Neoncyclone Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 It's gonna be nasty if the supercell in AR manages to produce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Huntsville, AL is under a tornado warning P.S. Dont mind the little x drawing under it, accident 🤣 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Hackleburg is now under a tornado warning as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 2, 2023 Author Share Posted March 2, 2023 (edited) Kinda hard to tell but that might be a CC drop on the Hackleburg cell EDIT: yeah new scan clearly has a debris ball Edited March 2, 2023 by ElectricStorm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Small CC drop associated with the tornado warning including Hackleburg, AL. Confirmed warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 (edited) Big hailer with a severe thunderstorm - destructive warning on it. EDIT: PDS Severe thunderstorm warning on this storm now, don't see that everyday!! Warned for baseball sized hail! Edited March 2, 2023 by Neoncyclone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 (edited) That might be the thickest three-body scatter spike from hail i've seen. Edited March 2, 2023 by Neoncyclone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 2, 2023 Author Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 minute ago, Neoncyclone said: That might be the thickest three-body scatter spike from hail i've seen. Geez that is wild, I hope that's over an open field... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 2, 2023 Author Share Posted March 2, 2023 Texas cell now warned for softballs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 9 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said: Geez that is wild, I hope that's over an open field... Sure hope so, that thing is no joke, cloud tops up to 60kft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 2, 2023 Author Share Posted March 2, 2023 SPC put up a MD for it Quote Mesoscale Discussion 0222 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 PM CST Wed Mar 01 2023 Areas affected...South Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 020421Z - 020615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms -- capable of producing very large hail -- will be possible over the next few hours across parts of South Texas. The very isolated nature of the expected convection may preclude the need for WW issuance. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows that a large/lone supercell has developed over Zavala County in South Texas, and is moving into southwestern Frio County at this time. The storm is occurring within a moderately unstable environment, where weak low-level flow but strong southwesterlies aloft are providing sufficient shear for this storm to acquire updraft rotation. Latest MRMS MESH continues to show very large hail with this storm, as it moves eastward. Though any more than very isolated/additional development appears unlikely, any storm across this area will be capable of producing very large/destructive hail, and possibly locally damaging wind gusts. ..Goss/Guyer.. 03/02/2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Storm in N AL just got a radar indicated warning, might be a very small CC drop there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Enhanced echo-tops are still suggesting this storm in Texas has an overshooting top near 55-60kft high. Thats about as high up as you'll ever see cloud tops go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 2, 2023 Author Share Posted March 2, 2023 That core passed right over Derby, hopefully the damage isn't too bad there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 hail storm southwest of San Antonio, radar estimated hail was 4" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 location of tornado debris about 11:00 eastern (Hodges AL) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 2, 2023 Author Share Posted March 2, 2023 (edited) New day one is out, pretty strong wording Quote Given the high magnitudes of shear, at least a few sustained, strong tornadoes are likely and an intense (EF3+) tornado or two cannot be ruled out. One caveat which precludes the issuance of higher tornado-driven probabilities this outlook is the advection of warm 700 mb temperatures into the low-level jet axis during the evening, which may temper low-level updraft stretching and in turn, dampen tornado potential with a subset of storms that do occur. Edited March 2, 2023 by ElectricStorm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 2, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 2, 2023 Surprised to see a mention of tornado-driven high risk... unless they're talking about the potential for extending the moderate risk further east. As is usually the case... warm sector storms have the higher-end tornado potential but are very hard to predict. Gotta have confidence in that in order to get a high risk in this case imo. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1200 AM CST THU MAR 02 2023 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX... ..SUMMARY A REGIONAL SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX AND ARKLAMISS REGIONS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES ARE ALL EXPECTED. A FEW LONG-LIVED, INTENSE TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. ..SYNOPSIS A POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND APPROACH THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT WHILE A SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE ARKLATEX. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH AN INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND A SECOND ROUND MOVING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW, AN INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL JET BENEATH UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PROMOTE VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT/SHEAR ATOP RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, ENCOURAGING SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IN ASSOCIATION WITH BOTH ROUNDS OF STORMS. A REGIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING TORNADOES. ..CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MID-SOUTH - DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS EASTERN TX INTO SOUTHERN AR, TOWARD NORTHERN AL ALONG A DIFFUSE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT, DELINEATING THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE WARM SECTOR. AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRAVERSES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, RAPID SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD ENSUE ACROSS TX, SUPPORTING THE VIGOROUS NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO EASTERN OK/AR. 7-8 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS, CONTRIBUTING TO 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. DURING THE DAY, A 30+ KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, OVERSPREAD BY 50+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD 50-75 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. APPRECIABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE PRESENT, WITH HODOGRAPHS GRADUALLY ELONGATING/CURVING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH/300 MB JET STREAK STILL LAGGING TO THE WEST, SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN IN TERMS OF HOW WIDESPREAD DIURNAL WARM-SECTOR COVERAGE WILL BE. NONETHELESS, THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF A MERGING DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT WILL ENCOURAGE AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, WITH SUPERCELLS INITIATING ACROSS CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHEAST OK, PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE ARKLATEX. SEVERE GUSTS, LARGE HAIL (INCLUDING 2+ INCH STONES) AND TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE. ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN BECOME SUSTAINED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR MAY PRODUCE STRONG TORNADOES. ..ARKLATEX INTO THE MID-SOUTH - NIGHTIME BY EVENING, THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND WILL ACCELERATE TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY, WITH THE SURFACE LOW ALSO EXPECTED TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION. IMPRESSIVE VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL DEVELOP AS A RESULT OF THE DEEP-LAYER MASS RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH, WITH A REGIONAL BUT VOLATILE SEVERE WEATHER SETUP TAKING PLACE. AS THE PACIFIC FRONT RAPIDLY ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO A BUOYANT AIRMASS (500-1500 J/KG MLCAPE, DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS), SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT. AN INTENSE QLCS MAY DEVELOP, COMPRISED OF A MIX OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND POTENTIALLY LONG-LIVED MESO-GAMMA SCALE VORTICES. A 50-60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET OVERSPREAD BY 100+ KTS OF 500 MB FLOW WILL SUPPORT VERY LARGE/CURVED HODOGRAPHS AMID RESIDUAL SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD SEVERE GUSTS, SEVERAL QLCS/POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SUPERCELL TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY WITH THIS MAIN ROUND OF STORMS. GIVEN THE HIGH MAGNITUDES OF SHEAR, AT LEAST A FEW SUSTAINED, STRONG TORNADOES ARE LIKELY AND AN INTENSE (EF3+) TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ONE CAVEAT WHICH PRECLUDES THE ISSUANCE OF HIGHER TORNADO-DRIVEN PROBABILITIES THIS OUTLOOK IS THE ADVECTION OF WARM 700 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS DURING THE EVENING, WHICH MAY TEMPER LOW-LEVEL UPDRAFT STRETCHING AND IN TURN, DAMPEN TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH A SUBSET OF STORMS THAT DO OCCUR. THE QLCS MAY UNDERGO GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER CROSSING THE MS RIVER AROUND 09Z. NONETHELESS, IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES AND AT LEAST SOME SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY (ALBEIT SCANT) SHOULD PRECEDE THE LINE, WITH AT LEAST SOME RISK OF DAMAGING GUSTS/LINE-EMBEDDED TORNADOES CONTINUING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Kinda interesting from ILN. Quote .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Multiple impacts are expected from a very strong storm system Friday/Friday night. Threats for heavy rain/flooding, strong synoptic winds and severe weather all exist. Looking at the details...a negatively tilted mid level shortwave to eject from the Lower MS Valley thru the Ohio Valley Friday and into the Great Lakes Friday night as 100-110 KT jet rotates around the base of this trof. Very deep surface low to track thru northwest Ohio late Friday afternoon and Friday evening. In response to a 60-65KT low level jet ahead of this system -- widespread rain showers to overspread the area late tonight into Friday morning. This widespread warm advection precipitation shifts north thru the FA Friday. Some of the hi resolution model solutions are showing a thin ribbon of surface based instability advecting into northern KY/Southern Ohio, Friday afternoon ahead of cold front. Given the intense wind fields, if even marginal instability develops, damaging winds will be possible -- with also the potential for a few tornadoes. Some of the CAM solutions show favorable updraft helicity with supercell storms Friday afternoon. The pressure gradient tightens with strong winds outside of storms and the potential for wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph Friday afternoon into Friday evening. A signal for heavy rain also exists with PW values of 1.2 to 1.4 inches which is 250-300 percent of normal. HREF mean QPF showing values of 2 to 3 inches -- with the highest totals over the west and southwest. Have issued a Flood watch from late tonight through late Friday night for all but the far southeast. Will continue to highlight the severe and wind potential in the HWO product. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 4 inch hail was reported north of San Antonio, TX last night! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 minute ago, Iceresistance said: 4 inch hail was reported north of San Antonio, TX last night! Wowzers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 racquetball sized hail? Never heard of that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 12 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: racquetball sized hail? Never heard of that one. I'm waiting for Bocce sized hail!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 minute ago, FortySixAnd32 said: I'm waiting for Bocce sized hail!!! Remember the DVD Sized hail? It was being talked about in the Ryan Hall Y'all livestream last night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.jpg.d854dd115fa9dfd0656f7d1835c449ce.jpg)
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now