March 3-4, 2023 | NE. Winter Storm

[telejunkie]

4 minutes ago, TheRex said:

It will be interesting to see if today's 12Z GFS goes a little north because it seems the GFS is backing down from the storm being a bit further north.  I also think that ALB is more bullish on this storm than BTV.  BTV's coverage are doesn't have any areas of 12"+ that i can tell.

I don't discount those totals....just with the way things have shaken out and seeing NAM and its 3k version, would just push that all like 60-100 miles north. The warm nose has been the only thing to have always overperformed this winter....

Edited March 2, 2023 by telejunkie

[TheRex]

A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for what I think is the entire BTV coverage area.  From their discussion earlier, they still aren't convinced what areas are going to get hit the hardest.

Quote

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Burlington VT
314 AM EST Thu Mar 2 2023

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>011-016>021-022215-
/O.NEW.KBTV.WS.A.0004.230304T0000Z-230305T0000Z/
Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Eastern Clinton-
Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Southwestern St. Lawrence-Grand Isle-
Western Franklin-Orleans-Essex-Western Chittenden-Lamoille-
Caledonia-Washington-Western Addison-Orange-Western Rutland-
Eastern Franklin-Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison-
Eastern Rutland-Western Windsor-Eastern Windsor-
Including the cities of Massena, Norfolk, Fort Covington, Malone,
Champlain, Plattsburgh, South Colton, Star Lake, Saranac Lake,
Tupper Lake, Dannemora, Ellenburg, Lake Placid, Newcomb,
Port Henry, Ticonderoga, Ogdensburg, Potsdam, Gouverneur,
Alburgh, South Hero, St. Albans, Swanton, Derby, Newport,
Island Pond, Lunenburg, Burlington, Shelburne, Johnson, Stowe,
Hardwick, St. Johnsbury, Montpelier, Waitsfield, Middlebury,
Vergennes, Bradford, Randolph, Fair Haven, Rutland,
Enosburg Falls, Richford, Richmond, Underhill, Bristol, Ripton,
East Wallingford, Killington, Bethel, Ludlow, Springfield,
and White River Junction
314 AM EST Thu Mar 2 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12
  inches possible.

* WHERE...All of northern New York and Vermont.

* WHEN...From Friday evening through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to begin across the region
  late Friday evening and become moderate to locally heavy Friday
  night into Saturday morning before tapering off Saturday
  afternoon.

 

[TheRex]

1 minute ago, telejunkie said:

I don't discount those totals....just with the way things have shaken out and seeing NAM and its 3k version, would just push that all like 60-100 miles north. The warm nose has pretty much always overperformed this winter....

I agree, warmth has been able to creep into our systems most of the winter.  Except for two short-term occasions this winter that I can recall, there hasn't been any really cold weather this winter.  I am surprised that it isn't expected to be that cold following this storm even though we will have fresh snow on the ground.

[telejunkie]

48 minutes ago, TheRex said:

I agree, warmth has been able to creep into our systems most of the winter.  Except for two short-term occasions this winter that I can recall, there hasn't been any really cold weather this winter.  I am surprised that it isn't expected to be that cold following this storm even though we will have fresh snow on the ground.

Still thinking Rt 4 to Rt 2 is the jackpot for this one....

[telejunkie]

GFS is not handling p-type well imho, visible well here at hr 42 there is nothing to impede the push of warm air surging north from the primary as the coastal has still yet to form. Higher rez models are much more aggressive with this mid-level warming

[TheRex]

Come Sunday we will know who was right. If western Mass has a foot of snow, the GFS is correct. If there are only a few wet inches, the NAM was correct. Surprised to see such a big difference for Mass this close to a storm. 

[StretchCT]

Here's a bunch of the modeled snowmaps.  All over the place with zero to nine inches imby. The event starts here in just over 24hrs.

This is the official forecast

There's not even a hazardous weather outlook issued for my area.  

Which is why forecasting off a snow map is dangerous.  Even if I averaged out the 12 runs, I still have 3.8". Now it would be weird if that happened, but anyone relying on the Fv3 which is supposed to be the model we look at, would be making a bad forecast. 

Edited March 2, 2023 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Even crazier is that the 850 temps aren't that far off from the most different outcomes.  NAM3k has 0 snow until you get to VT while HRRR has me with 9 inches and GFS at 4. 

 

Looking at skews, the NAM has the greatest warm nose - the entre 800-700mb layer it seems. HRRR peaks at 700mb with 0c. GFS is barely over 0 at 700mb.   Also wondering why the NAM is so slow.  It's really out there on this one.  

[JDClapper]

18z HRRR shows a decent sleet storm for i80 to the NY/PA border, which seems to be feeding into the snowmap in error. Anything but rain, and thatd be cool

[TLChip]

last year I had snow/sleet/ZR events. This year is brutal, I just want something frozen.

Amazing how different some of these outputs are from the models. 

Edited March 2, 2023 by TLChip

[TLChip]

1 hour ago, StretchCT said:

Which is why forecasting off a snow map is dangerous.

Most storms I like to see the snow depth change. Burned many times when I was younger looking at snowfall maps 😅

[Brodozer1]

just more crap for ct . trying to be positive here at least there is no drought. and my snowblower is still in storage mode. 

Edited March 2, 2023 by Brodozer1

[TheRex]

BTV has issued a Winter Storm Warning for most of theircoverage area. Places nearest the Canadian border aren't included in the warning. 

Quote

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Burlington VT
258 PM EST Thu Mar 2 2023

NYZ029>031-034-035-087-VTZ005-006-008>011-017>021-031000-
/O.UPG.KBTV.WS.A.0004.230304T0000Z-230305T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBTV.WS.W.0005.230304T0200Z-230304T2100Z/
Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Southwestern St. Lawrence-
Western Chittenden-Lamoille-Washington-Western Addison-Orange-
Western Rutland-Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison-
Eastern Rutland-Western Windsor-Eastern Windsor-
Including the cities of South Colton, Star Lake, Saranac Lake,
Tupper Lake, Dannemora, Ellenburg, Lake Placid, Newcomb,
Port Henry, Ticonderoga, Ogdensburg, Potsdam, Gouverneur,
Burlington, Shelburne, Johnson, Stowe, Montpelier, Waitsfield,
Middlebury, Vergennes, Bradford, Randolph, Fair Haven, Rutland,
Richmond, Underhill, Bristol, Ripton, East Wallingford,
Killington, Bethel, Ludlow, Springfield, and White River Junction
258 PM EST Thu Mar 2 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Moderate to heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations
  of 6 to 12 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph along the
  western slopes of the Green Mountains.

* WHERE...Central and Southern Vermont, the Southern Champlain
  Valley, the northern Adirondacks, and southern St. Lawrence
  County.

* WHEN...From 9 PM Friday to 4 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult, especially late Friday
  night and into Saturday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will be heaviest during the pre-dawn
  hours on Saturday, when snowfall rates may exceed 1 inch per
  hour.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

Please allow extra time if travel is necessary.

 

[buxtonian]

up to 1.5 feet of snow forecast for Buxton, Maine, Yeah, right.   i will believe it when   I see it.

[telejunkie]

Burlington started to make that expected shift northward. Can see Bennington, VT, which on this morning's map was expecting 11.1" is now down to 5.2"...I definitely expect that trend to continue.

[StretchCT]

GFS Trend - now NEPA for 6"

[MaineJay]

58 minutes ago, buxtonian said:

up to 1.5 feet of snow forecast for Buxton, Maine, Yeah, right.   i will believe it when   I see it.

Reading the GYX discussion, their current thinking is only isolated 12"+.  The map they have up is a bit misleading.  When looking at probabilities for 12"+ there's only a small area above 50% to your SW.

[Hiramite]

As of now, @MaineJay is in the lead for the snowfall contest.  In my quick glance, it looks like the snowfall amounts are up, so someone can pull a ‘Price is Right’ move and guess 7.1” for all locations and probably come out a winner!!  🙃

[buxtonian]

2 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Reading the GYX discussion, their current thinking is only isolated 12"+.  The map they have up is a bit misleading.  When looking at probabilities for 12"+ there's only a small area above 50% to your SW.

I am confused. (as usual). NWS predict 4-8 friday night, 5-9 saturday, 1" sat night. Adding up the totals I get  10-18" for the storm. 

[MaineJay]

16 minutes ago, buxtonian said:

I am confused. (as usual). NWS predict 4-8 friday night, 5-9 saturday, 1" sat night. Adding up the totals I get  10-18" for the storm. 

Correct, but forecasting 10-18" isn't really saying you'll get 18".  Probabilistic forecasts show a 5-10% of 18", hence that is set as the upper bound, possible, but not likely.

There's a 75% chance of at least 8", so good chances it exceeds that number, but still not a definite. The 50/50 level seems about 11", which is what I would call the "forecast".

I know for my area, snowfall can vary quite a bit once you get off the hills, even over a mile or two.  So ranges with probabilities are better ways to express snowfall chances in my opinion.  But they are fairly new, and it will take time to get used to them.

I hope in the future, they expand the locations for the box and whiskers plots, as I feel they best describe the spread and highest probabilities.

[MaineJay]

NAM trend.

[buxtonian]

13 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Correct, but forecasting 10-18" isn't really saying you'll get 18".  Probabilistic forecasts show a 5-10% of 18", hence that is set as the upper bound, possible, but not likely.

There's a 75% chance of at least 8", so good chances it exceeds that number, but still not a definite. The 50/50 level seems about 11", which is what I would call the "forecast".

I know for my area, snowfall can vary quite a bit once you get off the hills, even over a mile or two.  So ranges with probabilities are better ways to express snowfall chances in my opinion.  But they are fairly new, and it will take time to get used to them.

I hope in the future, they expand the locations for the box and whiskers plots, as I feel they best describe the spread and highest probabilities.

 

Thanks, MaineJay

[MaineJay]

That warm nose is pretty elevated.

 

[TheRex]

Seems like the NAM, compared to the 12Z, decided to take some snow from the US and give it to Canada.

Quote

 

[Sentinel]

7 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Even crazier is that the 850 temps aren't that far off from the most different outcomes.  NAM3k has 0 snow until you get to VT while HRRR has me with 9 inches and GFS at 4. 

 

Looking at skews, the NAM has the greatest warm nose - the entre 800-700mb layer it seems. HRRR peaks at 700mb with 0c. GFS is barely over 0 at 700mb.   Also wondering why the NAM is so slow.  It's really out there on this one.  

I am not positive this is done trending quite SE yet. 

 

That withstanding, it has been a bit warmer the past couple days. Fortunately. 

 

We shall see. While the warm tongue at H7 is likely to eject pretty far N, I would argue that the Low Level Cold Air has a shot at brining wintry right down to the coast.