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March 3-4, 2023 | NE. Winter Storm


MaineJay

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4 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

Even in that scenario, places around I80 and just north could have decent fluff factors and maybe do "just as well" as the southern zones. I aint mad at that. Better than seeing it continue to cut harder, run after run.

100% agree.. with the intensity this has, it’s going to lay down where it hits. Also think that precip shield expands as we get closer. I just want one all snow event north of the mason dixon line.. just one lol 

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12 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

SPA likey. NY and NE no likey.

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh108-129.gif

I've had a couple foot+ storms this year, with a few more 6" type events. Not a blockbuster year, but trying hard to get to average.

  Much rather have a miss south to get snow for folks that have had to endure a tough season.

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7 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

I dont know if GFS is going to make any eye opening changes on this run.. hr90 h5 looking fairky similar. If anything, maybe a little more neutral tilt, but a tad more height on east. A wash?

Little better Western ridging. That northern stream shortwave cruising along the international boundary might want to phase in, timing of that, and how much it kicks first are going to be tough to iron out .

 

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Just now, MaineJay said:

Little better Western ridging. That northern stream shortwave cruising along the international boundary might want to phase in, timing of that, and how much it kicks first are going to be tough to iron out .

 

My takeaway is we may have stopped the harder cutter bleeding this round.. improved from 18z, and even moreso 12z. Timing slowing down a bit, which on the other thread you can see how much it slowed down then honed in on CAD. Similar evolution (for GFS) coming on this one?

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6 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_fh108-144.gif

There's a bunch of northern stream shortwaves, right now the GFS wants to keep the streams largely separate. Earlier, the GFS had it mingling, so it was colder and quicker.  That shortwave is now in front a bit, and the southern closed low is finding the shortwave ridging.  Slowing it down, allowing it to gain latitude, and making it warmer.  

  Need this little guy to get on it's horse and dig hard I think. The timing and depth will no doubt change.

Screenshot_20230226-231712.thumb.png.5e7b0d46aa2dfc681d2fee5c80dc4400.png

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As others have mentioned, GFS is improved. It’s definitely a bit south, a bit slower, and the high is a bit stronger. Probably moving to a middle ground, then in a few days, final shifts for better or worse. 
trend-gfs-2023022700-f114.prateptype_cat-imp.conus.gif.0038ff2eb8078e0b7c022ee3035982d7.gif

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25 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

There's a bunch of northern stream shortwaves, right now the GFS wants to keep the streams largely separate. Earlier, the GFS had it mingling, so it was colder and quicker.  That shortwave is now in front a bit, and the southern closed low is finding the shortwave ridging.  Slowing it down, allowing it to gain latitude, and making it warmer.  

  Need this little guy to get on it's horse and dig hard I think. The timing and depth will no doubt change.

Screenshot_20230226-231712.thumb.png.5e7b0d46aa2dfc681d2fee5c80dc4400.png

The NAO looks to still be rather negative at for this forecast time. Assuming this remains the case, I would believe that things would slow down sufficiently to allow mingling. 

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