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March 3-4, 2023 | NE. Winter Storm


MaineJay

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Haven’t cared for any of the models this year, didn’t track much either though. Hard to care about rain, I get that the other 9 months.

Edited by TLChip
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37 minutes ago, TLChip said:

Haven’t cared for any of the models this year, didn’t track much either though. Hard to care about rain, I get that the other 9 months.

Yea, I hear you man.  There’s just something different in the way an all snow even makes you feel compared to a front end thump to nix/rain.  Totally different feeling.  

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1 hour ago, PA road DAWG said:

Is it just me or has the euro been awful this season 

Was kinda feeling the same so time to check....

For d3 surface analysis, it's pretty damn good....currently even beating it's ensembles. UK is right behind it.

ScreenShot2023-03-01at2_40_44PM.thumb.png.47df375abe91472177ee912c5900d1dc.png

By day 5 EPS and WPC are better, but it's still killing it vs. other OPs

ScreenShot2023-03-01at2_42_31PM.thumb.png.546a5c439aec0e02338cfd01284b7530.png

Edited by telejunkie
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2 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

For d3 surface analysis, it's pretty damn good....currently even beating it's ensembles. UK is right behind it.

ScreenShot2023-03-01at2_40_44PM.thumb.png.47df375abe91472177ee912c5900d1dc.png

By day 5 EPS and WPC are better, but it's still killing it vs. other OPs

ScreenShot2023-03-01at2_42_31PM.thumb.png.546a5c439aec0e02338cfd01284b7530.png

I guess the 1.9 its missing in perfection is the stormy days lol

Track a dry day from 5-7 days out, i bet it will ha lndle that great. 

Storms, are tricky.

Look at me sticking up for technology lol

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8 minutes ago, NEPAsnow said:

I like this look on the euro, phase 8 of mjo, and good blocking, maybe!!

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.conus.png

I have some hope for this, SWH also had some hope for the 3rd week of March so maybe 2 shots yet. 

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53 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

You guys are giving me survivors guilt. Kinda. 🙃

Can't remember patterns well enough, but feeling like '97-'98 redux where so much of the eastern CONUS torched but Maine ended up above average with snowfall. That was a super Nino iirc.

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2 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

Can't remember patterns well enough, but feeling like '97-'98 redux where so much of the eastern CONUS torched but Maine ended up above average with snowfall. That was a super Nino iirc.

I was living in NYC at the time. There was a 5" snow storm in NYC during March 1998, can't remember the date, but that's about it.

Edited by TheComet
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21 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

Can't remember patterns well enough, but feeling like '97-'98 redux where so much of the eastern CONUS torched but Maine ended up above average with snowfall. That was a super Nino iirc.

The 90's had some of the least snowy seasons in the NY area.  6 of the least snowy 20 seasons fell between 88-89 and 98-99.  What was going on then?

Central Park stats 

97-98 5.5"

96-97 10"

94-95 11.8"

91-92 12.6"

98-99 12.7.

even 88-89 was 8.1

Screenshot2023-03-01at5_20_04PM.thumb.png.a4ba730ac86798a82b2707359e9e6262.png

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Trend on GFS - looking at 540 line.  

I'm also supposed to be in NJ and need to know when to leave.  Every other model has it still dry at 0z.  GFS is way ahead.  This might be why there is some snow over CT to start. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh54_trend.thumb.gif.470497ddb52fcbf93cafd381f1b797a8.gif

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh60_trend.thumb.gif.a85bd171b5d2eaa1aa6e6f056a2700f1.gif

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