Winter 2023-2024 | Discussion and Outlooks

[Cary67]

LOT met medium range analysis:

 

[Hoosier]

On 11/16/2023 at 1:49 PM, Hoosier said:

Here's my final winter call for Chicago (ORD)...

Temps (DJF):  0 to +1

Snowfall (total):  28-35"

Bonus prediction:  2 to 5 days below zero

 

Main change from my initial thought was to go colder.  I don't think that this Nino will reach +2.0 on the ONI, but even if it somehow does, it's not like the super Ninos of 1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16 and so I cautiously lean away from those kind of torchy analogs. Even though my call is for not too far from average temps, I believe that it will be a winter of pretty big fluctuations that will more or less cancel out.  Out of DJF, my guess would be that December is the month that comes in warmest relative to average but I don't have a strong feeling on that one way or another.  

Obviously when it comes to seasonal outlooks, there's typically going to be bust potential in both directions since you put forth the scenario that you feel is most reasonable.  So, a warmer, colder, snowier, or less snowy outcome is all possible and nothing would really shock me.  This winter has some rather unique forecasting challenges and it will be interesting to watch things unfold.

Just a little update as we reach the halfway point of met winter.

First off, it does now appear more likely than not that we will reach 2.0 on the ONI for the months of NDJ.  We'll see in a couple weeks or so.  

December came in much warmer than I envisioned, and that alone may make it tough to get a 0 to +1 finish on temps for DJF.  This month and February are really going to have to come through and it would take both Jan/Feb finishing decently colder than average or one month finishing way colder than average to make it possible.  

As far as snowfall, ORD is at 18.1" (I know downtown has had substantially less though) so just need another 10" to get into range.  I don't think that will be a problem as there are some snow chances coming up and it does not appear to me that we will be seeing a prolonged/weeks long torch coming up.  

Today is day 2 of below 0 temps, with more to come.  From a climo perspective, the window for below 0 temps will essentially close in 6-8 weeks as a March below 0 temp only occurs about once every 9 years on average.  When all is said and done, there is a real possibility of exceeding 5 days below 0, especially if we were to see another very cold spell after this week.   

It took a while, but winter finally came.  

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

LOT met medium range analysis:

 

Ricky ftw

[RobB]

1/15 12Z NAEFS 

[RobB]

1/15 12Z 

[StormfanaticInd]

This is a strong signal for cold coming back. 2014 type look. 

[StormfanaticInd]

The "warmup" next week I believe is going to have some ice issues. By then the ground will be frozen solid with snowpack deep into the south

Edited January 15 by StormfanaticInd

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

The "warmup" next week I believe is going to have some ice issues. By then the ground will be frozen solid with snowpack deep into the south

The setup early next week absolutely screams of one of those where even if the 2m temp is in the mid-upper 30s, the ground may be icy as we'll just be coming out of the deep cold.  

[Ohiobuckeye45]

🤢

[so_whats_happening]

12 hours ago, George Acton said:

Reminds me of 2019-20. The 2nd week of January was cold with nuisance snow in Northern MD, and winter bailed after that. I think the ugly phases of the MJO occurred also at that point. Also, the MJO can get stubborn and stall in a phase before entering the COD.

Interestingly enough we were near record levels in the IOD department that year which is similar to this year, only other year to do that was 1997 (this of course being in the last 30 years for reference). Only difference is that 19/20 was a essentially a failed Nino.

[so_whats_happening]

11 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Just a little update as we reach the halfway point of met winter.

First off, it does now appear more likely than not that we will reach 2.0 on the ONI for the months of NDJ.  We'll see in a couple weeks or so.  

December came in much warmer than I envisioned, and that alone may make it tough to get a 0 to +1 finish on temps for DJF.  This month and February are really going to have to come through and it would take both Jan/Feb finishing decently colder than average or one month finishing way colder than average to make it possible.  

As far as snowfall, ORD is at 18.1" (I know downtown has had substantially less though) so just need another 10" to get into range.  I don't think that will be a problem as there are some snow chances coming up and it does not appear to me that we will be seeing a prolonged/weeks long torch coming up.  

Today is day 2 of below 0 temps, with more to come.  From a climo perspective, the window for below 0 temps will essentially close in 6-8 weeks as a March below 0 temp only occurs about once every 9 years on average.  When all is said and done, there is a real possibility of exceeding 5 days below 0, especially if we were to see another very cold spell after this week.   

It took a while, but winter finally came.  

Im really not sure we attain that 2.0 threshold subsurface is cooling quite a bit and trades are some of the highest we have seen in quite some time. 3.4 has been falling for the last week and daily sits at 1.8 if we continue to cool, which seems likely at this point it is essentially a race against time for that to happen. The last two OISST weekly values have been 1.9 and im sure with this cooling we will be somewhere between 1.7 and 1.8 for the next update.

Honestly though im not too sure why everyone is so interested if we warm .1 in ONI to hit that point. Technically we need 5 months overall to actually be considered super and we are barely going to get by with 2 and the only reason we could potentially attain a trimonthly of 2. 

[Hoosier]

37 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Im really not sure we attain that 2.0 threshold subsurface is cooling quite a bit and trades are some of the highest we have seen in quite some time. 3.4 has been falling for the last week and daily sits at 1.8 if we continue to cool, which seems likely at this point it is essentially a race against time for that to happen. The last two OISST weekly values have been 1.9 and im sure with this cooling we will be somewhere between 1.7 and 1.8 for the next update.

Honestly though im not too sure why everyone is so interested if we warm .1 in ONI to hit that point. Technically we need 5 months overall to actually be considered super and we are barely going to get by with 2 and the only reason we could potentially attain a trimonthly of 2. 

I thought that getting a trimonthly value of 2.0 was good enough to qualify as super.  At least that's how most people seem to define it based on what I've seen.

[so_whats_happening]

39 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I thought that getting a trimonthly value of 2.0 was good enough to qualify as super.  At least that's how most people seem to define it based on what I've seen.

Take 72-73 for example we had 2 trimonthly temps at 2.1 but many indicate this was not technically a super event as 3 consecutive trimonthlies of greater than 2 was not achieved, same thing happened in 65-66. 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16 far exceeded those thresholds and deservedly should be named super Ninos.

I like to use this site for thresholds https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

Going off of CPC site there are no real category thresholds like weak, moderate, strong, super that they mention need to be consecutively done at certain points. The only thing listed is up at the top of the historical data set that mentions and event needs to have 5 consecutive overlapping seasons to meet criteria of Nino/Nina. https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

Again pick your poison on how you wanna interpret it I personally wouldn't label this as a super Nino because we may barely touch 2.0 in one trimonthly, I believe CPC in their discussions mention often this is a strong ENSO event. This is not to take away from the actual event in any manner as this is a strong event but not on the levels of past super events. This is why I go off the idea of 5 consecutive months over a certain point or 3 consecutive trimonthly periods to bin it into whatever section it fits.

Weak (.5-1) Moderate(1.1-1.5) Strong (1.6-2) and Super (2.1+) or

Weak (.5-.9) Moderate (1- 1.4) Strong (1.5-1.9) and Super (2+)

There doesn't seem to be one official way of labeling each category I can't even find it on the BOM (bureau of meterology) Australia site.

Edited January 16 by so_whats_happening

[RobB]

1/16 0Z NAEFS 

[RobB]

1/16 12Z NAEFS:

[MaineJay]

Not the trend we want on the GEFS.

Peaky southern Canada ridge.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

no this is actually starting to look really bad again, if this pans out, then this winter is ending up far more like 22-23 than I would have EVER imagined 

[Pghsnow]

1 hour ago, RobB said:

1/16 12Z NAEFS:

Surface temps aren't as bad as those maps make it look.

[RobB]

1 minute ago, Pghsnow said:

Surface temps aren't as bad as those maps make it look.

Yep, these are just probabilities of above/below normal temps in a given area.

I will say, if it is too warm to snow in any of these, then give me a couple of 60 degree days during it 🙂

[Pghsnow]

32 minutes ago, RobB said:

Yep, these are just probabilities of above/below normal temps in a given area.

I will say, if it is too warm to snow in any of these, then give me a couple of 60 degree days during it 🙂

I am with you . Unfortunately at least for my area, it looks like temps don't get out of the 30's during the thaw.

[RobB]

1/16 12Z:

[Grace]

 

[Grace]

We've been saying for sometime warmth would return end of January. However, early February we return to more normal but not cold per Roundy & I agree. Western ridge, but does not look like really cold.

BSR looks like colder pattern begins returning mid-Feb. BSR nailed the change to colder 2nd week of JAN . 

[George Acton]

Grace, thx for bringing up the BSR. That can be a big mover. Always impressed with organic forecasting tools for teleconnecting patterns. Hats off to Joe Renken for working on these forecasting tools. They work well for pattern replication. 

[Grace]

16 minutes ago, George Acton said:

Grace, thx for bringing up the BSR. That can be a big mover. Always impressed with organic forecasting tools for teleconnecting patterns. Hats off to Joe Renken for working on these forecasting tools. They work well for pattern replication. 

 

Joe Renken knocked it out of the park with the work he did on BSR!