Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 (edited) I made a post about the EOTM January storm potential now showing in the modeling, particularly the GFS. Matt (Poc) has discussed these dates in the Daily Thread. I tried to make a post but ended up putting it in that same thread instead of where it needs to go, as a regional threat discussion. I reached out to MJ to move my post (which I hid) to the proper venue, then we can exhaust ourselves tracking it for the next 8-10 days. LOL (PS - there are no spoilers, not sure how I made two with zero content, sigh) Spoiler Spoiler Edited January 20 by Undertakerson2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 20 Meteorologist Share Posted January 20 (edited) The torchy look seems to get muted a little coming up here across the mid atlantic with the impending rain. So instead of flying into the low 60s (sorry ohio and western PA) for a day we may peak in the upper 40s east of the mountains. Although this should only be about a day and then we should still be above average but not quite to those levels. I do question just how strong of an MJO response we get in 6/7 the last time we moved through here we were forecasted a large amplitude (>1) and as time came closer we sunk into the COD. Lets see what happens in the next few days. From the MJO plots above you can see what happen as we got to phase 3 that has since cooled even more and would expect similar results around 6/7. It is important to remember there is a lag MJO of about a week to atmospheric conditions to present themselves. Edited January 20 by so_whats_happening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 I prefer to refer to longer range MJO plots - here's what the EuroEns (aka EMON) package offers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 20 Meteorologist Share Posted January 20 (edited) Here is 4-6, I would expect 6 to be a bit muted but phase 4 has some big highs sliding through which is the forecast over the next week. 5 should show up toward the end of the month which it does look like next weekend we start to see that look with a system that splits the apps one going west into ohio and the other around the mid atlantic before 6 starts to show up in early February ( i used a February plot instead of January for 6 as that is when we will feel the effects of whatever amplitude). That shows once again more big highs but actually pressing a bit more into the NE and GL with a weaker SW low not a terrible pattern. Phase 7 ill hold off on for now to see how things look coming up but shows a high sliding into the middle of the country and that seems like a rather cold signal. In phase 4 and 5 you can see the large +NAO signal showing up so we seem to be on track in that department. Edited January 20 by so_whats_happening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 20 Admin Share Posted January 20 23 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: I made a post about the EOTM January storm potential now showing in the modeling, particularly the GFS. Matt (Poc) has discussed these dates in the Daily Thread. I tried to make a post but ended up putting it in that same thread instead of where it needs to go, as a regional threat discussion. I reached out to MJ to move my post (which I hid) to the proper venue, then we can exhaust ourselves tracking it for the next 8-10 days. LOL (PS - there are no spoilers, not sure how I made two with zero content, sigh) Reveal hidden contents Reveal hidden contents Should be where you intended it to go. I think. 🤪 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, MaineJay said: Should be where you intended it to go. I think. 🤪 LOL - I have no frackin clue what i'm doing most days. Just enough to be dangerous. Thanks for looking into setting me straight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 20 Admin Share Posted January 20 4 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: LOL - I have no frackin clue what i'm doing most days. Just enough to be dangerous. Thanks for looking into setting me straight It took me a few tries, messed up a thread title, but me thinks we are back on track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, MaineJay said: It took me a few tries, messed up a thread title, but me thinks we are back on track. Many thanks 🙂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Popular Post MaineJay Posted January 20 Admin Popular Post Share Posted January 20 Looks like everyone made a new year's resolution to talk more weather! Thanks to all the new members and the generosity of everyone to support the site! When I Google "weather discussion forum" we were the 16th result, I didn't think that was too bad. 2 1 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted January 20 Admin Share Posted January 20 I am not nearly as knowledgable as many of you, but just looking at the changes in the surface outputs of the overnight long range models gave me much more hope than the past couple of days. I can deal with the slightly-above temps that the El Nino tends to bring to my area as long as it includes some storm chances. 🙂 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 hours ago, MaineJay said: Looks like everyone made a new year's resolution to talk more weather! Thanks to all the new members and the generosity of everyone to support the site! When I Google "weather discussion forum" we were the 16th result, I didn't think that was too bad. New Year's reso's and that was about the time models seemingly flipped to a more wintry output for our past 2 weeks, than they had been presenting prior. And maybe, just maybe we will see something similar soon, as Buckeye mentions above. 🙂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wally Ho Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 I realize off topic, dudes, but does the wxdisco website still exist or is it deceased (would be a blessing)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted January 20 Admin Share Posted January 20 11 minutes ago, Wally Ho said: I realize off topic, dudes, but does the wxdisco website still exist or is it deceased (would be a blessing)? We try not to fan the flames concerning that website, but from what I'm aware, they went to a subscription-only model a few months back, and then it was a down-again/up-again sort of situation (depending, apparently, on the financial status of the site's owner). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted January 20 Admin Share Posted January 20 13 minutes ago, Wally Ho said: I realize off topic, dudes, but does the wxdisco website still exist or is it deceased (would be a blessing)? Also, as I tell my sons, I'm not a dude. Or a bruh. 😆 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wally Ho Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said: Also, as I tell my sons, I'm not a dude. Or a bruh. 😆 Thank you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 (edited) Might have to dig my shorts out of the closet🤢 Edited January 20 by MesoscaleBanding 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 hour ago, MesoscaleBanding said: Might have to dig my shorts out of the closet🤢 If it was just gonna be a brief period of warmth, I wouldn't mind this. I want a little outside air in... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1/20 12Z NAEFS: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 20 Social Media Crew Share Posted January 20 Anyone have any thoughts on the February 8th-12th timeframe? Seems to be some BSR intrigue.. teleconnections heading in the right direction it appears.. MJO should be either in 7/8 or in COD. EPS Teleconnections GEFS Teleconnections 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 21 Admin Share Posted January 21 Hopefully this can swing back the other way, as it's still beyond D10, but the GEFS have completely changed it's mind 180° on the EPO. Lower heating costs might be the "consolation" prize. #natgas... I can't say this would be that surprising, as we saw the -NAO transition to a +EPO in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 21 Admin Share Posted January 21 I don't do social media (abhor it, but I digress) like at all, this is my only outlet or "outside world", so I only see what's posted here. Are folks still taking about this El Niño being a "modoki"? I get that regions 1+2 have cooled, but they are still above the Niño threshold, not to mention the role of off equator warmth along central America. I just imagine the core of the greatest anomaly to be closer to the dateline in a "modoki". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1/21 0Z NAEFS 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 hours ago, MaineJay said: Hopefully this can swing back the other way, as it's still beyond D10, but the GEFS have completely changed it's mind 180° on the EPO. Lower heating costs might be the "consolation" prize. #natgas... I can't say this would be that surprising, as we saw the -NAO transition to a +EPO in December. Agree, I think the pattern modeled for the first week of February is eerily similar to the lead up to the lumbering low pressure back in mid/late December that brought big snow to NE/SD, an ice storm in ND, and record warmth across the upper Midwest around Xmas. FWIW, the recent period of weather reminiscent of winter started about 2 weeks after Xmas so maybe a similar pattern will return for the final week of February? Feels bad that the next potential for more widespread winter weather potential is essentially a month away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 (edited) 1 hour ago, StLweatherjunkie said: Agree, I think the pattern modeled for the first week of February is eerily similar to the lead up to the lumbering low pressure back in mid/late December that brought big snow to NE/SD, an ice storm in ND, and record warmth across the upper Midwest around Xmas. FWIW, the recent period of weather reminiscent of winter started about 2 weeks after Xmas so maybe a similar pattern will return for the final week of February? Feels bad that the next potential for more widespread winter weather potential is essentially a month away. Thinking a colder pattern may reappear in mid February. If it's arrival isn't till the end of February this winter is toast so to speak. Edited January 21 by Cary67 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 (edited) 1 hour ago, Cary67 said: Thinking a colder pattern may reappear in mid February. If it's arrival isn't till the end of February this winter is toast so to speak. Really feels like this same pattern evolution is happening again with 4 weeks of thread the needle events, 2 weeks of torch, then 2 weeks of winter. Maybe all of these numbers should be cut in half to fit my narrative better? Edited January 21 by StLweatherjunkie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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