Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 21 Meteorologist Share Posted January 21 (edited) 6 hours ago, MaineJay said: I don't do social media (abhor it, but I digress) like at all, this is my only outlet or "outside world", so I only see what's posted here. Are folks still taking about this El Niño being a "modoki"? I get that regions 1+2 have cooled, but they are still above the Niño threshold, not to mention the role of off equator warmth along central America. I just imagine the core of the greatest anomaly to be closer to the dateline in a "modoki". Not sure what those folks think as I also don't do social media stuff either. It lost the WPAC cooling quite a bit so that throws the idea out the window for actual modoki look. Someone I chat regularly with though brought up something interesting though. With the -PDO as low as it has been it definitely has been combating with the Nino. So would this sort of act like a neutral ENSO event where the western North Pac is heavily Nina favored and the eastern North Pac is off and on Nino favored? It is an interesting thought regardless of the actual look overall. I will say we are sort collapsing the subsurface conditions though and this will look rather different as we go through February and March as the trades are still roaring out there. I will add this may also be the first January where we have e Nino at the state it is with a +SOI monthly reading. Edited January 21 by so_whats_happening 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 21 Meteorologist Share Posted January 21 1 hour ago, StLweatherjunkie said: Really feels like this same pattern evolution is happening again with 4 weeks of thread the needle events, 2 weeks of torch, then 2 weeks of winter. Maybe all of these numbers should be cut in half to fit my narrative better? Really don't want winter extending into March. This would fit the idea of about mid February setting up shop again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1/21 12Z NAEFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cdfarabaugh Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 27 minutes ago, RobB said: 1/21 12Z NAEFS: You just copying and pasting these Uncle Rob? 🤣 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 16 minutes ago, Cdfarabaugh said: You just copying and pasting these Uncle Rob? 🤣 😄 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/19/2024 at 4:36 PM, Ohiobuckeye45 said: yeah we don't really have the time left to try and make it all the way back around to 8 at the pace thats being forecasted so might as well try something new, and go THROUGH the COD Do you have that link that shows the MJO correlation by month/ENSO? I used to have it bookmarked and its gone. It was partially in Italian I believe lol Here's two. They both offer so something: https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html https://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 (edited) I'll have to admit my confidence is waffling for February. The modeling for the Bering Sea has been all over the place. Just nothing that one could look at with certainty and say here's what's probably going happen. That along with the recent MJO forecasts from last night & a the SPV forevast to strengthen have me worried about FEB. Now the MJO forecasts change quickly, so that's not the all in all. SPV can as well. But the inconsistent Bering Sea modeling, MJO & SPV forecasts together create a muddy picture. On a positive note, JMA, CFS, & EURO Weeklies all call forecast changes for the better but I'd like to see the Bering Sea, MJO, & SPV modeling back it up. GEFS & GEPS both show some potential for further strat warming in 11-15. All we need is something similar to JAN for immediate results & not necessarily a big SSW. Edited January 21 by Grace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Disappointed to hear that. It’s still only January 21st so between now and February there going to be tons of changes with all the LR models. February (last year it was actually march in my area) has been in general the most wintery month the past few years for many areas so hopefully there can be a change in the pattern after the warm up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 22 Social Media Crew Share Posted January 22 Just some thoughts.. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 22 Social Media Crew Share Posted January 22 13 minutes ago, Penn State said: Just some thoughts.. Teleconnections.. -EPO introduces opportunity for cold air, AO and NAO going negative.. (cold, blocking) PNA bottoming, heading in more positive direction (ridging) EPO AO NAO PNA 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 10 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: Really don't want winter extending into March. This would fit the idea of about mid February setting up shop again. This looks so similar to the Christmas storm and there have been several GFS runs and plenty of ensemble members also showing something similar. I think the High Plains should be ready for some action Feb 4-6 while the rest of us get rain and like it. After Christmas, it took about 3 weeks or until about Jan 11-15th for sustained cold temps to show up depending how far east your are. If that holds true with the upcoming pattern then we'll prolly have to wait until the final week of February, I hope I'm wrong 😰 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 hours ago, Pghsnow said: I’d take that look. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1/22 0Z NAEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 11 hours ago, Pghsnow said: Pretty golden for several of us! Thanks! Do you get Euro ensemble SPV forecasts? If you do could you share on here or PM me? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arctic Outbreak Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 11 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said: This looks so similar to the Christmas storm and there have been several GFS runs and plenty of ensemble members also showing something similar. I think the High Plains should be ready for some action Feb 4-6 while the rest of us get rain and like it. After Christmas, it took about 3 weeks or until about Jan 11-15th for sustained cold temps to show up depending how far east your are. If that holds true with the upcoming pattern then we'll prolly have to wait until the final week of February, I hope I'm wrong 😰 The fat lady is definitely warming up! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 hours ago, Grace said: Pretty golden for several of us! Thanks! Do you get Euro ensemble SPV forecasts? If you do could you share on here or PM me? Thanks I do not get them, sorry. I got this one from another weather board. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 41 minutes ago, Arctic Outbreak said: The fat lady is definitely warming up! Not quite... This is the latest GFS run. It looks nothing like yesterdays. Not saying either will be right, just that its 2 weeks away, there will be swings either way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, Grace said: Which means expect more upper Midwest blizzards first. Iowa, Nebraska, & Dakota's gonna get hammered first, then we go SE of there. And I love the part where Eric says: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 33 minutes ago, Grace said: Which means expect more upper Midwest blizzards first. Iowa, Nebraska, & Dakota's gonna get hammered first, then we go SE of there. And I love the part where Eric says: Oh goodie another winter in spring scenario, hopefully that means a good maple syrup season in March and April! Maybe the upcoming warmth makes for good snow biking conditions with a nice crust on the top too? It's not all bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 (edited) Caught my attention - as the MJO comes to our side... Edited January 22 by Undertakerson2.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said: Caught my attention - as the MJO comes to our side... Choo Choo! 😊 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, RobB said: Choo Choo! 😊 The "light" at the end of the tunnel 😉 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 And the CFS agrees which means lock it in... 🤣🤣🤣 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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