Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 9, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 9, 2023 Always fun to see algorithms struggle a bit. Solidly in the -2C region at 850mb, 700mb even colder, ok frontogenesis. Would most likely be snow falling to about the PA border. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted March 9, 2023 Social Media Crew Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, so_whats_happening said: Always fun to see algorithms struggle a bit. Solidly in the -2C region at 850mb, 700mb even colder, ok frontogenesis. Would most likely be snow falling to about the PA border. I’ve been enjoying the trends with this.. thinking this could be an over performer for us in SCPA. Might even lead to an early dismissal on Friday.. which I’m totally alright with! It’s definitely been a full moon type of week lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 (edited) 38 minutes ago, Penn State said: I’ve been enjoying the trends with this.. thinking this could be an over performer for us in SCPA. Might even lead to an early dismissal on Friday.. which I’m totally alright with! It’s definitely been a full moon type of week lol Did you see the super moon outside this evening? Beautiful with cheat skies, at least here in my hill of the Poconos correction: not a supermoon, but looked pretty big rising over the horizon. Edited March 9, 2023 by TheComet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted March 9, 2023 Social Media Crew Share Posted March 9, 2023 58 minutes ago, TheComet said: Did you see the super moon outside this evening? Beautiful with cheat skies, at least here in my hill of the Poconos correction: not a supermoon, but looked pretty big rising over the horizon. I did! We were making a donut run last night with the family and my daughter couldn’t stop talking about it 😂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted March 9, 2023 Social Media Crew Share Posted March 9, 2023 NAM looks healthy.. for much of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 (edited) 14 minutes ago, Penn State said: NAM looks healthy.. for much of PA. 36 more hours. Can it keep improving for the Commonwealth, or do we see some type of reversal to lower qpf, or tracks farther north/south? Edited March 9, 2023 by JDClapper 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 9, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 9, 2023 42 minutes ago, JDClapper said: 36 more hours. Can it keep improving for the Commonwealth, or do we see some type of reversal to lower qpf, or tracks farther north/south? I can't see much more northerly movement. We may have to wait and see how juiced the system is to get a better handle on QPF but overall looks nice. Lol at the donut right over my head in Lancaster. Wouldn't be the first time. Ill wait and check skew t's tomorrow evening to get a better idea of just how cool it is with how much dry air exists. Maybe a white rain situation closer to the PA border? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted March 9, 2023 Social Media Crew Share Posted March 9, 2023 It’s definitely going to be elevation dependent.. one of those micro forecasts, like it has been all winter for some of the valleys in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 9, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 9, 2023 (edited) 14 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: What looked like a storm being captured just east of nj and south of LI and dumping a good bit around SNE is now being captured further se. How far that primary goes is key. Toward erie and we are warmer here in southern and southeastern PA, keep it out toward ohio and maybe we stand a chance at some accumulation. Models have been rather iffy with qpf leading into the storms this year. Some over producing qpf have fallen short and those with less qpf have been morr moist quite a few times. Looks like 1-3" is a good call for most of PA and southern /western NY. Some areas could push 3-5" mostly interior and elevation. Who knows may be our biggest snow of the year havent had a 1 inch storm yet... see what happens. The fronto along the incoming precip is getting less and less as we move closer. May fail to cool the column lower 2000' and have us a white rain situation without better fronto. Coating to 1" most of pa at this rate. Areas that got hit last time look to get it again. Areas of elevstion could still do a 2-4 or 3-5 scenario but it would have to be closer to the poconos. On this note it is now almost a guarantee this will go down in records for the least snowy year. Edited March 9, 2023 by so_whats_happening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Daytime onset back this way with marginal temps... snowFALL showing a nice 4-6".. but with light rates and temps hovering a little over freezing .. 1-3" seems most plausible. Seems to be drifting north on last several runs of 3k NAM. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted March 9, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 9, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, JDClapper said: Daytime onset back this way with marginal temps... snowFALL showing a nice 4-6".. but with light rates and temps hovering a little over freezing .. 1-3" seems most plausible. Seems to be drifting north on last several runs of 3k NAM. Still thinking you'll do better than 1-3"...it's going to come down a decent clip for you...thinking you'll be seeing some 1/2"–1" rates at its peak...not for too long, but this has some decent dynamics. It's definitely drifting north...I haven't been in the game for many days...now models are bringing some light accums up my way too Edit: Just reading some other posts with folks more knowledgeable than me....especially for your area. Maybe you're right Clapper...surface and air temps to be an issue at lower elevations. Edited March 9, 2023 by telejunkie 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 I think elevation (1500' and above) will def help it stick better. For the top of my hill at 1900' I think 6" is a decent bet, at least right now. This would be a nice streak of snowy events for my area after mostly rain this winter. In spite of this winter, sitting at 30" (and more coming tomorrow and then Monday) which is not bad at all compared to other snow starved areas, again elevation has helped. I feel a little guilty and I def do not have any right to complain 🙂 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryptoWeather Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Does anyone know why surface temps are warm meanwhile the 850's are so cold? It's been like that all year for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 16 hours ago, TheComet said: Did you see the super moon outside this evening? Beautiful with cheat skies, at least here in my hill of the Poconos correction: not a supermoon, but looked pretty big rising over the horizon. Yep, optical illusion. Moon stays the same size but to our eyes it gets smaller as it gets higher in the sky. Or the government is using a shrinking ray on it every night. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, CryptoWeather said: Does anyone know why surface temps are warm meanwhile the 850's are so cold? It's been like that all year for the coast. Winds sending in warmer marine air? SST still warm out there. Edited March 9, 2023 by TLChip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 CTP feeling what you're feeling TeleJ. I just feel in my gut, 3" is high end in the valley.. which I guess technically, would make both CTP and myslef correct if that is the result, just got there differently Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiveWire_13 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Hey, all. Feel a little weird posting here and not the other site, but I'll leave that for now. Nice to see so many familiar AW faces. I watched Steven DiMartino's stream last night and he seemed sold on this winter's progressive trend keeping both storms from much beyond a little white rain and getting driven OTS. I'm curious to hear what y'all's thoughts are. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, LiveWire_13 said: Hey, all. Feel a little weird posting here and not the other site, but I'll leave that for now. Nice to see so many familiar AW faces. I watched Steven DiMartino's stream last night and he seemed sold on this winter's progressive trend keeping both storms from much beyond a little white rain and getting driven OTS. I'm curious to hear what y'all's thoughts are. Welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wally Ho Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 6 minutes ago, LiveWire_13 said: Hey, all. Feel a little weird posting here and not the other site, but I'll leave that for now. Nice to see so many familiar AW faces. I watched Steven DiMartino's stream last night and he seemed sold on this winter's progressive trend keeping both storms from much beyond a little white rain and getting driven OTS. I'm curious to hear what y'all's thoughts are. Word on the street is that the other site has breathed its last. But welcome, good to have you man. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 9 minutes ago, Wally Ho said: Word on the street is that the other site has breathed its last. But welcome, good to have you man. Is the other site dead? I can't even get it to load lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiveWire_13 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, mikeysed said: Is the other site dead? I can't even get it to load lol Happened abruptly ~24 hours ago w/o warning. Realized I feel isolated w/o a wx community and finally Googled my way onto here. Timing is annoying given the two systems and pattern change happening in less than a week, especially with one storm starting tomorrow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 6 minutes ago, LiveWire_13 said: Happened abruptly ~24 hours ago w/o warning. Realized I feel isolated w/o a wx community and finally Googled my way onto here. Timing is annoying given the two systems and pattern change happening in less than a week, especially with one storm starting tomorrow. Welcome! We have some discussion but it’s been rather tame, rough year in the mid Atlantic, would have been nice to see these looks back in Jan/Feb but beggars can’t be choosers. Tracking fatigue with so many cutters 🤣 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RPHSnamwolp Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Anyone else see the WWA issued for 3-6” in NE Jersey, SENY, and CT? I thought this threat has been trending away from being substantial? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hobie Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 12 minutes ago, RPHSnamwolp said: Anyone else see the WWA issued for 3-6” in NE Jersey, SENY, and CT? I thought this threat has been trending away from being substantial? Yup. Got it here for Fairfield and Litchfield counties starting tomorrow evening at 6. I didn't think we were going to see much out of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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