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March 10-11, 2023 | NE/Mid-Atl Winter Storm


MaineJay

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5 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

Not a great start at 12z. Don't shoot the messenger.

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_fh138-192.gif

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_fh180-234.gif

GEM looks like all the storms since mid January.

Slow the GFS down and wind it up far enough west and we might get something.

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Ensembles not showing much height rise out in front thanks to downstream forcing...but showing more rise than like a day or two ago. Think the GFS is currently out to lunch with its depiction...Euro and CMC make more sense to me as warm air advection will only make so much progress as the occluded primary moves more west to east and forces a coastal runner to develop. 

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5 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

1 more suite before I whip out my Winter 2023 catch phrase.

Ugg...was looking at overnight ensembles...12z ensembles were definitely not as good. 😒

Can see the earlier negative tilt and more height rise along the EC

trend-epsens-2023030412-f156.500h_anom-mean.conus.gif

Edited by telejunkie
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Operational models at hour 144.

GFS is the most out of sync, but a blend of the 4 would probably produce a widespread storm.  Though there's no way to prove me right or wrong on that statement.

 

500hv.conus (4) (13).png

500hv.conus (4) (16).png

500hv.conus (4) (15).png

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