TLChip Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 hour ago, PA road DAWG said: The last four runs of the eps have been trending further south with the primary and eventually the coastal transfer. So it’s certainly possible it’s a delayed reaction to the block/confluence. I mean as long as the southeast ridge stays “somewhat” out of the way I feel the block would essentially win this battle Just need the pac and ser relax enough to slide one over the mountains. Blocking may hold this south of the lakes and transfer earlier. Will keep more of the EC in the hunt. It’s nice seeing lows around the 50/50 to push the cold/high down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted February 28, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 28, 2023 2 hours ago, PA road DAWG said: Here you can clearly see the trend for the last 36 hours (6 runs) of the eps. Primary doesn’t travel as far north because of the block/confluence which results in a quicker and further south coastal transfer. Keep an eye on this as we move forward. You also see the se ridge relaxing it’s “flex”. Slowing its progress down a hair too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 6z navgem looks similar to eps track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted February 28, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 28, 2023 (edited) So UKie (12z) and Euro (0z) seemingly the warmest and latest to transfer getting the primary all the way up toward London, ON before pushing to the coast....traditionally not the combo you want in the other camp but feel like neither are doing great this year. But both flood my area with the warm nose Edited February 28, 2023 by telejunkie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 28, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 28, 2023 Big difference between 10:1 and kuchera 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 28, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 28, 2023 I think this is an improvement. I just don't want to improve it to an icestorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 28, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 28, 2023 Reminds me of that gif with Homer fading into the bushes 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Just now, StretchCT said: Reminds me of that gif with Homer fading into the bushes Right?! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 28, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 28, 2023 5 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Reminds me of that gif with Homer fading into the bushes 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 28, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 28, 2023 wpc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Differences in the 500MB height anomalies btw the storm departing now and the one coming Friday. The NAO block is more elongated towards Eastern Greenland/Northern Canada (top). Not sure of the ramifications if any. Also with the current system, Euro/Canadian/UKMET gave control to the secondary faster than the GFS/NAM, then the latter came around to the former, now seems like roles are a little reverse. High pressure north of Maine is stronger too for Friday, so what gives. I guess confluence not modeled as strong (yet)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 minute ago, TheComet said: Differences in the 500MB height anomalies btw the storm departing now and the one coming Friday. The NAO block is more elongated towards Eastern Greenland/Northern Canada (top). Not sure of the ramifications if any. Also with the current system, Euro/Canadian/UKMET gave control to the secondary faster than the GFS/NAM, then the latter came around to the former, now seems like roles are a little reverse. High pressure north of Maine is stronger too for Friday, so what gives. I guess confluence not modeled as strong (yet)? The elongated nao is stretching eastward and not westward. West blocks negate any form of a cutter and promote earlier coastal transfers which help the mid atl. East blocks promote cutters with late transfers like we’re seeing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 28, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 28, 2023 Might seen counterintuitive, but at this stage, might want to see the primary curl as far NW as possible. This would occlude the storm, and reduce the warm push in our region, fostering better CAD and, in theory, eventually pinch off the warmth at H8 and force redevelopment along a triple point. Today's storm was originally supposed to redevelop at the mouth of the Hudson river, instead it was around Chesapeake Bay. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 hour ago, StretchCT said: Reminds me of that gif with Homer fading into the bushes Trending for @StLweatherjunkie ‘s backyard 😅 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregRups Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 18z NAM looks improved 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregRups Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 28, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 28, 2023 12 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Might seen counterintuitive, but at this stage, might want to see the primary curl as far NW as possible. This would occlude the storm, and reduce the warm push in our region, fostering better CAD and, in theory, eventually pinch off the warmth at H5 and force redevelopment along a triple point. Today's storm was originally supposed to redevelop at the mouth of the Hudson river, instead it was around Chesapeake Bay. I was thinking about that too. There's not much to go with at 500 if you pull it back to WI. But the system is so huge with it's precip shield, maybe something can spin off of it. I'd rather see it start to peter out earlier. This thing is really wound up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 28, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 28, 2023 I just don't see something to change this in a big fashion. But let it prove me wrong. The SER could exert itself less perhaps. There just doesn't seem to be a lot of traffic or interplay on this run which I can point to as causing a different solution. It doesn't really hit any traffic or obstacles until it's in Canada or NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 29 minutes ago, TLChip said: Trending for @StLweatherjunkie ‘s backyard 😅 The official observation site picked up 36" of snow over the past week with another 6" or so expected tomorrow. While I'd welcome another major storm, I think this one will trend somewhat farther southeast and weaker over the next couple days. I still feel like I'm due for another blizzard caliber storm, but it hasn't panned out so far and it gets more difficult as temperatures warm UP. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 28, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 hour ago, StretchCT said: I just don't see something to change this in a big fashion. But let it prove me wrong. The SER could exert itself less perhaps. There just doesn't seem to be a lot of traffic or interplay on this run which I can point to as causing a different solution. It doesn't really hit any traffic or obstacles until it's in Canada or NNE Need some different timing in the northern stream. The southern low wants to find that shortwave ridging "pocket" as the Hudson Bay vortex kinda retrogrades. A more stout HB vortex would help, but it's only made cameo appearances this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Some hope inspiring changes on the 18z's.. if you live just south of NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Great improvements on the gfs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Jinx 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 (edited) cmc at 12 and 18z gfs very similar Edited February 28, 2023 by NEPAsnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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