StormfanaticInd Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, StormfanaticInd said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 (edited) 6 hours ago, MaineJay said: I still expect the pattern to retrograde similar to December. -NAO spike, the ridge moves west to Hudson Bay, and *some* degree of troffing in the Alaska region, resulting in a +EPO. Not trying to be Debbie downer, but until the cold actually arrives, I'm skeptical of it's staying power. I am in the skeptical camp as well with staying power, thats not to undermine next weeks cold which is clearly stealing the headlines, but yes lets get to this weekend when the cold actually arrives and then look at the 8-14 day window to see where we stand. I got mega burned last December thinking that our record shattering cold meant good things to come and we all know how the rest of last winter turned out after the 4-5 day cold bout Edited January 11 by Ohiobuckeye45 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1/11 12Z NAEFS: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 In the longer 12 to 16 day range, the 12Z GEFS has it warming up some.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 12Z Day 8 to 10 500 Height Anomaly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 12 Moderators Share Posted January 12 GFS and EPS are fairly similar in days 1-10 for anomalies. Spoiler EPS warms it up for days 10-15. GFS still keeping us in the icebox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 12 Moderators Share Posted January 12 Did we confirm SSW/pv split and this cold outbreak are related? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 12 Meteorologist Share Posted January 12 15 hours ago, RobB said: In the longer 12 to 16 day range, the 12Z GEFS has it warming up some.. It does look like we will have a brief warming toward the end of the month first few days of February which I think will be fine. With MJO heading towards 7-8 for February the cold and snow should return. 8 hours ago, StretchCT said: Did we confirm SSW/pv split and this cold outbreak are related? This cold outbreak may be due to the early December warming slight PV stretching event. This would be wayyy too quick for this warming event which would impact us around the beginning of February time frame. If we had an actual split occur the pattern would just keep reloading for us instead of a slight warming timeframe at the end of the month to the beginning of February. Shame the one guy left he would be in heaven with the snows of recent and the ensuing cold outbreak in the midwest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1/12 0Z NAEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 27 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: It does look like we will have a brief warming toward the end of the month first few days of February which I think will be fine. With MJO heading towards 7-8 for February the cold and snow should return. This cold outbreak may be due to the early December warming slight PV stretching event. This would be wayyy too quick for this warming event which would impact us around the beginning of February time frame. If we had an actual split occur the pattern would just keep reloading for us instead of a slight warming timeframe at the end of the month to the beginning of February. Shame the one guy left he would be in heaven with the snows of recent and the ensuing cold outbreak in the midwest. Yup Wisconsin has been/is ground zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Already consistent ensembles signs that the 22nd+ begins the warmer weather again, struggle to even get below 32. And before people come at me about averages, the average is the red/blue line haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 12 Meteorologist Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Already consistent ensembles signs that the 22nd+ begins the warmer weather again, struggle to even get below 32. And before people come at me about averages, the average is the red/blue line haha Yea a run through 4-6 in January will do that. Not to say this will go full on torch mode toward the end of the month but the speed of the MJO wave should at least help us not blaze the eastern US. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1/12 12Z NAEFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Here come the reds again 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Since the first of January. I'll be curious to check this out after the cold spell. Assuming I remember 🙂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Day 8 to 10 500 millibar height mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowloverSid Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/11/2024 at 9:33 AM, Arctic Outbreak said: I was rounding 🙂 Still closer to two months until January 16. I think winter is just getting started, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1/13 0z NAEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 3 minutes ago, RobB said: 1/13 0z NAEFS Not great 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arctic Outbreak Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 4 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Not great Wow...what a turnaround. The torch is stubborn this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 (edited) So the eastern U.S. waits for weeks on end to finally get a wintry pattern...andddddd once we finally lock one in, it looks to disintegrate in a little over a week. Fantastic. Hopefully, it's just a brief blip & we get a quick reload. 🙄 Edited January 13 by MesoscaleBanding 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 (edited) Looks like the cold just reloads. That western ridge will be heard from Edited January 13 by StormfanaticInd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cdfarabaugh Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Maybe this absurd month forecast calendar will be right 😆😆😆 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 13 Admin Share Posted January 13 28 minutes ago, Cdfarabaugh said: Maybe this absurd month forecast calendar will be right 😆😆😆 What the heck is the 80° day with snow indicated. 🤡 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Hints of a reload at the end of the GEFS with an impressive Arctic air mass building in central Canada... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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