NEPAsnow Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 (edited) Edited October 8, 2023 by NEPAsnow 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted October 9, 2023 Share Posted October 9, 2023 NMME Page updated. I'll just put the DJF forecast instead of each month. All except CFS has some cold months. Mostly backloaded. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted October 9, 2023 Share Posted October 9, 2023 woolly caterpillars are 90% brown here, winter cancel 😄 1 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted October 9, 2023 Admin Share Posted October 9, 2023 9 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: woolly caterpillars are 90% brown here, winter cancel 😄 99% of the woolies I've seen in my life are black at the ends and brown in the middle, including all the ones I've seen this year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted October 9, 2023 Share Posted October 9, 2023 We've seen more solid black woolies here this fall than we have in years. Last time I remember this many was in the mid 1980's. But in my opinion woolies don't mean much for a forecast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted October 9, 2023 Share Posted October 9, 2023 (edited) 19 minutes ago, MaineJay said: 99% of the woolies I've seen in my life are black at the ends and brown in the middle, including all the ones I've seen this year. 11 minutes ago, Grace said: We've seen more solid black woolies here this fall than we have in years. Last time I remember this many was in the mid 1980's. But in my opinion woolies don't mean much for a forecast. Its all rubbish anyways haha, just like the acorn crop....which I learned last year actually runs on a 1 year lag so that one is completely debunked. The one I would entertain though is if your lucky enough to take a deer in the fall, the amount of fat on the deer when skinning several times I have made a correlation. Last year there WAS alot of fat on one from November but to be fair what happened in December while short term for humans.....was absolutely brutal on nature, so I still call that relevant Edited October 9, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 9, 2023 Share Posted October 9, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 9, 2023 Share Posted October 9, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 10, 2023 Moderators Share Posted October 10, 2023 (edited) 21 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: just like the acorn crop We noticed a ton of acorns falling. But in August. I find this hopeful. It's February and our best looking month for cold. Normal snow depth would be awesome. And the positive anomalies aren't terribly high and in places that typically see more snow. Edited October 10, 2023 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 7 hours ago, Grace said: This is my worry. I can see it being dry and cold for a lot of people. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 (edited) Edited October 10, 2023 by NEPAsnow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 55 minutes ago, NEPAsnow said: Link is not working 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 CFS is absolutely lost! LOST!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 We're in a lovely cool/stormy pattern that I think will return in November or December, but until then most of the conus probably goes back to being warmer than normal to close out October. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 (edited) UKMET updated, really nice DEC-MAR DJF, 500mb JFM, 500mb DJF: ENSO **I'll be honest, that gives me the winter vibes, lol. It's only guidance but nice OCT update. Edited October 11, 2023 by Grace 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Snow Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 On 10/9/2023 at 11:33 AM, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Its all rubbish anyways haha, just like the acorn crop....which I learned last year actually runs on a 1 year lag so that one is completely debunked. The one I would entertain though is if your lucky enough to take a deer in the fall, the amount of fat on the deer when skinning several times I have made a correlation. Last year there WAS alot of fat on one from November but to be fair what happened in December while short term for humans.....was absolutely brutal on nature, so I still call that relevant Acorn and other nut crops doing well here, but the deer have not been as active on my trail cams. May be because the bears are more active though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 Saw Raindancewx forecast over on American wx forums. Typical SW U.S. bias from him, lol. Never fails. He puts a ton of work into it & always has the same conclusion. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 35 minutes ago, Grace said: Saw Raindancewx forecast over on American wx forums. Typical SW U.S. bias from him, lol. Never fails. He puts a ton of work into it & always has the same conclusion. If anyone is looking for a signal for an Eastern US snowy winter stronger than what we are looking at for this year then I don't know what that might be. Good luck with that. Nothing is ever perfect but from the analogs to the long range seasonal forecast I can honestly say it will probably be a while before you see anything that looks as good as this. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 19 minutes ago, 1816 said: If anyone is looking for a signal for an Eastern US snowy winter stronger than what we are looking at for this year then I don't know what that might be. Good luck with that. Nothing is ever perfect but from the analogs to the long range seasonal forecast I can honestly say it will probably be a while before you see anything that looks as good as this. That UKMET update is pretty sweet! I'm not sure you can get a better 4 month mean. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 Pretty sure this is all the proof you need that the new ice age starts this winter. All black and curled up dead. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 3 hours ago, Grace said: Saw Raindancewx forecast over on American wx forums. Typical SW U.S. bias from him, lol. Never fails. He puts a ton of work into it & always has the same conclusion. Did it contain the phrase "warm signal for the East"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 50 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: Did it contain the phrase "warm signal for the East"? You know it, lol! You can always count on it, no matter what's going on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 48 minutes ago, Grace said: You know it, lol! You can always count on it, no matter what's going on. It's just happened to be right for a whole bunch of years in a row. Sooner or later it won't be and bastardi will take a victory lap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 I think these are the first winter storm warnings for the CONUS for the season. In the mountains, but it still counts! 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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