Moderators StretchCT Posted February 25, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 25, 2023 (edited) EPS with flatter flow than GEFS, thus the diff in strength Hr 162 Spoiler Hr 174 even flatter, while GEFS is neg tilt. Spoiler Edited February 25, 2023 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted February 25, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 25, 2023 12z Euro coming in with a middle of the road solution between GFS and CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 25, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 25, 2023 (edited) Sharp cutoff to the north. It's not exactly coming up the coast but usually you'd see more precip out in front to the north. Oh, this looks messy - lots of things to go wrong. Positive tilt might be keeping that precip from spreading north as well as that upper low Edited February 25, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 25, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 25, 2023 (edited) Just seems like a tiny storm for a 982 low Edited February 25, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 25, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 25, 2023 Just now, StretchCT said: Just seems like a tiny storm for a 982 low Speed kills. The high to the north is 1020mb, so I think that not having a pressure gradient you'd normally see with a low 980s low reduces it's impact. Perhaps whatever is steering it south, is also doing the northern edges, as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 WPC probs from noon today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 GEFS and GEPS tracks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFlash Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Here's to breaking the amp cutter for once this year. Gotta have some faith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 minute ago, WeatherFlash said: Here's to breaking the amp cutter for once this year. Gotta have some faith. EPS with several bigguns mixed in there for the interior, and that's been the case for a few days now. Still hope! haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Nice visualization of where ensembles have best chance for significant precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Sterling sets out scenarios… Quote For Friday though, a more split flow develops in the upper- level jet pattern. Model guidance is very split in terms of how this develops and the specific impacts to our region. The upper disturbance within the subtropical jet looks to be plenty strong to push the subtropical ridge towards the east, opening the door for a potential coastal low. This low looks to develop Friday along the Gulf Coast or in the southeast (depending on exactly where the upper low tracks). From there, that is where the big questions for us come. There are 3 scenarios that could play out, and they all are dependent on when/if the polar and subtropical jets are able to phase. The first scenario would take the system to our south and well offshore if the northern stream energy significantly outpaces the southern stream energy. The second scenario phases the two pieces of energy too early, taking the primary low to our west, giving us the potential for rain, but likely no wintry weather. Could even see a scenario where this could produce severe weather. Now, for scenario three we would need the upper low to just track between the first two scenarios. This could occur if the subtropical ridge gets positioned just right or if the two systems were to manage to phase in the right spot, which seems unlikely at this point. This third scenario would produce some wintry precipitation for at least some portions of the area. At this time range though...that is going to be nearly impossible to nail down exactly right. Monitoring trends in the coming days will be key to this forecast, and recent trends have been snowier... So, as this gets closer on our radar, hopefully some good sampling from upper air data will start to help guidance converge on a common solution. For now, this is just something to monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Good old fashioned coastal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 0z EPS has alot of bangers in there for Central PA. 33-50% Id say. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 26, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, JDClapper said: 0z EPS has alot of bangers in there for Central PA. 33-50% Id say. EFI isn't super robust, you want that second darkest green for a "significant event", but brings folks that haven't seen much snow at all into play for some measurable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 minute ago, MaineJay said: EFI isn't super robust, you want that second darkest green for a "significant event", but brings folks that haven't seen much snow at all into play for some measurable. Define "significant" lol 6+ is warning criteria down this way (5+ for Harrisburg region) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rush Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Define "significant" lol 6+ is warning criteria down this way (5+ for Harrisburg region) For this winter enough snow to cover the grass is a significant event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 26, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 26, 2023 26 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Define "significant" lol 6+ is warning criteria down this way (5+ for Harrisburg region) EFI defines the values between 0.5-0.8 is "unusual". So I'm taking that to mean a 1 in 10 year type event. So for a single day, that would mean 4-5" based on climo. And 6-8" for a 3 day window of March 3-5. A 1 in 100 year event would be be roughly 6-9 inches for that one day And more like 12-14" I'd say for the 3 day period. They are based on the climatological averages for any given location. Values approaching 1.0 would signify potential record values for the date(s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 7 minutes ago, MaineJay said: EFI defines the values between 0.5-0.8 is "unusual". So I'm taking that to mean a 1 in 10 year type event. So for a single day, that would mean 4-5" based on climo. And 6-8" for a 3 day window of March 3-5. A 1 in 100 year event would be be roughly 6-9 inches for that one day And more like 12-14" I'd say for the 3 day period. They are based on the climatological averages for any given location. Values approaching 1.0 would signify potential record values for the date(s). Gotchya, thanks! Well, I ain't trying to break no records, I'm just rooting for a 6" system once this year (as is about average) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Well, I suppose. 0z. Ukie doesn't go through 12z Saturday yet. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 26, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 26, 2023 GEFS members. I still think this is too amped. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Just now, MaineJay said: GEFS members. I still think this is too amped. ClapperTracker would agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 26, 2023 Social Media Crew Share Posted February 26, 2023 I’m not posting this as a forecast, but for SCPA this is about as perfect as it gets. Would love for something like this to verify. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 14 minutes ago, Penn State said: I’m not posting this as a forecast, but for SCPA this is about as perfect as it gets. Would love for something like this to verify. 12z ICON looks like it agrees, but a touch north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 26, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 minute ago, JDClapper said: 12z ICON looks like it agrees, but a touch north. Getting blocked and redeveloping,a la Miller b style might create a screw zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 (edited) Gfs coming in way amped and northwest. Def on its own island, for now. Takes primary all the way up thru Detroit. On to something or on crack?!? Def fits the storm track this season, but we shall see Edited February 26, 2023 by PA road DAWG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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