during the commute or shortly thereafter justifies the issuance of a Winter Weather Advisory, even in some counties where widespread 4"+ snow may not be reached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted March 10, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 10, 2023 (edited) Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 333 PM EST Thu Mar 09 2023 For the primary low moving south of the Great Lakes, there is likely to be a region of intense deformation and some fgen north of the low track. Regional soundings across this area suggest the potential for impressive UVVs into the saturated DGZ, which is topped additionally by some negative theta-e lapse rates suggesting the potential for CSI and 1+"/hr snowfall rates as depicted by the WPC prototype tool. The low remains progressive, SLRs are likely to be below climo within the WAA, and in some areas these rates will be fighting against the increasing March sun angle. However, there is likely to be at least a band of heavier snow from the western shore of Lake Michigan where some lake enhancement is likely, through southern lower Michigan to along the Lake Erie shore, into central Pennsylvania. WPC probabilities for 6+ inches are as high as 80% near Milwaukee, WI and northward towards the Door Peninsula due to lake enhancement, but are still impressive around 50% across lower MI eastward through Lake Erie including the Chautauqua Ridge and into central PA. Some of this snow east of the Great Lakes will be enhanced by some LES behind the low on increasing north winds. Edited March 10, 2023 by Hiramite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted March 10, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 10, 2023 Final Mini SREF Update: 9Z, 15Z, 21Z: Chicago/ORD: 4.9/4.6/4.0 Fort Wayne: 3.3/2.9/2.3 Detroit/DTW: 4.9/4.8/3.3 Clev: 3.2/3.0/3.2 🙄 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 (edited) -SN here Edited March 10, 2023 by Chinook 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 5.2" here 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted March 10, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 10, 2023 (edited) Light snow just started here after a bit of sleet, 32°. MBY still on the fence, hoping for 2". The rumored 10" from earlier in the week not looking too promising atm. 😀 Edited March 10, 2023 by Hiramite 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted March 10, 2023 Author Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, Cary67 said: 5.2" here Awesome! Congrats, no trouble with accumulating I see 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Awesome! Congrats, no trouble with accumulating I see Temps dropped yesterday afternoon from 36F to 31F after precip rates increased. Some totals of 6.8" at RFD and at least 8" in GRR Update: MKE 10.1" MSN 7" Edited March 10, 2023 by Cary67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted March 10, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: no trouble with accumulating I see Granted I only have a dusting atm, but it started accumulating as soon as it fell here. We'll see how things go once the sun climbs....and depending on cloud thickness. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted March 10, 2023 Author Share Posted March 10, 2023 7PM will be a better guage because it's still snowing in most areas but you can already make the compare for areas like Chicago/Wilwaukee etc. Where depth was expected to be basically 0. Note the analysis runs through 6 A.M. central so anything that has fallen since and will continue to fall will be captured at 7pm est. Added radar shot for reference. Also worth noting it's important not to mix up a "model fail" with an algo fail, so it would be more accurate to look at qpf totals as well. The GFS seemed to have a good handle, so I've used the 12z from yesterday as snow was already making its way in to Iowa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted March 10, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 10, 2023 Light snow continues at 32, closing in on a 1/2". "Flake" size is small but dense, low ratio stuff. As of 8AMish, accumulating on untreated roads especially in the spots where there are trees that block the afternoon sun...and on the north facing hill in front of the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted March 10, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 10, 2023 12Z HRRR over the next 24hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigben89 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Even the most recent models yesterday were off from today's weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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