Winter 2023-2024 | Discussion and Outlooks

[SNOWBOB11]

Lot of differences with the ensembles there but overall decent look.

[junior]

On 9/21/2023 at 4:16 PM, Pghsnow said:

I went thru most of the youtubers videos for this coming winter.

Was about to comment on where are all the YouTube forecasts at? Thanks for this and the laughs. 

Edited October 2, 2023 by junior

[StretchCT]

On 9/23/2023 at 9:47 AM, Grace said:

 

It always seems to be a cursed winter when it does. 

There have been years where it's snowed in October and November, and not significantly again until March around here.  

Just starting to look at things for this winter.  I only go back to the 90s cause how similar is the earth today compared to pre 1990.

 

So the above are the Nino's since 1990 and how they played out at BDR.  I also did EWR and BDL.  Blue is colder/snowier than normal. ONI is a blend of DJF for those years, with emphasis on J.  

2009/2010 intrigues me since it's in the range of the CFS.  Of course, I don't understand how the 0.5 drop works on this chart but if it's close to 1.5 in Jan, it would fit with 09/10. Now in 09/10 we weren't this far along yet. 

 

A look at SST anomalies from Oct 2009 vs now. Not identical, but not that far off. And what other year on that chart would work? 91-92 maybe, and if it's a stronger Nino closer or above 2 then yeah it's gonna be warm and not likely snowy, though you never know what may sneak in. 

 

 

[NWOhioChaser]

Let’s get some eye candy started to help fuel some discussion. Snow up in the mountains of Utah today. This was near Alta Mountain Ski Area.

 

[StretchCT]

17 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

2009/2010 intrigues

Other comparisons to 2009.

QBO lines up similar too. 2009 was closer to a solar min though. Hurricane season isn't even close, only got to Ida in 2009. Arctic Oscillation was negative.  AO is interesting. It's much more muted this year, actually it's been muted since 2020, but there is that dropoff about the same time in 09 and now. 

[so_whats_happening]

3 hours ago, StretchCT said:

There have been years where it's snowed in October and November, and not significantly again until March around here.  

Just starting to look at things for this winter.  I only go back to the 90s cause how similar is the earth today compared to pre 1990.

 

So the above are the Nino's since 1990 and how they played out at BDR.  I also did EWR and BDL.  Blue is colder/snowier than normal. ONI is a blend of DJF for those years, with emphasis on J.  

2009/2010 intrigues me since it's in the range of the CFS.  Of course, I don't understand how the 0.5 drop works on this chart but if it's close to 1.5 in Jan, it would fit with 09/10. Now in 09/10 we weren't this far along yet. 

 

A look at SST anomalies from Oct 2009 vs now. Not identical, but not that far off. And what other year on that chart would work? 91-92 maybe, and if it's a stronger Nino closer or above 2 then yeah it's gonna be warm and not likely snowy, though you never know what may sneak in. 

 

 

The CFS I am pretty sure just goes off what is occurring at the time the observation is made and factors it into the forecast. So when there is a warming episode it will push it much higher than what actually occurs and the same is for when there is cooling taking place. I can't see us going down to 1C anomaly in 3.4 through this month but it should hold consistently around 1.4-1.5 area until we get some type of push from a WWB or KW event.

This is possible as we go through the month though models are hinting at some type of warming pattern as we go into end of the month and November. So I would not be surprised to see us go to about 1.9-2C area for 3.4 by November but think that is about where the top goes. If we do indeed get tropical activity to occur in the EPAC then it should set off a minor WWB event that would propagate westward if we had something from the WPAC working in tandem we would see another August level warming but im not sure we see something like that.

Unless we see a really strong KW/WWB event emerge I think we have peaked with OHC for the year and look to slowly decline from here but there is still enough to help push 3.4 higher under the surface. We looked to have peaked with region 1+2 back in the beginning of August. Region 3 also may have peaked at this point at the beginning of September so I would expect 3.4 to follow suit and peak around end of October/ early November. Slow demise seems likely right now with the lack of a strong cold anomaly push in the subsurface showing up. I think I would be much more surprised if we peaked in 3.4 at the end of September.

[StormfanaticInd]

Hmmmmmm.... A sign of things to come?🤔

[Grace]

GFS 35 day forecast for snow:

 

[so_whats_happening]

If we are exclusively using the idea that 3.4 will attain strong/super (very unlikely at this point) status. Dec, Jan, and Feb follow as such from years where we hit strong to super status. I did not include 1987/88 as that year peaked extremely early (August) and slowly fell toward moderate as we got to winter. While I did include 1991/92 and 09/10 as they both did attain strong status but much later in the season (end of the year).

December looks about as normal as it has been over the last 8 or so years. While February could spark a lot of fun if things hold.

 

[Grace]

Paul Roundy is on board for a big JFM! 

[StormfanaticInd]

Put this upcoming pattern in dec-feb and things could really get going ❄️ 

[StLweatherjunkie]

On 4/23/2023 at 8:20 AM, StLweatherjunkie said:

Hot take: this is your 2023-24 winter pattern preview:

The similarities are striking if I may say so myself:

On 4/23/2023 at 1:28 PM, StLweatherjunkie said:

Not sure about Europe, but western conus troughing was the dominant cool season pattern. The graphic I posted shows at least the fourth large, slow-moving closed low across the eastern conus already this spring ... Something that wasn't seen at all during winter.

As far as I'm concerned, it's mother nature providing a clue for the next cool season. 

Overall, it's nice to see others getting on board with the eastern trough idea.

I'm planning to dig thru the data and put my season/year outlook together soon. Probably won't be as bold of a prediction as it was last spring though.

[Hiramite]

I didn't see this (Accu's winter forecast) posted yet.  FWIW..

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/us-winter-forecast-for-the-2023-2024-season/1583853

[Grace]

EURO Seasonal Updated 

DEC

 

JAN

 

FEB

Edited October 5, 2023 by Grace

[Grace]

Paul Roundy's MJO tools showing early DEC cold pattern:

 

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjo.html

 

Looks like it's predicting a big -EPO. Yep, it's a long way away....just for fun. 

Edited October 5, 2023 by Grace

[so_whats_happening]

12 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

The similarities are striking if I may say so myself:

Overall, it's nice to see others getting on board with the eastern trough idea.

I'm planning to dig thru the data and put my season/year outlook together soon. Probably won't be as bold of a prediction as it was last spring though.

Nice

[SOMOSnow]

Fwiw. Just an opinion. No need for attacks if you disagree with him.

 

Edited October 6, 2023 by SOMOSnow

[so_whats_happening]

5 hours ago, SOMOSnow said:

Fwiw. Just an opinion. No need for attacks if you disagree with him.

 

It definitely is a battle between models on this. Euro shows warming continuing through December before we see it decline not sure what it shows for 1+2 since 3.4 is so heavily talked about. Anyway I could be wrong but I am pretty sure a true modoki tends to have negative anomalies in the 1+2 region so that more of the focus can be further west this definitely pushes the idea of basin wide from a typical El Nino(or east based as some call it) look that we have had thus far. Im not sure we have seen a huge crash in 1+2 to warrant such an event like this to occur. A comparable year to recent would be 2015/16 in the look of a basin wide event (if 1+2 do continue to cool) where forcing managed to not be as far east as some of the more notable Super Ninos like 82/83 and 97/98. Now I will agree we very well may have modoki like atmospheric responses compared to just a typical El Nino response considering the WPAC, while cooling a bit, is still rather warm.

Will definitely be interesting to see in about a month where we stand.

Edited October 6, 2023 by so_whats_happening

[Grace]

13 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

It definitely is a battle between models on this. Euro shows warming continuing through December before we see it decline not sure what it shows for 1+2 since 3.4 is so heavily talked about. Anyway I could be wrong but I am pretty sure a true modoki tends to have negative anomalies in the 1+2 region so that more of the focus can be further west this definitely pushes the idea of basin wide from a typical El Nino(or east based as some call it) look that we have had thus far. Im not sure we have seen a huge crash in 1+2 to warrant such an event like this to occur. A comparable year to recent would be 2015/16 in the look of a basin wide event (if 1+2 do continue to cool) where forcing managed to not be as far east as some of the more notable Super Ninos like 82/83 and 97/98. Now I will agree we very well may have modoki like atmospheric responses compared to just a typical El Nino response considering the WPAC, while cooling a bit, is still rather warm.

Will definitely be interesting to see in about a month where we stand.

 

Key take away from Euro though, is that it has backed off some. But also, the Euro forecast has consistently been stronger than observations. 

Edited October 6, 2023 by Grace

[SOMOSnow]

Latest from Judah Cohen... 

 

Edited October 6, 2023 by SOMOSnow

[MaineJay]

Stubborn PDO.

[1816]

33 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Stubborn PDO.

4 years without evena short break? That's insane right? 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

53 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Stubborn PDO.

That's crazy

[MesoscaleBanding]

Interesting...

 

[SOMOSnow]