Admin MaineJay Posted March 9, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted March 9, 2023 WPC Quote Farther to the east as the secondary low develops and becomes dominant, generally early D2 /Friday night into Saturday morning/ the inverted trough beneath the theta-e ridge should pivot southward along the Mid-Atlantic coast from near New York City to Philadelphia. Models fluctuate greatly with the position and intensity of this trough, and overall ascent is weakening with time, but this could result in a subtly over-performing snowfall somewhere near the NY/NJ/CT tri-state area or eastern PA. WPC probabilities are modest for 4 inches except in the higher terrain of the eastern Poconos and southern Catskills, but WSE plumes feature a lot of spread indicating the potential for some over-performing snow where this convergence band pivots into early Saturday morning. This event could also produce some "conversational" snowflakes into the I-95 corridor as far south as Washington, D.C., either Friday morning in the WAA or Saturday morning as the inverted trough shifts southward, a big deal in an otherwise snow less winter so far for those areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 9, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted March 9, 2023 3 hours ago, LiveWire_13 said: Hey, all. Feel a little weird posting here and not the other site, but I'll leave that for now. Nice to see so many familiar AW faces. I watched Steven DiMartino's stream last night and he seemed sold on this winter's progressive trend keeping both storms from much beyond a little white rain and getting driven OTS. I'm curious to hear what y'all's thoughts are. Welcome! Glad you found us, you'll recognize a fair number of members. I think with both storms, some snow is guaranteed. This threat seems to take an ESE track off the coast, best bet for snow is NW of the coastal if the inverted trof can be strong enough. The subsequent threat has the higher ceiling, but there's a lot more uncertainty with regards to shortwave strength and degree of interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 There she is... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted March 10, 2023 Social Media Crew Share Posted March 10, 2023 Looking solid so far.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiveWire_13 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 57 minutes ago, Penn State said: Looking solid so far.. Where is the transition from primary low to coastal low projected to happen? Enjoy comparing models with active radar and finding where the differences lie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted March 10, 2023 Social Media Crew Share Posted March 10, 2023 5 hours ago, LiveWire_13 said: Where is the transition from primary low to coastal low projected to happen? Enjoy comparing models with active radar and finding where the differences lie. For this one.. I was thinking somewhere off the Jersey coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 (edited) Rain becoming the favored ptype on SREFs on most recent run .. quickly stepping away from moderate accumulation potential. Radar upstream doesn't inspire confidence, for me at least. But, as of 4:30am, CTP says shut your mouth Clapper. Edited March 10, 2023 by JDClapper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Still ragged looking. Need that to fill in, or we ate looking at a low end bust, at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 14 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Still ragged looking. Need that to fill in, or we ate looking at a low end bust, at best. @JDClapper not a radar that inspires confidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Tom Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Light snow falling in Mifflin County 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted March 10, 2023 Social Media Crew Share Posted March 10, 2023 19 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Still ragged looking. Need that to fill in, or we ate looking at a low end bust, at best. That’s been my experience so far down south.. we had some flurries, but nothing substantial, and there’s not much filling in behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said: @JDClapper not a radar that inspires confidence Lol right Its no secret Im blah on this one. Need some more positive counterpints or this thread is gonna be depressing for outside readers. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rush Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 We just had about 20 minutes of heavy snow. No accumulation. Best snow of the winter!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 35 degrees 27dp Seeing reports of snow in Satate College and to our south. Crawling, thinking 1030 arrival in town. Radar is .. better. But still unimpressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 First flakes arrived in the port. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Steady snow started at 10:30. Trying to lay on grass. Nothing on pavement this soon. 35 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Off and on steady, this wont get it done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 CTP still optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Saw a few flakes flying around just now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiveWire_13 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 I'm looking at the models but I can't tell - are either system pulling in more cold air? Would having one storm end up stronger or weaker generate more cold for frozen precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 10, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted March 10, 2023 6 minutes ago, LiveWire_13 said: I'm looking at the models but I can't tell - are either system pulling in more cold air? Would having one storm end up stronger or weaker generate more cold for frozen precip? In both cases, the simplest "solution" is a stronger storm. Better precip rates are necessary to overcome the warmth near the surface. Upper levels look fine, but you can see it gets warmer as you go down in altitude. Also, this storm does little too provide cold air for the next storm, no matter the strength, because it'll be drawing air off the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiveWire_13 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 12 minutes ago, MaineJay said: In both cases, the simplest "solution" is a stronger storm. Better precip rates are necessary to overcome the warmth near the surface. Upper levels look fine, but you can see it gets warmer as you go down in altitude. Also, this storm does little too provide cold air for the next storm, no matter the strength, because it'll be drawing air off the ocean. I read Clappers obs about it looking ragged. Wasn't sure how the primary being weaker than forecast would affect the coastal/temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodozer1 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 maybe a inch in my area tonight bla. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Nice mod/hvy period of snow came through, about 1/4 - 1/2" .. roads fine. 33 degrees 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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