Moderators StretchCT Posted March 1, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 1, 2023 GFS also never brings >0 at 850 temps to CT. Here is that trend too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 1, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 1, 2023 And to wrap up the trends, ground temps.😡 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 1, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 1, 2023 3 hours ago, TLChip said: I have some hope for this, SWH also had some hope for the 3rd week of March so maybe 2 shots yet. My thoughts for mid month honestly im pretty sure we are done with snow around this area. There is reason to believe there is a small chance as we still have cold running around but I fully expect a large system to move through the area. Maybe not quite on the level of the christmas storm but a rather strong system. I do expect it to cut NW though best temperature differential/ baroclinicity is NW and has been all season. This will usher in our last big cold blast into the 3rd week of March (from about St. Pattys day on). The NAO should probably push back to neutral by then as well and that will be about all she wrote for the season. In the next two weeks I see maybe an inch of snow and that is a big maybe on that front. There is leftover cold that may allow some precip to fall with this system friday/saturday there is another little shortwave that tries to come through but with that much confluence in the area around the 7th I doubt much can push in and then we have chilly weather up until about that mid month storm timeframe I have talked about where we look to get one more cold blast, about on par with how the SSW unleashes cold. I am honestly ready for severe weather at this point we need rains around here to pick up a bit typically this is around the start of our wet season so worrisome going in with a deficit already. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted March 1, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 1, 2023 The Guess the Snowfall contest is a go!! https://www.wxsphere.com/topic/315-march-3-4-2023-guess-the-snowfall-contest/#comment-43055 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tool483 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 45 minutes ago, StretchCT said: And to wrap up the trends, ground temps.😡 That run has to sting a little, good news is you've got time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 2, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted March 2, 2023 31.1° with big ole flakes falling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 (edited) Man, this winter is downright killer. By far the most painful one I ever experienced. Here I go kicking the can down the road to the 3/10-15 timeframe now…. Wait until you see the raging +pna and raging west based -nao we get during all of April into May. #torture Edited March 2, 2023 by PA road DAWG 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 2, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 2, 2023 2 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Man, this winter is downright killer. By far the most painful one I ever experienced. Here I go kicking the can down the road to the 3/10-15 timeframe now…. Wait until you see the raging +pna and raging west based -nao we get during all of April into May. #torture You stand a decent chance with this one. It wont be a block buster but for sure a solid snow is still at play for you. Key is just how far the push of warmth is in the upper levels. It may be a situation where allentown on north gets into some fun before we run the precip out and it slowly warms. We stand a chance of a little bit of snow down this way. The front coming through tomorrow is weak and does not have a lot of cold air behind it but what it does have is a large amount of dry air aloft. This could allow your area to hold onto the cold a bit longer than modeled. It will be interesting to see what the skew T's pump out Friday morning. NAM still trending to a slow exit of the system tomorrow evening. Lets see what happens. You guys in terrain stand a much better chance than the flat landers and areas from NYC south really may only get some flakes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 2, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 2, 2023 Im not too concerned with model SLP output but NAM is seeing a different orientation in the trough less umpphhh on the energy going into the lower lakes means jet is shunted south and east a bit. More ridging and less troughy look behind the system as well which will change jet orientation. GFS with a similar look of less 250mb jet action pushing into PA and more so sliding just south placing strong lift in the area of northern PA into SENY and inner SNE, coastal regions will suffer unfortunately. Looking like snow to heavy at times going to a sleet fest. Maybe solid 2-4" in those regions before it switches. Obviously though the further north one gets the better the opportunity at all snow. Talking about you central NY and Mass on north. Lets not forget to add the Euro too also showing a fairly similar approach. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted March 2, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 2, 2023 I personally do not believe that we have seen the southern extent of the wintry wx yet. While the NAO is not necessarily flexing, it is still stronger than many of these models are viewing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 19 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said: I personally do not believe that we have seen the southern extent of the wintry wx yet. While the NAO is not necessarily flexing, it is still stronger than many of these models are viewing. Perhaps but the 50/50 is more east too though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Lots of moving parts ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buxtonian Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 2 hours ago, MaineJay said: 31.1° with big ole flakes falling. We had four fat flakes, okay, maybe five. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 2, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted March 2, 2023 The hors d'oeuvre is coming down pretty good. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 2, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted March 2, 2023 Just in case anyone forget what winter looks like. PXL_20230302_115511558.TS.mp4 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 BTV's snowfall map for Friday/Saturday's event. It's an Oprah map, everyone get's snow. Quote 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayuphere Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 31.5°F, light snow. It’s looking like last months -17.9°F will be this winter’s lowest temp(compared to two -29°F nights last year). Not too extreme for my neck of the woods other than the high wind/low wind chill event wild weekend. Todays snow should get us to our normal 2 foot early March snowpack depth. Always glad to share with our friends to the south, all good here. Starting next week the joys of living on a dirt road will commence as the sun each day thaws the top surface while the road bed underneath remains frozen with snow banks “damming” in any melting. No rain storms for a few weeks please. A plus, the sap will be running… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 BTV's forecast discussion. They still aren't sure where the heaviest snow will fall and snow ratios will be a factor. Quote .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 424 AM EST Thursday... WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... Heading into weekend, confidence continues to grow that the region will see moderate impacts from a winter storm with warning level snowfall possible. For several days now, we`ve been waiting for model guidance to come into better agreement with this system, and unfortunately they have not. For the life cycle of the storm from now through about 00Z Saturday models are in fairly good agreement showing a deep upper trough and closed mid/upper level circulation currently over Arizona tracking into Texas tonight. Surface cyclogenesis occurs thereafter and the now vertically stacked system lifts northeast into the Mississippi River Valley Friday morning, and then into the Ohio Valley by the days end. Thereafter for Friday night into Saturday 2 camps exist...the GFS/GDPS and ECMWF/NAM with the main differences being the strength/track of the mid/upper level low, and whether or not drier air associated with high pressure over Quebec will suppress precipitation southward. The ECMWF and NAM solutions continue to side with a stronger closed mid/upper level low tracking from the Great Lakes through central/southern new England, while the GFS and GDPS are more of an open wave with stronger ridging north of the Canadian border. The exact track of the upper level low and subsequent development of a secondary surface low will play a large role in where the heaviest banding of snow will occur, and for now we`re leaning towards a blend of ensemble guidance given the uncertainty. Somewhere is going to get a good thump of snow, as dry low to mid- level northerly flow from high pressure across Quebec will clash with a surge of PWATS near the 200th percentile brought northward from the Gulf of Mexico by a strong low/mid level jet. A sharp QPF gradient is expected to occur, and we`re currently forecasting around a half inch across the Canadian border to over an inch in southern Vermont where the best chances for heavier snowfall are as a 700mb FGEN band looks to be focused. A complicating factor in the correlation of this QPF to snowfall will be the snow ratios as soundings continue to show a high DGZ and strong southeasterly flow beneath it which may act to shred the crystals apart during the Friday night timeframe. As the low level jet moves out Saturday, better ratios will likely be observed, but the general idea is for lower overall ratios in the 10-12:1 range. This outputs snow totals from 6-12" north to south, which has prompted the issuance of a Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Saturday. There are still plenty of details to work out with this one, and hopefully as we move into the time range where we will benefit from more available mesoscale guidance, we can hone in on where the sweet spots will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 2, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted March 2, 2023 Some SREF members do have the ole goose egg, as there are some that slip way south of here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted March 2, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 2, 2023 (edited) 🤣🤣 haven't they learned yet? Still sticking with my 1-3" call....alright 2-4"....1" before flipping to sleet, and another 2" after we flip back to snow Edited March 2, 2023 by telejunkie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 HRRR is colder. Anyone want to borrow a straw? I have many to share. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 8 minutes ago, telejunkie said: 🤣🤣 haven't they learned yet? Still sticking with my 1-3" call.... It will be interesting to see if today's 12Z GFS goes a little north because it seems the GFS is backing down from the storm being a bit further north. I also think that ALB is more bullish on this storm than BTV. BTV's coverage are doesn't have any areas of 12"+ that i can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 5 minutes ago, JDClapper said: HRRR is colder. Anyone want to borrow a straw? I have many to share. I've been rooting for HRRR exclusively. It's been sticking to its guns. I'll go down with the ship 🤣 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregRups Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Team Fv3 and HRRR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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