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Winter 2023-2024 | Discussion and Outlooks


NKYSnowLover

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  • Meteorologist
6 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

Not everyone hates GLCs 😁

I don't necessarily disagree with your analysis, but I think you're making it more complicated than it needs to be. 

The Jan 9-10 storm will lay down a swath of heavy snow that seems likely to act as the primary baroclinic zone for subsequent storms. 

I think it'll be tough to get substantial snowfalls south of the snow cover gradient that sets up over KS/MO/IL ... at least this go around, something similar could come back later this winter when snow cover is more solid across the northern tier: 

image.thumb.png.1acd5aa49999696e9a5e8d4550708166.png

Ha fair whats bad for me is good for another. As for the snow it makes sense what you said the only caveat really is the placement of the -NAO and 50/50 setup that may come from this pattern. Definitely a blast of cold out west and into the midwest though. Im just happy we have an active pattern instead of one storm a week or so.

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17 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

 

FWIW, mid January has the coolest and hardest to beat cold records. Most places that have a long period of record and can get snow have record temps in the double digits below zero this time of year. 

While I wouldn't be surprised to see some cold records for places that have unusually deep snow cover, I would be very surprised by extreme cold across the entire country. Even the image he posted with this hype shows temps just 5-10F below normal almost everywhere except the northern plains.

Finally, a climate fueled pattern of record low temps is just a dumb thing to say ... especially considering all the record warmth and lack of snow during December.

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EPS with three eastern GLC (1/9; 1/13 and 1/17) then nothing but seasonable/cold the next 5 days.  GFS has the 17th system headed off the Delmarva. At least a little hope there. 

 

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Doing some analoging .. nothing to do with the state of the atmosphere or oceans, simply the pattern in measurable snow here in interior PA.

2000-current.  Looking at 0" by December and one early light snow in December, '03-'04 and '01-'02 also had a 1/6ish snow event.  After that, things get different. 

  • 01-02 pretty much went dormant after another light/mod event on 1/19.  February was trash, and March didn't make up for it.
  • 03-04 got active with measurable snow events through late March and ended above average.

Which way will this year go?

First chart is this year .. then 03-04, then 01-02.

png3.png

png1.png

png2.png

Edited by JDClapper
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1 hour ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

I think there's been a misunderstanding of what was requested...

This would be 1 of the most unprecedented January sunny days of all time lol

prateptype_cat-imp.conus (1).png

When Seattle and Portland are dry in January you know something is up. Maybe the apocalypse. 

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  • Meteorologist

@1816 Now this is the El Nino pattern I have been waiting for. Copious amounts of rain/moisture one after another, too bad we have a 500mb pattern that resembles a La Nina though with the lobe of cold into the pac NW. This should at least lay the groundwork for some pretty intense cold come later on if the snow cover across the midwest can hold.

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4 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

End of 12z gefs run. Cold is here to stay for a while folksimage.thumb.png.f57bdde87a4e93b3797a7d45a47a0148.png

As long as that western ridging pattern does not fail us then I would agree we could be in for a sustained cold pattern.

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2 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

@1816 Now this is the El Nino pattern I have been waiting for. Copious amounts of rain/moisture one after another, too bad we have a 500mb pattern that resembles a La Nina though with the lobe of cold into the pac NW. This should at least lay the groundwork for some pretty intense cold come later on if the snow cover across the midwest can hold.

Good maybe the mud will freeze

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