Grace Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 Start building that snow pack! 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 We've now entered the "Summer is Overstaying its Welcome" portion of the year as 80s will persist through the first week of October. This will undoubtedly lead to Fall overstaying its welcome well into December, and then Winter overstaying its welcome through April. It's all become so predictable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 Still wondering what role, if any, this will have on winter. So intriguing! 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 8 hours ago, HateWinterWarmth said: We've now entered the "Summer is Overstaying its Welcome" portion of the year as 80s will persist through the first week of October. This will undoubtedly lead to Fall overstaying its welcome well into December, and then Winter overstaying its welcome through April. It's all become so predictable. No science behind this comment, but our season seem to be shifting. For my area it seems a month or so. Just my hillbilly observation though. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 26, 2023 Share Posted September 26, 2023 15 hours ago, beaver56 said: No science behind this comment, but our season seem to be shifting. For my area it seems a month or so. Just my hillbilly observation though. Totally. I know that's the case here as well. Everything has shifted back a month. Not sure what the scientific reasoning is, but it is definitely happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted September 26, 2023 Share Posted September 26, 2023 obviously not a 1:1 correlation because ultimately storm tracks change from season to season, but we've seen a notable lack of GOM moisture driven storms the last couple winters, hopefully a change in what we saw in the gulf states this summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted September 26, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted September 26, 2023 21 hours ago, beaver56 said: No science behind this comment, but our season seem to be shifting. For my area it seems a month or so. Just my hillbilly observation though. 6 hours ago, HateWinterWarmth said: Totally. I know that's the case here as well. Everything has shifted back a month. Not sure what the scientific reasoning is, but it is definitely happening. Completely random thought is that maybe us using a very static calendar and associating these times with weather that is ever changing may not bring about the best results. Precession is a thing that could throw this off, of course this is over thousands of years if I remember correctly it does a quarter jog every few thousand years and one full precession rotation is around 8000-10000 years so it is possible at some point in the future to have northern hemisphere winter in a different time of year. Needless to say it probably wont shift too much in our life time but it is very possible we start to see the system lagging over time in a sense each season does continually act later and later while still keeping the time scale relatively the same. Very complex stuff there but it probably is just due to the lack of cooling in oceans that is enabling things to not shift properly for us in fall and winter and since it still does cool it pushes everything back as we move to spring and summer as there isn't much of a driving force in a lazier jet model to push the next season in quicker even when radiation changes are still a significant driver of changes in the atmosphere and ocean. Again just thoughts overall it probably is wayyy more complex than this but you kinda see that idea. Either way don't always expect things to stay the same in an ever changing world. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 26, 2023 Share Posted September 26, 2023 3 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: obviously not a 1:1 correlation because ultimately storm tracks change from season to season, but we've seen a notable lack of GOM moisture driven storms the last couple winters, hopefully a change in what we saw in the gulf states this summer I'm gonna go out on a limb and say gom moisture will not be a problem this winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 22 hours ago, HateWinterWarmth said: Totally. I know that's the case here as well. Everything has shifted back a month. Not sure what the scientific reasoning is, but it is definitely happening. On 9/25/2023 at 5:51 PM, beaver56 said: No science behind this comment, but our season seem to be shifting. For my area it seems a month or so. Just my hillbilly observation though. In my humble opinion, this is the difference between meteorological and astronomical seasons. Meteorological seasons (djf, mam, jja, and son) are human constructs based on tendencies of past weather and simple convenience of monthly groupings. On the other hand, astronomical seasons (time between solstices and equinoxes) represent the physical quantity of sunlight Earth intercepts. In addition to generally shorter and less intense winters and longer and more intense summers, climate change also seems to be amplifying the role of fundamental physics on seasonality. Just my two cents. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Snow Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 17 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: Completely random thought is that maybe us using a very static calendar and associating these times with weather that is ever changing may not bring about the best results. Precession is a thing that could throw this off, of course this is over thousands of years if I remember correctly it does a quarter jog every few thousand years and one full precession rotation is around 8000-10000 years so it is possible at some point in the future to have northern hemisphere winter in a different time of year. Needless to say it probably wont shift too much in our life time but it is very possible we start to see the system lagging over time in a sense each season does continually act later and later while still keeping the time scale relatively the same. Very complex stuff there but it probably is just due to the lack of cooling in oceans that is enabling things to not shift properly for us in fall and winter and since it still does cool it pushes everything back as we move to spring and summer as there isn't much of a driving force in a lazier jet model to push the next season in quicker even when radiation changes are still a significant driver of changes in the atmosphere and ocean. Again just thoughts overall it probably is wayyy more complex than this but you kinda see that idea. Either way don't always expect things to stay the same in an ever changing world. I have watched quite a few mets giving their thoughts on the upcoming winter based on our current data, and while I love the forecasts for much snowier winter than we have seen lately, I am still trying to be a little cautiously optimstic. These forecasts are based on current knowledge and data, but that is constantly evolving. As you noted, as soon as we get a handle on what has been going on, things change. I am a physician, so my science is anatomy and physiology. What I have learned over the years is both are much like the English language, there are 1000 rules, and an exception to everyone. So I only have to worry about being wrong when I am sure I am absolutely right. I think meteorology is somewhat like that, but maybe more. There are many thousands of rules, and many thousands of exceptions to every rule. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 18 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: Completely random thought is that maybe us using a very static calendar and associating these times with weather that is ever changing may not bring about the best results. Precession is a thing that could throw this off, of course this is over thousands of years if I remember correctly it does a quarter jog every few thousand years and one full precession rotation is around 8000-10000 years so it is possible at some point in the future to have northern hemisphere winter in a different time of year. Needless to say it probably wont shift too much in our life time but it is very possible we start to see the system lagging over time in a sense each season does continually act later and later while still keeping the time scale relatively the same. Very complex stuff there but it probably is just due to the lack of cooling in oceans that is enabling things to not shift properly for us in fall and winter and since it still does cool it pushes everything back as we move to spring and summer as there isn't much of a driving force in a lazier jet model to push the next season in quicker even when radiation changes are still a significant driver of changes in the atmosphere and ocean. Again just thoughts overall it probably is wayyy more complex than this but you kinda see that idea. Either way don't always expect things to stay the same in an ever changing world. For the every day hillbilly like me I am interpreting this as the natural magnetic shift and axis of the earth. If so, yes, it is a very slow process, but observable. This link below is an article about recalibration of airports and how they are adjusting. Now, me being open minded I truly believe that the weather is affected by this as well. Just my opinion though. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/airport-runway-names-shift-magnetic-field 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 Brrrrr.... 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 2 hours ago, MesoscaleBanding said: Brrrrr.... Only a matter of time about on time too one last surge of warm air then bam middle of October how it’s been the last decade 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 12 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said: In my humble opinion, this is the difference between meteorological and astronomical seasons. Meteorological seasons (djf, mam, jja, and son) are human constructs based on tendencies of past weather and simple convenience of monthly groupings. On the other hand, astronomical seasons (time between solstices and equinoxes) represent the physical quantity of sunlight Earth intercepts. In addition to generally shorter and less intense winters and longer and more intense summers, climate change also seems to be amplifying the role of fundamental physics on seasonality. Just my two cents. Climate has always changed and always will change. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 (edited) 24 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said: Climate has always changed and always will change. Edited September 28, 2023 by 1816 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted September 28, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted September 28, 2023 (edited) 15 hours ago, Jon Snow said: I have watched quite a few mets giving their thoughts on the upcoming winter based on our current data, and while I love the forecasts for much snowier winter than we have seen lately, I am still trying to be a little cautiously optimstic. These forecasts are based on current knowledge and data, but that is constantly evolving. As you noted, as soon as we get a handle on what has been going on, things change. I am a physician, so my science is anatomy and physiology. What I have learned over the years is both are much like the English language, there are 1000 rules, and an exception to everyone. So I only have to worry about being wrong when I am sure I am absolutely right. I think meteorology is somewhat like that, but maybe more. There are many thousands of rules, and many thousands of exceptions to every rule. Yea I as well am cautiously optimistic but I feel I have mentioned it before I would be perfectly fine with one solid snowstorm (foot or more) this winter and move on after the last few abysmal years around here, even ending the season below average is fine if this were to occur. This is why I think folks need to understand it is not an exact science especially for going out further in time. You truly are making an educated guess at a pattern from recognition of similar patterns that occurred in the past. Of course we may have to start making changes as the warming climate occurs, but the patterns overall should be relatively similar given similar overall global temp increase. Now it should be noted that in the events of more extreme temps in oceans/regional areas this may be able enhance stronger amplifications of patterns that occur and the opposite can also be true as those extremes could work to combat the typical progression of patterns and dampen overall effects. I wish I had more concrete evidence for this or for that but it is what it is and do the best given the information we can gather and base it on knowledge of what we understand. I think a lot credibility in long range forecasting gets lost with hobbyists and sometimes imprudent mets who act in certainties. It is great to have conviction on a forecast but in the same respect you gotta learn from the faults that come and many folks do not like to take fault cause it is a sign of weakness or whatever. I feel it is fine to be wrong ( I get things wrong many of times) but to look back and understand where it occurred and how to better use that knowledge in the future shows you care and want to learn more. Unfortunately many attack (on both ends) and it just makes it not a great situation. 13 hours ago, beaver56 said: For the every day hillbilly like me I am interpreting this as the natural magnetic shift and axis of the earth. If so, yes, it is a very slow process, but observable. This link below is an article about recalibration of airports and how they are adjusting. Now, me being open minded I truly believe that the weather is affected by this as well. Just my opinion though. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/airport-runway-names-shift-magnetic-field Haha yea the magnetic axis constantly shifts it doesn't tend to move a lot within a decade or so but over multiple decades it has definitely moved around. We look to have quite the acceleration over the more recent years as it shifts near true north and maybe settles over into Siberia area? https://ngdc.noaa.gov/geomag/declination.shtml Cool site I see it with RVR at the airport, we use runway 15L here as the main one and it is based off location to magnetic north. Im sure it does have some impact on weather what exactly that is on our every day is probably rather small and negligible but given enough time it probably does have some impact on climate. It would be great to read a study on something like that. Edited September 28, 2023 by so_whats_happening 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted September 28, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted September 28, 2023 (edited) Anyway I do not want to detract too much so let us talk ENSO. We seem to be going through another stall cooling pattern like we saw back in late June/July in the ENSO regions. If things are going in the correct path we should see one more notable increase in temps coming up here mid to late October given the time that passes between the warming periods so far. This would probably have a WWB/ KW event that may be the final one? and allows temps to slowly decline after that through the remaining portion of winter. I more so hope we can at least get some more solid atmospheric Nino state to occur as we enter winter as right now we have a semi nino state overall but it is very weak in representation even with anomalies as high as they are. I hate to say the overall atmosphere looks modoki Nino like with an SST configuration as we see. We would need stronger WPAC cooling in the area off NE Australia and a push further west of the highest SSTs toward more central 3 eastern 3.4 region (~140W) versus still over much of 1+2 and eastern 3 (~100W). We have had a strong west lean in Velocity Potential which shows we are struggling to couple things right now and thus have a mixed bag of atmospheric responses being sent around. What do find odd is how strong positive VP anomalies are over the EPAC and Central America. For some reason having a hard time uploading the SST anomaly animation so here is the link (weird you can paste the site and it produces this) Edited September 28, 2023 by so_whats_happening 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 October starting to look colder than normal 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 (edited) On 9/27/2023 at 8:14 PM, SOMOSnow said: Climate has always changed and always will change. Can't argue with you there, but what is your point? Do you agree? Edited September 29, 2023 by StLweatherjunkie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 4 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: October starting to look colder than normal We're going to have a couple of 90 degree readings here in Wisconsin over the next 4 days. It will have to really cool off for that to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cdfarabaugh Posted September 30, 2023 Share Posted September 30, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 8:37 PM, 1816 said: Hopefully I don't start getting Gary vibes here. Next thing I'll be getting spased out on and my 50$ donation is refused to be refunded lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted September 30, 2023 Share Posted September 30, 2023 Tis the season for fantasy range eye candy on the GFS ❄️ 2 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 CanSips Updated: DEC JAN FEB 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 CFS for FEB, last 4 runs has a split PV probably from a major SSW. Not skill that far out but is wild to look at...lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 (edited) 16 hours ago, Grace said: CanSips Updated: DEC JAN FEB Here are the ensemble members from the CanSip update: DEC JAN FEB Edited October 1, 2023 by Grace 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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