Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 7, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 7, 2023 Figured I would use ensembles instead of OP as OP is still rather shaky with progression (just bounces around wayyy too much even at 5 days out). Slightly earlier time frame than what i posted above (6 hours I believe). We see the GFS correcting on the weakening of the ridge/blocking too early (fairly typical of models) can also see the vort around the southern Hudson Bay becoming more prominent. The 50/50 also is not as eager to leave and slightly higher heights in the upper midwest. It is not enough to make ground breaking moves but helps further solidify the potential of a really decent storm from about C NJ to about Boston. Precip looks to come over much of PA in a similar fashion as this storm (7th) and then as the energy all but captures the forming coastal the firehose goes off in SNE. GEPS following a similar progression as GEFS with 50/50 not moving out as quickly a better looking ridge/block. Deeper vort coming into the mid Atlantic the only thing missing on the GEPS is the energy around the southern Hudson Bay. Op had it getting entrained in flow and helping aid in quicker coastal development, although unfortunately out to see. Ensembles seemingly squash the energy over the Bay leaving virtually nothing. Not sure this is the right approach from the GEPS but still gets the job done like the GFS albeit a little further south. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 7, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted March 7, 2023 5 day GFS trend. Funny how the models can go back to an old idea. LI jackpot perhaps, would be nice. @Uscg Ast @LongIslanGurlllll @clm 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, MaineJay said: 5 day GFS trend. Funny how the models can go back to an old idea. LI jackpot perhaps, would be nice. @Uscg Ast @LongIslanGurlllll @clm Edited because I am not awake yet. Possible snow for LI but hard to tell yet. As for last night's storm, dry as a bone where I am. As I drove to work on the LIE, further west I went started seeing some snow on the grass. More than a dusting but less than a full coating. Edited March 7, 2023 by clm Not awake yet, thought I was posting in the other thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted March 7, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 7, 2023 NAM lending its support to the GFS idea of a more vigorous vort. RGEM seems to be middle road right now between CMC/Euro camp and GFS/NAM camp. See what the mid-day model suite brings.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 7, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 7, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, MaineJay said: Funny how the models can go back to an old idea. When they spout out different ideas every run it becomes possible. And people wonder why weather forecasting is difficult. Edited March 7, 2023 by StretchCT 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 7, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 7, 2023 Upton is all in on rain for the entire forecast area with just a mention of a mix. Another piece of PAC energy sets its eyes on the area late in the week into the weekend. The operational global models are in very good agreement in taking this energy and closing off an upper low in the vicinity of the the Northern Plains and/or Upper Midwest Thursday night into Friday, then diving the system ESE and off the Mid Atlantic coast Saturday. This will allow for a secondary low to form along the coast as the upper forcing approaches. Greatest uncertainty lies where the secondary forms. GEFs is the northernmost of the ensemble means and has good clustering just south of Long Island, however, the EPS and GEPs means are much farther south and also support their operations runs. NBM wind field, which was closely followed, reflects a track south of the forecast area. Like so many southern branch systems this year, the track and lack of available cold air, has resulted more often in liquid than frozen precipitation events. This event is no different. In addition, unlike the last 2 systems, there is no block across eastern Canada with cold air source bleeding cold air south across New England. Thus, this looks to be a mainly rain event with a rain/snow mix possible on the backside Saturday night. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted March 7, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 7, 2023 12z NAM sticking to the American message with a stronger initial vort... It's coming ashore in the next 24 hours, so maybe a little more consensus by tomorrow's 12z run.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 7, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 7, 2023 Mt Holly on board with mostly rain with a mix north of I78. Also cites same lack of cold air. Guidance continues to come into better agreement with forecast for the weekend. The overall pattern suggests that a mid level low will progress from around Lake Erie on Friday evening to the waters off southern New Jersey and Delaware on Saturday afternoon. Meanwhile, an initial surface low is expected to weaken in western Pennsylvania on Friday night with a secondary low developing off the Middle Atlantic Coast. The secondary low is anticipated to deepen rapidly as it moves farther out to sea on Saturday and Saturday night. The system is forecast to bring our next precipitation event from Friday night into Saturday. The pattern is expected to keep any significant cold air from building into our region. As a result, the precipitation type should be mainly rain, with the potential for a wintry mix from the Interstate 78 Corridor northward. BGM at least mentions the chance of snow for its area. 330 AM Forecast... Winter storm at the end of the week is looking less and less impressive with each model run. The GFS still brings widespread accumulating snowfall to the region, as it remains the farthest north track and still develops a strong coastal low off the New Jersey Coast. However, the Euro and many of its ensembles have the low much further south and by the time any phasing occurs the low is well outside the 70/40 benchmark and continues to head east out into the Atlantic. Euro ensemble mean has about an inch of snow for a decent size portion of the region and this seems quite reasonable at this time. Also, given the track record of the GFS the last several storms this winter, it is hard to hedge any bets on its solution at this time. For now, due to the wide range of uncertainty, have continued to stick with the NBM through the long term period. This keeps PoPs in the low likely category Friday into Saturday. Also, due to the differences of the track of the low in the models, the NBM has more of a wintry mix as the main p-type with this system, but depending on the exact track, an all snow solution is still possible. The storm exits the region on Saturday and high pressure takes over for the remainder of the weekend and into next week. However, the break in the weather appears short-lived as the pattern remains active with another system entering our area Monday into Tuesday. Still way too early to tell whether or not this next system will have any impact to our region, but latest ensembles and some of the deterministic guidance does show some potential is there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 GFS trying to cram winter in for the mid atlantic into the month of March lol 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodozer1 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 time to move on to spring get the muddy season over we have had it all winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted March 7, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 7, 2023 12z CMC and GFS seem pretty similar up until the transfer point and then diverge with CMC transferring all energy to the coastal as it pulls away while GFS keeps lift with the center of the ULL (last check Euro agreed with CMC fwiw). While it does benefit me, I actually think GFS seems like the more realistic scenario as the bowling ball does have some depth to it. I would be surprised if coastal can sap all it's lift in a matter of a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 3 hours ago, MDBlueridge said: GFS trying to cram winter in for the mid atlantic into the month of March lol March is the new February. Went skiing this mornin on the 6" of fluffy power we got last night and it was awesome! The entire park looked white for a change, as opposed to brown with only the trails having ice. Very windy and cold, definitely didn't feel springlike today. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 7, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted March 7, 2023 GEFS. I'm sticking with a long island special. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodozer1 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 GFS says snow temps say rain who will win out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 So far looks like Long Island will get a dusting to maaaaaaaaaybe an inch or two if we're lucky depending on which way this goes. Icon and GFS are at odds. Euro showing more sleet. Not sure why Euro on tropical tidbits does not show snow and pivotal weather does, but oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Looking like another 1-3 for majority of area... this will be like the 3rd one this season. Think I am at about 7 or so inches for the year... In Southern Morris County - quite low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 8, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 8, 2023 NAM looked like a solid snow for north of NYC and west out around I-80, but the qpf just isn't that much. 0.2" over a 6 hour period isn't all that heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted March 8, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 8, 2023 4 hours ago, JDClapper said: since it's coming in the overnight, feel like that is a bit conservative for your area. Feel like it will be a 2-4" event for you.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted March 8, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 8, 2023 RGEM coming in blazing with between 0.5-1" qpf for a good swath of PA. Kuchera showing less that 10:1 ratios though so would be some mash potatoes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 hour ago, telejunkie said: since it's coming in the overnight, feel like that is a bit conservative for your area. Feel like it will be a 2-4" event for you.... Yeah, 1" definitely seems low end.. unless trust in snow depth change map is higher than snowfall. In that case, 1-2" seems to be the theme. The light rates and marginal temps could keep this less impressive too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 4 hours ago, JDClapper said: Yeah, 1" definitely seems low end.. unless trust in snow depth change map is higher than snowfall. In that case, 1-2" seems to be the theme. The light rates and marginal temps could keep this less impressive too. 18z NAM much more impressive in the interior/valleys 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 8, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 8, 2023 What looked like a storm being captured just east of nj and south of LI and dumping a good bit around SNE is now being captured further se. How far that primary goes is key. Toward erie and we are warmer here in southern and southeastern PA, keep it out toward ohio and maybe we stand a chance at some accumulation. Models have been rather iffy with qpf leading into the storms this year. Some over producing qpf have fallen short and those with less qpf have been morr moist quite a few times. Looks like 1-3" is a good call for most of PA and southern /western NY. Some areas could push 3-5" mostly interior and elevation. Who knows may be our biggest snow of the year havent had a 1 inch storm yet... see what happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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