Moderators StretchCT Posted February 27, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 27, 2023 (edited) I still have this to cling to Edited February 27, 2023 by StretchCT 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregRups Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 18z GFS does look slightly SE compared to 12z. Wouldnt call it a trend but at least the jog west stopped for now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 12z and last 4 suites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 (edited) Still 12z but oh well dinner soon. Before After It'd be great if you just backed up a bit? Spoiler Edited February 27, 2023 by TLChip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 18z GFS showing the classic State College dump, Williamsport dry slot and NEPA dump blobs. Textbook. These snowmaps are getting quite comical 😄 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 hour ago, GregRups said: 18z GFS does look slightly SE compared to 12z. Wouldnt call it a trend but at least the jog west stopped for now. So here’s how I see it. Regardless, The storm is going to try and cut, that’s pretty much a done deal. The key factor will be the block/confluence and all that up top. How far north or much will it cut before it’s forced to transfer to the coast?? I hear this all the time…..”the confluence is always under modeled”….well, so is the southeast ridge. Places from upstate NY and over into New England will fair well, but places down by me will be boom or bust. Lots of time left for this block/confluence to shimmy this south, or vice versa. But I’m leaning front end thump to cold rain even up by me. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: So here’s how I see it. Regardless, The storm is going to try and cut, that’s pretty much a done deal. The key factor will be the block/confluence and all that up top. How far north or much will it cut before it’s forced to transfer to the coast?? I hear this all the time…..”the confluence is always under modeled”….well, so is the southeast ridge. Places from upstate NY and over into New England will fair well, but places down by me will be boom or bust. Lots of time left for this block/confluence to shimmy this south, or vice versa. But I’m leaning front end thump to cold rain even up by me. Yaaas! Glass half full PARD is so much nicer to read 🙂 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 26 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Yaaas! Glass half full PARD is so much nicer to read 🙂 Haha don’t be fooled. I’m def still glass half empty with this storm. Although I was just telling my girlfriend that all I need is one good storm and then she can have her warmer weather. So was cool w that. So the sooner the better I guess 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandO100 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 I’m a complete novice here, but someone who’s been mildly fascinated with winter storms for the better part of my 56 years on our planet. Here’s the way I see it, please correct me if I’m wrong: multiple factors come into play to form an overall pattern. These patterns can last weeks or months. The overall pattern the last few months has been to drive storms well to the north and west of the mid Atlantic (GL cutters) leaving most of us on the warm and snowless side. The Twin Cities on the other hand have benefited nicely from the pattern as they are less than 5 inches away from being in the top 10 for snowiest winters. As a result, I haven’t gotten my hopes up much this winter from model runs, knowing the pattern points to “no snow for you!” The pattern has dictated play, no? So two questions for those of you much more knowledgeable in here: 1) Can we get a favorable storm track (Miller A, B, something big) even though we are in a pattern that hasn’t produced a favorable track yet for most of us? Can the pattern buckle in our favor even for a few days? 2) Are there any signals that the pattern may change in our favor in the next 2-3 weeks, because the sand in my winter hourglass is quickly running out? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 28, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 hour ago, CandO100 said: I’m a complete novice here, but someone who’s been mildly fascinated with winter storms for the better part of my 56 years on our planet. Here’s the way I see it, please correct me if I’m wrong: multiple factors come into play to form an overall pattern. These patterns can last weeks or months. The overall pattern the last few months has been to drive storms well to the north and west of the mid Atlantic (GL cutters) leaving most of us on the warm and snowless side. The Twin Cities on the other hand have benefited nicely from the pattern as they are less than 5 inches away from being in the top 10 for snowiest winters. As a result, I haven’t gotten my hopes up much this winter from model runs, knowing the pattern points to “no snow for you!” The pattern has dictated play, no? So two questions for those of you much more knowledgeable in here: 1) Can we get a favorable storm track (Miller A, B, something big) even though we are in a pattern that hasn’t produced a favorable track yet for most of us? Can the pattern buckle in our favor even for a few days? 2) Are there any signals that the pattern may change in our favor in the next 2-3 weeks, because the sand in my winter hourglass is quickly running out? 1) Yes. The SSW was to provide that disruption. There can also be other random blocks in bad pattern that can lead to good things. You can see some blocking in the GfS run. 2) Other than the disruption by the SSW I don’t see a change. Eventually the Pacific will change though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 GFS CMC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 28, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 28, 2023 7 minutes ago, TLChip said: GFS CMC Feels like a carbon copy of the current system. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 28, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 28, 2023 Almost into the short rangers. End of SREF run compared to previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Maybe the boundary sags a bit lower than the last? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 27 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Almost into the short rangers. End of SREF run compared to previous run. Storm recognizing and feeling the effects of the block/confluence? We shall see 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Would be nice to get one to sag south for a change instead of drifting north. We never had a -nao this winter, so maybe we’ll get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 28, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 28, 2023 7 minutes ago, TLChip said: Maybe the boundary sags a bit lower than the last? The wave that comes through Wed-Thur is trending slower and deeper. NAM now drops it respectable 10mb in 9 hours. Not going to be a big system by any stretch, but could definitely affect the downstream for this potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 28, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 minute ago, PA road DAWG said: Storm recognizing and feeling the effects of the block/confluence? We shall see Has been the case all winter up this way, especially since the last couple weeks of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Just now, MaineJay said: The wave that comes through Wed-Thur is trending slower and deeper. NAM now drops it respectable 10mb in 9 hours. Not going to be a big system by any stretch, but could definitely affect the downstream for this potential. That’s our 50/50 block. I would most def say slower is better 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 The last four runs of the eps have been trending further south with the primary and eventually the coastal transfer. So it’s certainly possible it’s a delayed reaction to the block/confluence. I mean as long as the southeast ridge stays “somewhat” out of the way I feel the block would essentially win this battle 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 (edited) Here you can clearly see the trend for the last 36 hours (6 runs) of the eps. Primary doesn’t travel as far north because of the block/confluence which results in a quicker and further south coastal transfer. Keep an eye on this as we move forward. You also see the se ridge relaxing it’s “flex”. Edited February 28, 2023 by PA road DAWG 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Also the nao is trending more favorably. Lots of moving parts, but they all work in tandum 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigben89 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 56 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Almost into the short rangers. End of SREF run compared to previous run. So bizarre looking. Like it's trying to avoid Ohio and Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wnwniner Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 15 minutes ago, bigben89 said: So bizarre looking. Like it's trying to avoid Ohio and Indiana. Such is life here for us snow lovers.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted February 28, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 28, 2023 39 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Also the nao is trending more favorably. Lots of moving parts, but they all work in tandem As always PARD, bingo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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