Admin MaineJay Posted February 28, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 28, 2023 GFS at hour 84 for this storm. GFS at hour 84 for the storm that's ongoing. 7 day loop 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 7 minutes ago, NEPAsnow said: cmc at 12 and 18z gfs very similar Great trends over the last few runs on the gfs. Hopefully we continue to see the nao keep slipping west along with the 50/50 stronger and further south/southeast. That’s what we want to see to promote a quicker transfer and not as north movement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tool483 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Jeeze, the 18z GFS looks almost a carbon copy of this storm today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 minute ago, tool483 said: Jeeze, the 18z GFS looks almost a carbon copy of this storm today. Let’s hope not lol. Carbon copy of March ‘93 or March ‘17 works for me! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 28, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 28, 2023 7 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Let’s hope not lol. Carbon copy of March ‘93 or March ‘17 works for me! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 28, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 28, 2023 21 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Need some different timing in the northern stream. The southern low wants to find that shortwave ridging "pocket" as the Hudson Bay vortex kinda retrogrades. A more stout HB vortex would help, but it's only made cameo appearances this winter. So the GFS keeps the system a little faster and a little more east, weakens it/shears it out earlier and further south. There's this one piece that's diff over NE Canada. This is pretty much as the GFS has transferred. That piece in the upper right of the frame eventually does stop the upper low from progressing north on the euro, just too late. I think it's a bad run for me though. I have to be in NJ for a funeral and pick up my son at the train station in Newark at 3:30. I either need it to slow down or rain at least along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 15 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Let’s hope not lol. Carbon copy of March ‘93 or March ‘17 works for me! Lol I think that March ‘17 was anywhere from 1” in my county to 12” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 10 minutes ago, TLChip said: Lol I think that March ‘17 was anywhere from 1” in my county to 12” Anywhere from 25” to 35” here lol 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted February 28, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 28, 2023 22 minutes ago, StretchCT said: So the GFS keeps the system a little faster and a little more east, weakens it/shears it out earlier and further south. There's this one piece that's diff over NE Canada. This is pretty much as the GFS has transferred. That piece in the upper right of the frame eventually does stop the upper low from progressing north on the euro, just too late. I think it's a bad run for me though. I have to be in NJ for a funeral and pick up my son at the train station in Newark at 3:30. I either need it to slow down or rain at least along the coast. Sorry for your loss 😕 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted February 28, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 28, 2023 5 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Anywhere from 25” to 35” here lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said: It’s ok….2016 😂 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 navgem looks good 18Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 30 yr anniversary, a day late, why not 🤪 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 18 minutes ago, NEPAsnow said: 30 yr anniversary, a day late, why not 🤪 That will end up in Minnesota... 🤣 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 1, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted March 1, 2023 SREFs look (compared to previous run) either colder, or slower, or some combination of the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 8 minutes ago, MaineJay said: SREFs look (compared to previous run) either colder, or slower, or some combination of the two. Could be both…looks like the 50/50 could be pressing those heights down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 1, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted March 1, 2023 That lead system tomorrow into Thursday is kinda getting interesting for Maine and NH. Snow PoPs jumped on the SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 13 minutes ago, MaineJay said: SREFs look (compared to previous run) either colder, or slower, or some combination of the two. As the official spokesperson for Central PA, I can confirm it has trended colder. Snow/Sleet the primary higher pops.. at 15z half of the system Rain was preferred. However, the mean total snow is down just a skotche. Some pops from CPA, NEPA and SNY 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 30 minutes ago, MaineJay said: SREFs look (compared to previous run) either colder, or slower, or some combination of the two. Here’s a good sref website for you https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=sref&area=namer&cycle=20160122 15 UTC¶m=500_vort_ht&fourpan=no&imageSize=&ps=model# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 850 temps are much colder on the latest sref. Much more suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 trend on NAM, past 4 runs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Nam coming in colder like a freight train. Curious to see how this ends up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Clapper tracker engaged 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Pretty dry on the east side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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