ElectricStorm Posted March 2, 2023 Author Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 hour ago, Iceresistance said: Remember the DVD Sized hail? It was being talked about in the Ryan Hall Y'all livestream last night. That was legendary. Even better considering it was a total cap bust 😂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 2, 2023 Author Share Posted March 2, 2023 SPC dropped the 15% tornado area, which makes sense considering how quick this will probably go linear after the initial hail threat. Strong tornadoes still possible, just likely less of them than initially feared. That being said, serious hail risk for DFW, and wind threat further east, hopefully everyone is prepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Tomorrow is looking more and more interesting by the model run in TN/KY. A lot of the models are showing a linear storm mode with big winds, but LR HRRR picking up on some discrete activity ahead of the front on the last several runs. FV3 shows it as well but it's pretty low resolution comparatively so hard to judge. Definitely will be keeping an eye what the models do as it gets a bit closer. 12Z HRRR C. KY N. TN New Day 2 Quote SPC AC 021734 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Thu Mar 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible on Friday across parts of the Southeast into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the AR/OK border into LA early Friday morning. This wave is expected to eject quickly northeastward throughout the day, reaching the lower OH Valley by Friday afternoon and the Upper Great Lakes by Saturday morning. Very strong mid to upper flow will accompany this system, with over 100 kt at 500-mb throughout its southern periphery. Strong mass response will also foster a strong and broad low-level jet, with a large area of 60+ kt at 850mb preceding the wave from the Southeast across the TN Valley into the Mid/Upper OH Valley. A deepening surface low will move just ahead of this shortwave, as an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the Southeast States and TN Valley. A broad warm sector characterized by 60s dewpoints will initially be in place ahead of this low and associated front. Severe thunderstorms are anticipated along this front as it moves eastward, with the highest severe potential anticipated from middle TN into central KY during the afternoon. ...OH and TN Valleys... The surface low will likely be centered near southeast MO/northeast AR early Friday morning, before then moving quickly northeastward through the Lower OH Valley while occluding. This will lead to a narrowing of the warm sector with eastern extent. Even so, at least low 60s dewpoints are anticipated ahead of the low and attendant cold front from western TN/KY through middle TN and central KY. Heating ahead of the line will be modest, but some limited buoyancy is still expected to develop, particularly during the afternoon across middle TN and central KY. Strong forcing for ascent is expected, with vigorous large-scale ascent augmented by ascent along the front and surface low. This buoyancy and ascent will be colocated with robust wind fields. These environmental conditions are expected to support thunderstorms capable of strong gusts, and potentially a few tornadoes. A linear mode looks most probable, although some guidance has begun to indicate the potential for a few discrete storms ahead of the line. As of now, the discrete scenario has not been given too much weight, due to limited surface-based potential ahead of the line. That being said, any discrete storms that mature would likely be supercellular. ...Southeast... Instability will be limited by warm temperatures aloft, with the main forcing for ascent displaced northwest of the region. Even so, robust wind fields and moderate low-level moisture are expected to support severe thunderstorms along a cold front moving quickly eastward across the region. Primary threat is damaging wind gusts, although a tornado or two is also possible. ..Mosier.. 03/02/2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Glad they dropped the 15% tornado. Early day stability is an issue and doesn’t seem like there’s much reason to expect warm sector/discrete activity right now. That said, the early day stability in NE TX appears to be moving out with an effective warm front pushing it out You posted it in the wrong forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 14 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Another note here… gotta watch this “warm front” for enhanced tornado potential later if a cell can take advantage of it. Definitely have some backed surface winds in its vicinity. Another post in the wrong forum... Not trying to be rude or anything though, I will stop if you want me to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 2, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 2, 2023 (edited) I appreciate it Iceresistance. Need to get in the habit of checking the thread when I post on my phone. Edited March 2, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 2, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 2, 2023 (edited) Squall is about to ingest a boundary. Can already see some potential tornado areas of concern Edited March 2, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Not sure I was expecting such high tornado probabilities, but talk about an all hazards day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted March 2, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 2, 2023 (edited) Looks like 2-3" of rain here tonight and tomorrow! Hopefully we can get some thunderstorms out of it this far north Edited March 2, 2023 by Central Illinois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 2, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 2, 2023 34 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Squall is about to ingest a boundary. Can already see some potential tornado areas of concern Pretty well defined boundary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 18z HRRR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 2, 2023 Author Share Posted March 2, 2023 Big time hail core on that Sherman cell, currently warned for 2in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Tornado Warning for Durant, OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Tornado on the ground in Eastern Texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Ryan is live, as usual 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Accidentally set my last post to hidden, just watched a tornado form on livestream with the confirmed warning in texas. Any one of these bubblers are clearly conducive to produce as they mature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Models definitely didn't pick up on this much discrete warm-sector convection, which is why the 15% hatched was removed earlier today, yet here we are with from my count at least 6 maturing supercells. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Just now, Neoncyclone said: Models definitely didn't pick up on this much discrete warm-sector convection, which is why the 15% hatched was removed earlier today, yet here we are with from my count at least 6 maturing supercells. They're going to reinstate that, this took them by surprise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 2, 2023 Author Share Posted March 2, 2023 2 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: They're going to reinstate that, this took them by surprise. Probably not since next outlook isn't until 7, unless they put out a special one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: They're going to reinstate that, this took them by surprise. I doubt they re-upgrade unless it becomes apparent that every supercell is maturing well and taking full advantage of the environment, not saying they won't, but we'd have to see each of these cells really mature and have multiple start producing to see that happen. Regardless, dangerous evening ahead for arklatex!! Edited March 2, 2023 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 (edited) Tornado live on stream right now! Crazy motion on this thing! This storm that's currently producing this tornado is completely unwarned. Edited March 2, 2023 by Neoncyclone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Just now, Neoncyclone said: Tornado live on stream right now! Crazy motion on this thing! That thing looks nasty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Mainiac Posted March 2, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 2, 2023 Just now, Neoncyclone said: Tornado live on stream right now! Crazy motion on this thing! Yeah, watching it now. Amazing capture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Just a quick screen grab, but anyone who hasn't should definitely check out the stream 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 3 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: Just a quick screen grab, but anyone who hasn't should definitely check out the stream It has lifted, but it's going back down again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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