Winter 2023-2024 | Discussion and Outlooks

[RobB]

1/18 12Z NAEFS:

[StormfanaticInd]

Ice threat next week still alive and well. Won't take much with very cold ground 

[JDClapper]

Here in interior PA, 12z EPS isn't too torchy.  Brief spike to 50 on Fri 26th, but other than that.. around 40, give or take and then back to near normal after.  Yeah, it's AN after Tuesday, so the map verifies, but way better than Dec.

[Organicforecasting]

On 1/16/2024 at 5:54 PM, George Acton said:

Grace, thx for bringing up the BSR. That can be a big mover. Always impressed with organic forecasting tools for teleconnecting patterns. Hats off to Joe Renken for working on these forecasting tools. They work well for pattern replication. 

I appreciate it! I've presented to the AMS Annual Conference on multiple occasions, the NWAS in 2016, and multiple CPCDW annual conferences held by the CPC since 2014.

That being said, NOTHING beats presenting to NOAA when we received 3rd place in the USBR contest as I stood next to great minds like Judah Cohen and people from Woods Hole, Stanford, and Microsoft.

On 1/16/2024 at 6:10 PM, Grace said:

 

Joe Renken knocked it out of the park with the work he did on BSR!

Amazing how far it's come since 2011!!! Not to mention having to make sure that people know it's my work and not a particular company in Central IN.

On 1/16/2024 at 11:12 PM, SNOWBOB11 said:

Do you know if he still does this? I haven’t heard about him since the accuweather days.

The University of Missouri and I have another research project that we are working on. Our last one took changes in the Southern Oscillation Index and created analogs based on multiple criteria from ENSO state to how much the daily SOI changed over a 1 day and 3 day period.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.7775

The next one is another analog project on the same style of changes in the Northern Hemisphere instead of the SOI.

On 1/17/2024 at 12:10 AM, so_whats_happening said:

Im pretty sure he is on the forum just doesn't post all too often (or maybe he does under his region?). His name I wanna say is organicforecasting.

Between my supervisory duties at the Department of Veterans Affairs and the ongoing research with the University of Missouri, I don't get much time for sure. Even my presence on social media has been curtailed to posting selfies with my girlfriend when we get a moment to go out.

On 1/17/2024 at 8:02 AM, Grace said:

He has a website which is where I get all the BSR maps I post. 

http://joe.organicforecasting.com/BsrEar/Bsr/

 

I used to talk with Joe every now & then but have not in sometime. It's been a year I think since we've talked. He's a good dude & has a brilliant mind. I need to reach out soon.

Hey there! I appreciate the kind words and always look forward to talking weather with my friends from the forums that I've attended!

Edited January 18 by Organicforecasting

[Grace]

BSR & EAR show a quick trough & system at the very end of month that could possibly produce some winter weather. 

FEB 6-12: there's the possibility of back door cold fronts on the E coast & could see a coastal system or maybe 2 in that period. 

#BSR

Pattern again looks like it will flip to colder for eastern 1/2 of CONUS after that if that time period in Bering Sea is being modeled correctly. Today's 12z agreed with previous modeling. So while there are run to run variations, this theme is reoccurring more than any alternatives. Time will tell. 

#modeled BSR

Edited January 18 by Grace

[Grace]

1 hour ago, Organicforecasting said:

I appreciate it! I've presented to the AMS Annual Conference on multiple occasions, the NWAS in 2016, and multiple CPCDW annual conferences held by the CPC since 2014.

That being said, NOTHING beats presenting to NOAA when we received 3rd place in the USBR contest as I stood next to great minds like Judah Cohen and people from Woods Hole, Stanford, and Microsoft.

Amazing how far it's come since 2011!!! Not to mention having to make sure that people know it's my work and not a particular company in Central IN.

The University of Missouri and I have another research project that we are working on. Our last one took changes in the Southern Oscillation Index and created analogs based on multiple criteria from ENSO state to how much the daily SOI changed over a 1 day and 3 day period.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.7775

The next one is another analog project on the same style of changes in the Northern Hemisphere instead of the SOI.

Between my supervisory duties at the Department of Veterans Affairs and the ongoing research with the University of Missouri, I don't get much time for sure. Even my presence on social media has been curtailed to posting selfies with my girlfriend when we get a moment to go out.

Hey there! I appreciate the kind words and always look forward to talking weather with my friends from the forums that I've attended!

 

Holy moly! The one & only JD! Good to here from you my friend! 😃

Edited January 18 by Grace

[Grace]

CFS Weeklies improve 2nd week of FEB, then for rest of month

FEB 7-17

FEB 12-22

FEB 17-27

FEB 22-MAR 3

 

This coincides with a dip in the NAO & AO:

 

Euro Weeklies improves over the same time period with not the exact same pattern with blocking a little stronger of Canada. 

 

 

[MaineJay]

On 1/17/2024 at 5:51 PM, Pghsnow said:

Big changes on GFS. Has a big high anchored in Eastern Canada that really mutes the warm up. Hope it is onto something and not drugs. And then this after day 10

It looks different today.  Deterministic runs beyond D7 are just so mercurial.  And please don't take this as me saying Torch! Torch! Torch!  It's the difficulty that individual model runs have at these lead times that I'm pointing to. 

On 1/17/2024 at 8:34 PM, Penn State said:

Indeed.

Any chance that you could post the EPO forecasts every few days? TIA

[RobB]

1/19 0Z NAEFS 

[Grace]

Amazing how much this map changed over the last 10 days. It can happen fast folks. Most of the snow SE of the Michigan to NW Oklahoma line will be wiped out but impressive nonetheless on how fast this changed. Iowa, Nebraska, & parts of Kansas, & the NE are buried. 

Edited January 19 by Grace

[MesoscaleBanding]

[Grace]

It would probably be a good thing to step away for a couple of weeks because it's going to be boring & the forum filled with disgruntled winter lovers saying winter is over. This will also be the period instigators will appear & poke the bear on forums & social media. 😆 

I'm just hoping for a non-tornadic severe weather event or 2 to track so it's not 100% boring. 

Edited January 19 by Grace

[MesoscaleBanding]

1 hour ago, Grace said:

It would probably be a good thing to step away for a couple of weeks because it's going to be boring & the forum filled with disgruntled winter lovers saying winter is over. This will also be the period instigators will appear & poke the bear on forums & social media. 😆 

I'm just hoping for a non-tornadic severe weather event or 2 to track so it's not 100% boring. 

Looking for anything on the ensembles to give a little hope - might be able to work something up at the very end of the month for the eastern 1/3 of the U.S., but man, it otherwise looks bleak for the next 2-3 weeks (at least)

Edited January 19 by MesoscaleBanding

[Hassaywx1223]

15 hours ago, Grace said:

CFS Weeklies improve 2nd week of FEB, then for rest of month

FEB 7-17

FEB 12-22

FEB 17-27

FEB 22-MAR 3

 

This coincides with a dip in the NAO & AO:

 

Euro Weeklies improves over the same time period with not the exact same pattern with blocking a little stronger of Canada. 

 

 

I truly expect this anymore seasons are delayed a month our January thaw is coming about 3 weeks later feels like winter starts 3 or so weeks later and I expect March to by snowier and cold this year but for about the last decade toss out last winters absurdness it has truly just felt like this the science has to be there to back it up soon 

[RobB]

1/19 12z NAEFS 

[1816]

1 hour ago, Hassaywx1223 said:

I truly expect this anymore seasons are delayed a month our January thaw is coming about 3 weeks later feels like winter starts 3 or so weeks later and I expect March to by snowier and cold this year but for about the last decade toss out last winters absurdness it has truly just felt like this the science has to be there to back it up soon 

Groundhog is going to be out of business when there's no such thing as an early spring. 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

6 hours ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

 

19 minutes ago, RobB said:

1/19 12z NAEFS 

 

[Cary67]

LOT met medium range analysis follow up not good:

 

[RobB]

The double ridge /500 height look is wild.  Hell, it is shaped like a PlayStation 5 Controller 😄

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Every MJO forecast is stalling out in 6, even back tracking, before even thinking about heading back through 7 to what would be any eventual move to favorable regions, in to FEB. With this I'm accepting that this "winter" is late fall embedded with very short stents of actual winter over a handful of 3-5 day lengths. If you don't thread your needle during those handful of days then hunker down until the next attempt. I could see by seasons end where through the DEC/JAN/FEB we were only actually provided 4 maybe 5 opportunities. To this point I'd say we've had 2. 

 

Edited January 19 by Ohiobuckeye45

[Grace]

2 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Every MJO forecast is stalling out in 6, even back tracking, before even thinking about heading back through 7 to what would be any eventual move to favorable regions, in to FEB. With this I'm accepting that this "winter" is late fall embedded with very short stents of actual winter over a handful of 3-5 day lengths. If you don't thread your needle during those handful of days then hunker down until the next attempt. I could see by seasons end where through the DEC/JAN/FEB we were only actually provided 4 maybe 5 opportunities. To this point I'd say we've had 2. 

 

 

I wouldn't much stock in MJO forecasts past a week. However, if we go back in COD it will not be a bad thing. El Nino forcing for Feb is most favorable. 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

13 minutes ago, Grace said:

 

I wouldn't much stock in MJO forecasts past a week. However, if we go back in COD it will not be a bad thing. El Nino forcing for Feb is most favorable. 

yeah we don't really have the time left to try and make it all the way back around to 8 at the pace thats being forecasted so might as well try something new, and go THROUGH the COD

Do you have that link that shows the MJO correlation by month/ENSO? I used to have it bookmarked and its gone. It was partially in Italian I believe lol

Edited January 19 by Ohiobuckeye45

[MaineJay]

2 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

yeah we don't really have the time left to try and make it all the way back around to 8 at the pace thats being forecasted so might as well try something new, and go THROUGH the COD

Do you have that link that shows the MJO correlation by month/ENSO? I used to have it bookmarked and its gone. It was partially in Italian I believe lol

https://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/

[SNOWBOB11]

What a difference the 00z GFS looks like compared to the previous runs for the long range. Lots of systems flying around with frozen precipitation. I know it’s one run and better to look at ensembles for LR than globals but it’s good to see non the less.

[RobB]

1/20 0Z NAEFS