RobB Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 2/1 12Z NAEFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Long range has a way of humbling, but to me the most likely scenario at this point is a turn to colder weather for the back half or so of February and continuing through maybe the first half of March. Then perhaps a dramatic warmup in latter March, which would probably be to the delight of most folks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Long range has a way of humbling, but to me the most likely scenario at this point is a turn to colder weather for the back half or so of February and continuing through maybe the first half of March. Then perhaps a dramatic warmup in latter March, which would probably be to the delight of most folks. I wouldn't mind that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wnwniner Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 1 hour ago, Hassaywx1223 said: Birds sure chirping today like it’s March first and not February first. Also the next ten days around here sure have the almost Saint Patrick’s day feel and not it’s still winter feel. Regardless of what we squeeze out of what’s left of winter this has been two back to back garbage winters…. I mean just look at it outside does not scream February screams I need to get my yard tools and lawn mower ready This has me debating if I'd rather have a string of average, nothing too exciting winters or a few bad ones followed by 1-2 amazing/blockbuster winters. Might be ok giving up a few duds to get one thats just over the top incredible....i dunno 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 We would need a historic end to winter to make up for what has been a terrible winter 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Warm ups in winter aren’t uncommon, El Niño always has the chance of being warm but with big storms when the cold crashes in. most of the NE is close to average snowfall a bit below, with way above average temps. Different for Midwest I suppose but over here a big storm makes or breaks your average. Top 3 storms imby are more than an average yearly snowfall. 6 of 10 happened in the last 25-30 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandO100 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Just a complete novice/winter weather fan looking to get some thoughts from those of you who are much more experienced with long range forecasting. I live in Williamsport, MD and fully accept the reality of my location when it comes to snow chances. We've had some great snowstorms through the years (Feb 2010, Jan 2016, etc.) but have also had winters with little to no snow. Historically speaking and realistically speaking for MBY, we have about 6-7 weeks left to pick up measurable snow. My question: When you look at the long range (4-6weeks) what do you see in terms of encouraging signals for snow vs discouraging signals? While I'm sure there are a whole host of factors, are there certain things you see that you would go, "oh these 2-3 things look promising, but these 4-5 things are a death blow?" When I say "things" I'm referring to the signals I see talked about that impact the development of east coast snowstorms like NAO, MJO, ridge/trough placement, etc., you know like a "Pros" and "Cons" list. If the pros are greater than the cons than I might cling to some hope otherwise I'll just have to accept my future fate. Sadly my extremely novice view of looking ahead is the monthly weather calendar on Accuweather. PS, February looks sad, lol! Thanks and as always I appreciate the work many of you do who provide such great insights on this forum. I'm largely just a lurker but I read and try my best to extrapolate what my chances are for snow. The forums have been such a downer. I wish there was more for you all to track and discuss and for us lurkers to read and ponder. Be well! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 (edited) 2 hours ago, CandO100 said: Just a complete novice/winter weather fan looking to get some thoughts from those of you who are much more experienced with long range forecasting. I live in Williamsport, MD and fully accept the reality of my location when it comes to snow chances. We've had some great snowstorms through the years (Feb 2010, Jan 2016, etc.) but have also had winters with little to no snow. Historically speaking and realistically speaking for MBY, we have about 6-7 weeks left to pick up measurable snow. My question: When you look at the long range (4-6weeks) what do you see in terms of encouraging signals for snow vs discouraging signals? While I'm sure there are a whole host of factors, are there certain things you see that you would go, "oh these 2-3 things look promising, but these 4-5 things are a death blow?" When I say "things" I'm referring to the signals I see talked about that impact the development of east coast snowstorms like NAO, MJO, ridge/trough placement, etc., you know like a "Pros" and "Cons" list. If the pros are greater than the cons than I might cling to some hope otherwise I'll just have to accept my future fate. Sadly my extremely novice view of looking ahead is the monthly weather calendar on Accuweather. PS, February looks sad, lol! Thanks and as always I appreciate the work many of you do who provide such great insights on this forum. I'm largely just a lurker but I read and try my best to extrapolate what my chances are for snow. The forums have been such a downer. I wish there was more for you all to track and discuss and for us lurkers to read and ponder. Be well! This is my bookmark because I can't recall all the information like some of the wizards in here. https://abington.k12.pa.us/teachers/hurmms/Majorsnowstormchecklist.htm I attached the powerpoint that's at the bottom of that site as well. -NAO is top of the list here and with many members. Edit: I never checked the powerpoint out until today... it has way more info on it. Stormchecklist.ppt Edited February 1 by TLChip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandO100 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 45 minutes ago, TLChip said: This is my bookmark because I can't recall all the information like some of the wizards in here. https://abington.k12.pa.us/teachers/hurmms/Majorsnowstormchecklist.htm I attached the powerpoint that's at the bottom of that site as well. -NAO is top of the list here and with many members. Edit: I never checked the powerpoint out until today... it has way more info on it. Stormchecklist.ppt 2.13 MB · 0 downloads TLChip, that link is great, thank you for sharing. I love the color coded section for needed storm ingredients. It says if you want snow then you want everything in “red.” Gee, when’s the last time we had all of that working in our favor? Thanks again for the resource. This is something I will be referring back too. Lots of other links in there to check out as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arctic Outbreak Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 6 hours ago, TLChip said: Warm ups in winter aren’t uncommon, El Niño always has the chance of being warm but with big storms when the cold crashes in. most of the NE is close to average snowfall a bit below, with way above average temps. Different for Midwest I suppose but over here a big storm makes or breaks your average. Top 3 storms imby are more than an average yearly snowfall. 6 of 10 happened in the last 25-30 years. Warm ups aren't uncommon, but to have 2 consecutive winters that are pretty much one big warmup is very uncommon. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 2/20 0Z NAEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 2 Admin Share Posted February 2 Lol. Last to first, then back to the cellar, or basement, whatever you want to call it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 6 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Lol. Last to first, then back to the cellar, or basement, whatever you want to call it. All I see is a ....nevermind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 (edited) 😬 Edited February 2 by JDClapper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wally Ho Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Am guessing the absence of any late night (early morning) posts proclaiming the mid/late month PV onslaught might mean the long range outlook for eastern cold and snow has dulled somewhat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 2 Admin Share Posted February 2 22 minutes ago, Wally Ho said: Am guessing the absence of any late night (early morning) posts proclaiming the mid/late month PV onslaught might mean the long range outlook for eastern cold and snow has dulled somewhat? I wouldn't read too much into that. It's at the tail end of deterministic runs, so there is not a ton of eye candy to get the dopamine pumping. Ensembles showing a +PNA, -EPO, -NAO, so we have a longwave pattern to work with, just need the shortwaves to get in line, but this details are beyond murky. As far as the PV split stuff, i dunno, I'm starting to get the sense this stuff happens all the time and it's random how it translates. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 hour ago, JDClapper said: 😬 I firmly believe we see mid month cold and snow, similar to what we had in January - larger in scope and effect. Punxy Phil calls for Early Spring. I cannot disagree. --- Uncle Bill calls for two more weeks of Taylor Swift (at minimum) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 hour ago, JDClapper said: 😬 Mind you, we know that winter likes to hang on in the north, but everything points to 1-2 weeks of winter and then back to more of what we have seen so far this year. I am glad to see the southwest cashing in and that should continue into March with some lulls interspersed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anthonyweather Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 6z gfs brings some candy surface maps on and around valentines finally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arctic Outbreak Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 5 hours ago, JDClapper said: 😬 That's my official stance. We'll get another quick burst of winter and then spring will be here to stay. Try again next year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 (edited) 5 hours ago, MaineJay said: As far as the PV split stuff, i dunno, I'm starting to get the sense this stuff happens all the time and it's random how it translates. Agreed, I think it just helps enhance snow when it shows up. If all the other teles line up it seems like the PV doesn’t matter, just some source of cold. Second half of Feb might be the best setup we’ve seen in a few years. 2021? Also feeling the winter for a bit and early spring, not against it if we can dry out instead of cold rain. Phil only rocks 38% or so though… Edited February 2 by TLChip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 2/2 12Z NAEFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 GEFS & Canadian Ensembles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 2/3 0Z NAEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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