DJKuo Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 13 minutes ago, Grace said: Tomorrow has me intrigued. It's sneaky. These little sneaky events seem to either bust or over-produce...no in between. What are you guys thinking about tomorrow over West Ky? Regional basketball tournaments are going on & the event is close to the time those events begin. Plus a lot of Wed evening church activities. Tomorrow morning will be a KY statewide tornado drill. Will be interesting to see the updated SPC map for tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 1, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 1, 2023 (edited) 51 minutes ago, Grace said: Tomorrow has me intrigued. It's sneaky. These little sneaky events seem to either bust or over-produce...no in between. What are you guys thinking about tomorrow over West Ky? Regional basketball tournaments are going on & the event is close to the time those events begin. Plus a lot of Wed evening church activities. SPC doesn't have a marginal for the area right now, and PAH isn't impressed either. They've spent much more time looking at this than I have. Really just depends how far north the warm front goes. SPC and PAH don't think it'll go that far north. HRRR/NAM have a further north solution into western KY... has moderate low-level shear, moderate cape, but strong forcing. Storm motion is also mostly parallel with the front. Initial supercells with a tornado threat but should go linear pretty quick. HRRR/NAM have 2000+ cape up to Kentucky. The first day of March? I have questions about that. It's happened but it's rare for a reason. An area of surface low pressure is located across northeast Wyoming and will move east into the western Great Lakes on Wednesday. A cold front will extend southwestward from it, and is expected to make passage across our cwa during the afternoon and evening. Soundings indicate the column quickly saturates in the low-mid levels Wednesday afternoon and evening. Best forcing looks to remain well north attached to the primary mid-level wave moving across the Great Lakes. A secondary area of enhanced lift will be present south of our region associated with some weak energy shuttling through the southwest flow aloft ahead of the main upper low across the southwest U.S. Temperatures will be well above normal on Wednesday with highs reaching the 70s. Low level moisture increases through the day, with dewpoints rising through the 50s, and likely into the low 60s across parts of southeast MO and west KY by late afternoon/early evening. Soundings indicate a good amount of elevated instability, on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg, developing by 21z. Models even suggest some SBCAPE as well, but given the inversion present on soundings through 00z, it seems unlikely we get anything rooted to the surface. Certainly a good chance at some rumbles of thunder and can`t completely rule out a strong storm as the front makes passage. Mid level lapse rates are rather impressive around 21z but quickly wane after 00z, same goes for the instability. Wind fields are decent but nothing to write home about, and the strongest low-mid level winds remain south of our region. SPC continues to highlight the lower Mississippi Valley region for severe weather in their Day 2 outlook, with the marginal coming right up to the KY/TN border. Wouldn`t be totally surprised to see the marginal inch a bit northward tomorrow, but overall the parameter space certainly looks more favorable south of us. Edited March 1, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 30 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: SPC doesn't have a marginal for the area right now, and PAH isn't impressed either. They've spent much more time looking at this than I have. Really just depends how far north the warm front goes. SPC and PAH don't think it'll go that far north. HRRR/NAM have a further north solution into western KY... has moderate low-level shear, moderate cape, but strong forcing. Storm motion is also mostly parallel with the front. Initial supercells with a tornado threat but should go linear pretty quick. HRRR/NAM have 2000+ cape up to Kentucky. The first day of March? I have questions about that. It's happened but it's rare for a reason. An area of surface low pressure is located across northeast Wyoming and will move east into the western Great Lakes on Wednesday. A cold front will extend southwestward from it, and is expected to make passage across our cwa during the afternoon and evening. Soundings indicate the column quickly saturates in the low-mid levels Wednesday afternoon and evening. Best forcing looks to remain well north attached to the primary mid-level wave moving across the Great Lakes. A secondary area of enhanced lift will be present south of our region associated with some weak energy shuttling through the southwest flow aloft ahead of the main upper low across the southwest U.S. Temperatures will be well above normal on Wednesday with highs reaching the 70s. Low level moisture increases through the day, with dewpoints rising through the 50s, and likely into the low 60s across parts of southeast MO and west KY by late afternoon/early evening. Soundings indicate a good amount of elevated instability, on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg, developing by 21z. Models even suggest some SBCAPE as well, but given the inversion present on soundings through 00z, it seems unlikely we get anything rooted to the surface. Certainly a good chance at some rumbles of thunder and can`t completely rule out a strong storm as the front makes passage. Mid level lapse rates are rather impressive around 21z but quickly wane after 00z, same goes for the instability. Wind fields are decent but nothing to write home about, and the strongest low-mid level winds remain south of our region. SPC continues to highlight the lower Mississippi Valley region for severe weather in their Day 2 outlook, with the marginal coming right up to the KY/TN border. Wouldn`t be totally surprised to see the marginal inch a bit northward tomorrow, but overall the parameter space certainly looks more favorable south of us. My take away is that something unusual & not expected will take place if that 2000+ cape verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 30 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: SPC doesn't have a marginal for the area right now, and PAH isn't impressed either. They've spent much more time looking at this than I have. Really just depends how far north the warm front goes. SPC and PAH don't think it'll go that far north. HRRR/NAM have a further north solution into western KY... has moderate low-level shear, moderate cape, but strong forcing. Storm motion is also mostly parallel with the front. Initial supercells with a tornado threat but should go linear pretty quick. HRRR/NAM have 2000+ cape up to Kentucky. The first day of March? I have questions about that. It's happened but it's rare for a reason. An area of surface low pressure is located across northeast Wyoming and will move east into the western Great Lakes on Wednesday. A cold front will extend southwestward from it, and is expected to make passage across our cwa during the afternoon and evening. Soundings indicate the column quickly saturates in the low-mid levels Wednesday afternoon and evening. Best forcing looks to remain well north attached to the primary mid-level wave moving across the Great Lakes. A secondary area of enhanced lift will be present south of our region associated with some weak energy shuttling through the southwest flow aloft ahead of the main upper low across the southwest U.S. Temperatures will be well above normal on Wednesday with highs reaching the 70s. Low level moisture increases through the day, with dewpoints rising through the 50s, and likely into the low 60s across parts of southeast MO and west KY by late afternoon/early evening. Soundings indicate a good amount of elevated instability, on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg, developing by 21z. Models even suggest some SBCAPE as well, but given the inversion present on soundings through 00z, it seems unlikely we get anything rooted to the surface. Certainly a good chance at some rumbles of thunder and can`t completely rule out a strong storm as the front makes passage. Mid level lapse rates are rather impressive around 21z but quickly wane after 00z, same goes for the instability. Wind fields are decent but nothing to write home about, and the strongest low-mid level winds remain south of our region. SPC continues to highlight the lower Mississippi Valley region for severe weather in their Day 2 outlook, with the marginal coming right up to the KY/TN border. Wouldn`t be totally surprised to see the marginal inch a bit northward tomorrow, but overall the parameter space certainly looks more favorable south of us. My take away is that something unusual & not expected will take place if that 2000+ cape verifies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 1, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 1, 2023 5 minutes ago, Grace said: My take away is that something unusual & not expected will take place if that 2000+ cape verifies. Not a slam dunk even if it does verify. Only a small window for supercells if you destabilize that much, then it turns into a squall which is not something unusual. But it seems there's not much confidence that the warm front will go that far north despite a couple solutions showing that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJKuo Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 12 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Not a slam dunk even if it does verify. Only a small window for supercells if you destabilize that much, then it turns into a squall which is not something unusual. But it seems there's not much confidence that the warm front will go that far north despite a couple solutions showing that. Local mets here in KY are quite confident we’ll hit 80F for the high Wednesday here in Louisville, KY. Dry air was a concern regarding storms forming though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Tomorrow (March 1) - now Slight risk 5%/15%/15% centered on Arkansas, 15% hatched for hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted March 1, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 1, 2023 SPC did a day 2 moderate. I'm not surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 1, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 1, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, DJKuo said: Local mets here in KY are quite confident we’ll hit 80F for the high Wednesday here in Louisville, KY. Dry air was a concern regarding storms forming though. Definitely an issue on NAM where the greatest parameters are. Front probably wouldn't have a problem producing though. Tweeted a few hours before day 1 marginal was expanded north into S OH Edited March 1, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 15% hatched for tornadoes, 45% hatched for wind, 30% hatched for hail, pretty high-end event on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Thunderstorm Watch up for DFW right now. Didn't expect that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Enhanced risk basically along I-30 from Texarkana to Little Rock, and along and south I-40 from Little Rock to Jackson, TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenbobby13 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Local weather page posted this for SW Ohio today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 hour ago, greenbobby13 said: Local weather page posted this for SW Ohio today I’m guessing that’s the HRRR. It’s been showing cells developing near here (Dayton). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Tornado watch is up 60/30% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Some cells firing off here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Had a brief shower, most of the stuff is south/southwest of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 1, 2023 Author Share Posted March 1, 2023 Nasty supercell heading into Hot Springs. On track for Little Rock if it holds together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 (edited) 1 minute ago, ElectricStorm said: Nasty supercell heading into Hot Springs. On track for Little Rock if it holds together Tornado-warned now, there are ARDOT Cameras there https://idrivearkansas.com/ Edited March 1, 2023 by Iceresistance Typo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 2 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Tornado-warned now, there are ARDOT Cameras there https://idrivearkansas.com/ Looks like it was elevated just 10-20 minutes ago, it's definitely trying to root and become surface-based though, if it does it becomes a pretty big problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 3 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: Looks like it was elevated just 10-20 minutes ago, it's definitely trying to root and become surface-based though, if it does it becomes a pretty big problem. It's really going for surface based since it's now tornado-warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Oh my lord, that Supercell is looking nasty, and it's getting darker... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Ryan Hall is live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 2, 2023 Author Share Posted March 2, 2023 No longer tornado warned which is a bit... Surprising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Tornado warning dropped, it tried, but I think it's still elevated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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