RobB Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1/13 12Z NAEFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 hour ago, MesoscaleBanding said: Hints of a reload at the end of the GEFS with an impressive Arctic air mass building in central Canada... Glad it looks like the cold returns. We’ll just call the short warm up the January thaw for now lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 13 Social Media Crew Share Posted January 13 Somewhere on one of the threads I swear I saw @MaineJay and @Poco mention a retrograding low in the Aleutians.. Is this the one? Would correlate with the first week of February.. and maybe even some good transitions on the teleconnections.. and the MJO.. if all goes according to plan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 hours ago, RobB said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 18z GFS basically only had a 4 day warm up starting on the 22nd. Temps get back cooler around the 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 (edited) 42 minutes ago, SNOWBOB11 said: 18z GFS basically only had a 4 day warm up starting on the 22nd. Temps get back cooler around the 26th. I usually turn to the ensembles over operationals for these types of situation. No torch but so far a weeks worth of 5-10 above average here. As long as there's no big rain soakers I can deal with yet another 3 or 4 days of basically what was the last 1.5 months. Anything longer than that I'm just going to be over it Edited January 14 by Ohiobuckeye45 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 58 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: I usually turn to the ensembles over operationals for these types of situation. No torch but so far a weeks worth of 5-10 above average here. As long as there's no big rain soakers I can deal with yet another 3 or 4 days of basically what was the last 1.5 months. Anything longer than that I'm just going to be over it True. We really don’t need extended warmth now. Hopefully just a pattern reload. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1/14 0Z NAEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Acton Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I guess we will have to see how long the MJO plans to keep its monkey wrench in the mix. I think NOAA will drop their February outlook this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 This really is Christmas 2022 deja vu. Given the MJO lag and high amplitude we could spend weeks above average, no? By the end of the month we're not even back to 7 yet, let alone 8/1/2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arctic Outbreak Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 47 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: This really is Christmas 2022 deja vu. Given the MJO lag and high amplitude we could spend weeks above average, no? By the end of the month we're not even back to 7 yet, let alone 8/1/2 Shades of last winter, just the brief cold burst happened in mid Jan rather than late Dec. Looks like wall to wall warmth aside from this one cold blast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/4/2024 at 6:25 PM, Hoosier said: With all the action coming up, somebody in the Midwest could very well get a couple feet of synoptic snow over the next couple weeks. Just can't pinpoint where. The answer is Iowa. Actually some spots in eastern IA exceeded 30" in the past week, which this map doesn't pick up on. Unfortunate that the OV really got screwed. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1/14 12Z NAEFS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 28 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The answer is Iowa. Actually some spots in eastern IA exceeded 30" in the past week, which this map doesn't pick up on. Unfortunate that the OV really got screwed. They've got a shot or 2 to add before the warm up moves in too. No monsters but another 6" total wouldn't be out of the realm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Hopefully GEFS is on to something as we end the month. Long way off.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: This really is Christmas 2022 deja vu. Given the MJO lag and high amplitude we could spend weeks above average, no? By the end of the month we're not even back to 7 yet, let alone 8/1/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 hour ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Mid February 😬 let's speed that up, the lag would take us deep in to February. I know MJO is only one component of long range but we don't need any additional hindrances 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 MJO - at amplification, is destructively interfering with ENSO state (per Expert Discussions) - could negate typical Nino warm pattern. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 10 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: MJO - at amplification, is destructively interfering with ENSO state (per Expert Discussions) - could negate typical Nino warm pattern. All for it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Now it’s just annoying cold and dry for the next week and a half without any decent moisture and suppression depression. Complete opposite of what December was so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1/15 0Z NAEFS 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Acton Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Reminds me of 2019-20. The 2nd week of January was cold with nuisance snow in Northern MD, and winter bailed after that. I think the ugly phases of the MJO occurred also at that point. Also, the MJO can get stubborn and stall in a phase before entering the COD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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