JDClapper Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Gfs coming in way amped and northwest. Def on its own island, for now. Takes primary all the way up thru Detroit. On to something or on crack?!? Def fits the storm track this season, but we shall see Just saw that.. and I thought it was starting to come into alignment with pretty much every other forecasting tool on earth. But.. here we are. 😐 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 7 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Just saw that.. and I thought it was starting to come into alignment with pretty much every other forecasting tool on earth. But.. here we are. 😐 CMC staying the course. 12z top, 0z bottom. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Goofus is back!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 13 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Just saw that.. and I thought it was starting to come into alignment with pretty much every other forecasting tool on earth. But.. here we are. 😐 I’m always leaning eps. So until I see that change drastically, I toss gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Also, I love seeing the euro be the most south at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 26, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 26, 2023 22 minutes ago, JDClapper said: CMC staying the course. 12z top, 0z bottom. Ukie looks like a middle ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Gefs jogged southeast. So op is out to lunch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFlash Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 43 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Gfs coming in way amped and northwest. Def on its own island, for now. Takes primary all the way up thru Detroit. On to something or on crack?!? Def fits the storm track this season, but we shall see Yeah i dont like the gfs itself trending that way.. may be a guidance catchup with the others over next couple days.. its been the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 26, 2023 Social Media Crew Share Posted February 26, 2023 (edited) Well.. Euro definitely looks north of 00z. Still a decent event for PA, but not the blockbuster of the previous run. Definitely one to watch. UK the same.. Edited February 26, 2023 by Penn State Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 The storm is still there, it is 7 days away and pretty consistently showing a good storm. the gfs doesn't even agree with its own ensembles so who knows whats up with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 26, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 26, 2023 What is this look called? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 26, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 26, 2023 12z summary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 8 minutes ago, StretchCT said: 12z summary So basically, anywhere from Mason/Dixon to Upstate NY in the crosshairs 🤑 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 WPC noon update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 26, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 26, 2023 18 minutes ago, StretchCT said: 12z summary That GFS output looks weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 (edited) pretty similar tracks Edited February 26, 2023 by NEPAsnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 26, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 26, 2023 31 minutes ago, MaineJay said: That GFS output looks weird. Guessing it's a pivotal issue - this is reg vs hires gfs on accupro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cdfarabaugh Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Havent been around much as it's been boring. Kinda got excited for this a bit, but have a real bad feeling this is going to be a midwest storm again the way trends are heading and we will instead be hearing thunder instead of snowplows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 26, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 26, 2023 winter recon flights going out tonight. Not sure how much data makes it into the 0z runs, drops begin at 26/2030, so some should. Quote 000 NOUS42 KNHC 251740 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1240 PM EST SAT 25 FEBRUARY 2023 SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z FEBRUARY 2023 WSPOD NUMBER.....22-087 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 A. 27/0000Z B. AFXXX 28WSE IOP34 C. 26/1800Z D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY: 35.0N 125.0W, 35.0N 150.0W, 50.0N 150.0W, AND 50.0N 125.0W E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 26/2030Z TO 27/0230Z 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT MAY FLY AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR THE 28/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME. 3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT MAY FLY ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR THE 01/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME. $$ WJM NNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 12z top .. last 2 suites bottom 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 For interior PA.. 12z EPS shows high prob of measurable white. It has some bangers (like the op was), but not like previous versions. The 850s mean temp is higher than op, so probably more mix as the primary holds on longer before transferring. Verbatim, this would be an extremely typical 3-6" event with mixing/changeover issues here. 5 days to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Sterling for any in southern mid Atlantic. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... An area of low pressure located over the Plains on Wednesday will move over the Great Lakes throughout the day leading to increased cloud cover over our area and otherwise dry conditions. Afternoon high temperatures on Wednesday will be above normal due to southerly flow across the area. Rain showers are possible Wednesday night into Thursday as the low tracks to our north and the associated frontal boundaries pass over the area. It`s at this point in the long term forecast where there is a good bit of model disagreement and uncertainty. A potent upper level trough located over the western US Wednesday, will track eastward Thursday and Friday digging deep into the central US. By Thursday, an area of low pressure develops along the trough and begins tracking towards our area. There are two main scenarios happening in the global model guidance regarding the specific track and impacts of the low. The 00Z Euro and 12Z Canadian have the low tracking just south of us bringing cooler air temperatures and wintry precipitation. Meanwhile, the 12Z GFS has the low tracking to our northwest bringing warmer air temps, heavy rainfall, and possible severe weather. Both of the scenarios have Thursday staying relatively mild with a few rain showers possible. Model guidance shows the low impacting our area throughout the day on Friday with light precipitation arriving in the morning and heavier precipitation arriving in the afternoon. Despite which scenario plays out, the approaching low late this week will impact our area in some way. Whether it is in the form of heavy rainfall, severe weather, or wintry precipitation, it is too early to tell. We will continue to monitor this system as it approaches . High pressure will build in overhead in the wake of the low pressure on Saturday bringing mild conditions and dry weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 GFS trend since the beginning of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 For the heck of it.. Euro and CMC too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 26, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 26, 2023 30 minutes ago, JDClapper said: GFS trend since the beginning of time. THE GFS snow maps from pivotal always seem to show some weird gradients, particularly on the southern fringes. I know their 10:1 look different than TTs, I wonder if they are trying to exclude sleet, and the 6 hour intervals make for an awkward distribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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