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March 1-3, 2023 | Severe Weather Outbreak


ElectricStorm

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The tornado-warned storms in S Indiana are right on the very fringe of the warm-front per mesoanalysis, hopefully within the next 30 minutes they won't be much of a threat anymore as they continue to lift north. The storm west of Evansville is looking interesting.

Screenshot2023-03-03124025.thumb.png.6b8020aacd05b1c0a0a13797226b5974.png

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15 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

The storm heading towards Chattanooga had a quick pulse in the velocities but already looks a bit less impressive, lets hope it stays that way

 

KHTX - Super-Res Velocity 1, 12_25 PM.gif

it's more impressive

Quote

At 1241 PM CST, a confirmed tornado was located near Section, or near
Scottsboro, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Law enforcement confirmed tornado.

 

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Proximity to the radar site is making this somewhat hard to spot but definitely think there’s a lot of tornadoes spinning up within the line. Look at this scan just west of Evansville from when it moved through….wow. 
image.thumb.png.d7b8466a23f4e3919d6c80a9da489fbc.png

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Seems as the front on the northern fringe has crossed over into the colder areas. I wonder how this line will be impacted once the front catches it. HRRR seems to show some enhanced convection in the next few hours. 
image.thumb.png.8ca82c24e0b2a9b5a9477e88c4b73549.png

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Well maybe not after the MCD text loaded. Appears the ongoing convection in front of the line is limiting destabilization as many have discussed here today but they are still saying some severe winds may be possible as the low is very strong. Bottom of the discussion says that a watch may still be needed as things progress.

MD 248 graphic

Quote
Mesoscale Discussion 0248
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0140 PM CST Fri Mar 03 2023

   Areas affected...northern Kentucky...far southeast Indiana and
   southwest Ohio

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 62...

   Valid 031940Z - 032245Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 62 continues.

   SUMMARY...A corridor of severe wind or brief tornado potential may
   materialize through 00Z as the low travels northeastward toward
   southwest Ohio.

   DISCUSSION...A small arcing line of storms persists ahead of the
   surface low, extending from southern Indiana toward the Louisville
   KY area. This activity will continue to pose a damaging wind threat,
   and a brief tornado remains possible as well as the line intersects
   the warm front with enhanced shear and lift.

   A leading area of rain and thunderstorms has limited destabilization
   ahead of the cold pocket aloft, and a dry slot is further eroding
   the moist layer from the southwest. As such, the area of severe
   potential appears to be dwindling over time.

   However, the low remains very strong, and cooling aloft will still
   overspread the warm front as it lifts across northern Kentucky and
   perhaps into far southwest Ohio after 21Z. As such, a new watch will
   need to be considered just north of the existing watch.

   ..Jewell/Grams.. 03/03/2023

 

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This is my main concern around here to be honest. We’ve had so much rain, I think a few of the stronger gusts as the low passes could blow over a lot of weak trees with the soft ground. 

 

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