March 3-4, 2023 | NE. Winter Storm

[telejunkie]

3 hours ago, Hiramite said:

As of now, @MaineJay is in the lead for the snowfall contest.  In my quick glance, it looks like the snowfall amounts are up, so someone can pull a ‘Price is Right’ move and guess 7.1” for all locations and probably come out a winner!!  🙃

Will make my input after dropping kids at school tomorrow….can’t let those Mainer’s walk away with the trophy without a fight

[StretchCT]

Nam trend 

[so_whats_happening]

On 3/1/2023 at 6:12 PM, so_whats_happening said:

My thoughts for mid month honestly im pretty sure we are done with snow around this area. There is reason to believe there is a small chance as we still have cold running around but I fully expect a large system to move through the area. Maybe not quite on the level of the christmas storm but a rather strong system. I do expect it to cut NW though best temperature differential/ baroclinicity is NW and has been all season. This will usher in our last big cold blast into the 3rd week of March (from about St. Pattys day on). The NAO should probably push back to neutral by then as well and that will be about all she wrote for the season. 

In the next two weeks I see maybe an inch of snow and that is a big maybe on that front. There is leftover cold that may allow some precip to fall with this system friday/saturday there is another little shortwave that tries to come through but with that much confluence in the area around the 7th I doubt much can push in and then we have chilly weather up until about that mid month storm timeframe I have talked about where we look to get one more cold blast, about on par with how the SSW unleashes cold. I am honestly ready for severe weather at this point we need rains around here to pick up a bit typically this is around the start of our wet season so worrisome going in with a deficit already.

Really hope to be wrong on this statement about no snow, but such a way to experience almost a whole season of no snow to get maybe get a bit as we enter spring. It looks like that strong storm idea is being pushed up a few days 3/10-3/12 is something to watch. Again trying to not be too pessimistic here but still feel this gets tugged NW a bit so far in advance though so time to watch.

This storm though now may be offering us some thunderstorm action Friday evening. We stand a chance at a little bit of snow to mix at the beginning before we push much warmer air aloft. Still think areas in the Poconos and northern PA get into some fun before it transitions to sleet and maybe even some rains nothing more than an inch or two is expected the secondary just doesn't get going quick enough to lock off the warmth like previous model runs were hinting at. The secondary takes over just off the Jersey coast so areas into SNE may have quite the change from Rains/ Thunderstorms along the coast to northern CT/RI and southern Mass having a hefty sleet event with initially a little snow and terrain and areas north of Mass getting dumped.

Mainejay hope you enjoy your snow! Same with Rex and Telejunkie.

[so_whats_happening]

I know we don't mention it much because we tend to just assume winds will be a factor. LLJ tomorrow evening will be cranking in the warm sector. Areas that can mix out or have heavy precip (which is going to be a good chunk of the area) will have to contend with some pretty decent winds. Looking aloft on some of the models and seeing winds at 50-60 knots from 2500-5000 feet AGL out of the SE is wow. As we go into the day on Saturday with drying out and a west wind some areas once again could be dealing with 25-35mph sustained and gusts to 50mph especially across the mid atlantic.

[MaineJay]

NAM 3 a little more thumpy on that leading edge.

[MaineJay]

GYX

Quote

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Surface high pressure will build across New England today,
bringing a brief break from the very active weather pattern.
Partly to mostly sunny skies will prevail with just some high-
altitude cirrus arriving by this afternoon across western areas.
Cool 850 mb temperatures of around -7C will result in near
normal high temperatures into the 30s to near 40 degrees from
north to south. These quiet weather conditions will quickly be
replaced by our third storm system this week, which will arrive
tonight and continue through Saturday.

Tonight surface low pressure tracking over the Ohio River Valley
will move east within a sharply negative 500 mb trough axis
while spawning a new area of low pressure over the Mid-Atlantic
region. This new low will ultimately become the primary low
pressure system as it deepens and moves northeastward offshore
of Cape Cod on Saturday afternoon and evening. This puts our
area on the cold side of the system, resulting in a moderate to
heavy snowfall across much of the region. Snow will begin to
overspread southwestern NH between 6-8 pm this evening before
advancing into southwestern ME around midnight and the Mid-
Coast a few hours later.

Initially the snow will be battling some dry air aloft but this
will gradually erode as the column moistens and greater
dynamics for lift arrive overnight. Snow will become locally
heavy overnight into Saturday morning as a band of increased
cyclonic vorticity moves overhead and the DGZ becomes saturated
with moderate lift. Snowfall rates will then begin to lower
after this front end thump and the low begins to move well
offshore and the DGZ becomes elevated at around 500 mb with the
greatest omega lying below this zone. The latest WPC snowband
probability tracker indicates around a 6-hr window of 1-2"/hr
snowfall rates across mainly southwestern ME and southern NH
late tonight through early Saturday morning, and these will be
aided by a developing coastal front. As a result, significant
travel impacts can be expected and there is a non- zero threat
for a few power outages across southern areas due to the wet
nature of the snow.

Latest ensemble guidance indicates high probabilities for at
least 1.00" of total QPF from this system across southern areas
and the latest snowfall forecast shows a general 8-12" snowfall
across these regions with localized amounts approaching 16". As
a result, the winter storm watch has been converted to warnings
across these areas. Further to the north and east, QPF
probabilities drop off quickly and therefore the watch
continues and it has been expanded some to account for possible
warning level snow further north. Some sleet may mix in at times
on Saturday as well, mainly near the Massachusetts state line.

Stratiform snow ends from north to south late Saturday afternoon
and evening with just some scattered snow showers remaining
through the night. The other potential threat with this system
will be gusty northeasterly winds up to around 40 mph on
Saturday, especially across coastal and southern areas.
Depending on the nature of the snow, this may result in some
blowing and drifting at times.

 

[TLChip]

Stop it NAM you’re going to rope the clapper tracker back in. 

[TheRex]

It is hard to believe that we will be getting hit in about 15 hours with a storm.  It is so sunny and nice outside.  Before meteorology, I wonder if people had an inkling that their weather was about to drastically change.  

[TheRex]

BTV's latest snowfall map.

Quote

 

[TheRex]

BTV has added their northern coverage area to the Winter Storm Warning which means their entire coverage area is under the warning now.

Quote

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 632 AM EST Friday...

...WINTER STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY
AND ALL OF VERMONT...

What`s changed: Based on consensus and upward QPF trends of the 00Z
NWP model suite, snow accumulations have been increased by about 1-
3" across the region resulting in all previous winter weather
advisories to be upgraded to winter storm warnings.

Overview: Current satellite and surface analysis shows the dynamic
system we`ve been highlighting for several days really ramping up
over the Mississippi River Valley where severe thunderstorms and
flash flooding is occurring. Through the day today we`ll see this
system lift northeast into the Ohio Valley by late this afternoon,
then shift in a more eastward trajectory tonight before reaching the
southern New England coastal waters by Saturday morning. Strong 850-
700mb frontogenetical forcing and anomalous moisture advection
continues to be favored to lift through the Adirondacks and
central/southern Vermont late tonight into early Saturday with some
guidance lifting it all the way to the Canadian border. This
supports the potential for 1-2" per hour snowfall rates, especially
on southeasterly facing slopes and could make travel quite difficult
Saturday morning.

Winds: Trends continue to support a strong 925-850mb southeasterly
jet developing across portions of the Adirondacks and southern
Vermont. Mean mixed layer winds near 40kts along the western slopes
of the Green Mountains from eastern Chittenden to eastern Rutland
Counties will support locally gusty surface winds of 30-40 mph late
tonight into early Saturday. The strongest gusts potentially over 40
mph will be located across portions of Rutland County. Summits winds
will be especially gusty in the 50-70 mph range.

Snow: Overall, widespread totals of 6-14" are expected with the
lowest amounts occurring along the Canadian border, and highest
amounts along the southeast facing slopes of the southern Greens and
Adirondacks. High snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr are expected across the
region from midnight through 10 AM Saturday, and areas of blowing
snow are likely along the western slopes of the Greens as well.
While model QPF amounts have come up by a tenth to quarter inch, our
forecast snow amounts were adjusted only slightly upward as
uncertainty continues in regard to snow-to-liquid ratios given the
height of the DGZ and strong vertical wind shear below it. This will
likely contribute to snow crystal fragmentation during the first
half of the event tonight, where we`ve kept ratios closer to 10:1.
As upper low migrates overhead and the low-level jet weakens, higher
snow ratios should be observed on Saturday, though the overall
intensity of snowfall will be weakening.

 

[TheRex]

The one thing I've learned living here is that a low Froude number is good my side (western) of the Green Mountains for snow.  We may get shadowed some during the storm but pick up some additional snow as the storm moves away.  It sounds like it will be an interesting 24 hours.

Quote

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 348 AM EST Friday...Lingering mountain snow showers Froude
numbers less than 0.5 Saturday night suggests possible blocked flow,
favoring western upslope snow showers in the eastern Champlain
Valley, BTV, and Western slopes. Gap winds are also possible.
Mesoscale NWP soundings also indicate a decently moist sounding up
to 500mb for BTV Saturday night, so certainly could see an
additional inch or two of accumulation overnight while the parent
low pressure pulls away into the Atlantic Ocean.

 

Edited March 3, 2023 by TheRex

[StretchCT]

<sigh>

18 hours before the start of the event and it's whittled down to a trace to 7"

0z run

 

12 hours before 0.2 to 5.2

6z run

 

[so_whats_happening]

41 minutes ago, TheRex said:

It is hard to believe that we will be getting hit in about 15 hours with a storm.  It is so sunny and nice outside.  Before meteorology, I wonder if people had an inkling that their weather was about to drastically change.  

Fascinating stuff right how moving of air and waviness can abruptly change things.

[telejunkie]

46 minutes ago, TheRex said:

It is hard to believe that we will be getting hit in about 15 hours with a storm.  It is so sunny and nice outside.  Before meteorology, I wonder if people had an inkling that their weather was about to drastically change.  

Beautiful out there....unfortunately my son slipped on an icy step coming down off the porch this morning as we were heading out for school and fell hard on his back. Kept him home to monitor...luckily no point tenderness along his spine.

Alright, need to start conceding that I may have underestimated the downstream block and secondary reformation along the coast....and that I may be in for a pretty good storm. SREF has backed off the sleet threat from yesterday and while sleet may come down for a bit in the morning hours and then dry slotted through the morning, it seems like it will be limited. Just hoping I can get home tonight before roads start to get bad.

[TLChip]

If you’ve been getting snow I’d assume that’s roughly where it sets up again, wobbles of like 50 miles. Small differences but overall Lows ride up to lakes gets blocked transfers late… been warm down here the past 2 days, assuming that warm air will lift again. This one does look to stay south for those northern Mainers.
 

Hoping next weeks storms breaks this up, this year though…. 😅

Edited March 3, 2023 by TLChip

[TLChip]

Quote

Snowfall totals around the White Mountains, and the state for that matter, will vary with this system. As of this morning, mountains and slopes north of the Presidential Range look to be in the 6 to 10 inch range while southern summits and slopes will be closer to a foot with some localized totals possibly reaching 18 inches by the time the system exits and upslope snow tapers Sunday morning. Wind at all elevations will be increasing and shifting Friday night into Saturday. The resulting blowing snow will generate deeper drifts in areas that will be continuously shifting as wind directions rotate nearly 360 degrees - going counterclockwise from NW to S to E then N and finally NW - from now through Sunday morning. The whipped-up snow when combined with fog and moderate to heavy snowfall overnight into Saturday, could lead to whiteout conditions at times, especially in areas near or above treeline. And with snow on the move, it is likely going to affect neighboring ravines and gullies this weekend; so please be sure to check the Mt Washington Avalanche Center (mountwashingtonavalanchecenter.org) for their assessments and avalanche outlooks.
Ryan Knapp -- Staff Meteorologist
Updated at 4:50 AM on Friday

Rock pile fun

 

[Sentinel]

Side note.. Did anyone see this? 

[TLChip]

1 minute ago, Uscg Ast said:

Side note.. Did anyone see this? 

Nope only saw the one for 10-12. Would be cool to set snow records in late March if the pattern breaks. 

[Sentinel]

1 minute ago, TLChip said:

Nope only saw the one for 10-12. Would be cool to set snow records in late March if the pattern breaks. 

I mean it's fantasy range.. But. 955 mb on the bm... 

[TLChip]

5 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said:

I mean it's fantasy range.. But. 955 mb on the bm... 

Exactly, we’ve seen quite a few ride the coast between 6-12 days out, none happened this year. 
 

Not sure if the SER just exceeded models all year and the combination of the PAC being relentless. 

This is some of the best blocking we’ve seen all year, even this storm looks to shunt the upper NE a bit. 

Edited March 3, 2023 by TLChip

[telejunkie]

3 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said:

I mean it's fantasy range.. But. 955 mb on the bm... 

 

[telejunkie]

12z HRRR upping the ante....

[NEPAsnow]

hrrr seems to be trending colder with each run

[MDBlueridge]

Hi all! Been an uneventful winter in the apps. Rinse and repeat. Right now heavy snow. To be followed by rain. As has been snow is very elevation dependent. 

[twinmama08]

Hardest snow I have seen all year coming down right now.  Big, fat flakes!