Grace Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Can confirm, they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 This is a year where historically good teleconnections haven't really correlated with good results, but none the less, here you go. The PNA would have the biggest alarm bells for me but I honestly don't know this year 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 JD shared this with me yesterday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1/4 12Z GEFS 11 to 15 Day temp anomalies: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1/4 12Z NAEFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 23 minutes ago, RobB said: 1/4 12Z GEFS 11 to 15 Day temp anomalies: 12 minutes ago, RobB said: 1/4 12Z NAEFS: definitely heading in to a new pattern of moderated cold filtering east, hopefully we can lock it in, there isn't time to waffle it back and forth anymore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Seems like there is a growing signal for a major winterstorm followed by a brutal artic outbreak mid-month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 44 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Seems like there is a growing signal for a major winterstorm followed by a brutal artic outbreak mid-month. It’s too early IMO to be sure. The cold always seems to get pushed back and muted. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 14 minutes ago, SNOWBOB11 said: It’s too early IMO to be sure. The cold always seems to get pushed back and muted. We will see. We are way way overdue. Eventually the other shoe will drop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 31 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: We are way way overdue. Eventually the other shoe will drop Hopefully. I guess I’m just a bit bummed as I saw many GFS runs giving me 12”+ for the system next week just to see the euro go way north and now the GFS has followed. I’m not believing anything models are showing indicating winter weather until it’s a couple days away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 With all the action coming up, somebody in the Midwest could very well get a couple feet of synoptic snow over the next couple weeks. Just can't pinpoint where. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1/5 0Z NAEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherJim Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 17 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: We are way way overdue. Eventually the other shoe will drop Probably in April and May when we want to be warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Looks like we are getting ready to build a glacier in the northern two thirds of the country. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1/5 12Z NAEFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 15 minutes ago, RobB said: 1/5 12Z NAEFS: Best one yet!!!😁😁😁 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1/5 12Z GEFS 11 to 15 Day 2 meter temp anomaly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 ❄️ ☃️ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1/6 0Z NAEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 6 Meteorologist Share Posted January 6 Models are struggling hard with the NAO developments. Euro is the least excited about a -NAO pattern while CMC is gung ho over the idea. GFS has it's own variation sort of in between the two models. I can't believe I agree with it but the evolution of the CMC does make more sense with a rather large Scandi ridge forming in the next 48-72 hours. This usually propagates westward with time, now one thing with this setup it does not always mean we go west Greenland blocking pattern with something like this. The system driving through the region on Tuesday/ Wednesday the hated GLC will help enhance the idea of westward propagation for the Scandi block. This should have a rather large impact on the potential 3rd storm within a week around 13-15th. This one is catching my eye right now and 00z CMC shows the example why, GFS surprisingly had a solution or two fairly similar to the CMC. Will continue to watch how things progress coming up here but certainly active which is a good thing! Truly was a beautiful run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just terrible 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 (edited) 6 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: Models are struggling hard with the NAO developments. Euro is the least excited about a -NAO pattern while CMC is gung ho over the idea. GFS has it's own variation sort of in between the two models. I can't believe I agree with it but the evolution of the CMC does make more sense with a rather large Scandi ridge forming in the next 48-72 hours. This usually propagates westward with time, now one thing with this setup it does not always mean we go west Greenland blocking pattern with something like this. The system driving through the region on Tuesday/ Wednesday the hated GLC will help enhance the idea of westward propagation for the Scandi block. This should have a rather large impact on the potential 3rd storm within a week around 13-15th. This one is catching my eye right now and 00z CMC shows the example why, GFS surprisingly had a solution or two fairly similar to the CMC. Will continue to watch how things progress coming up here but certainly active which is a good thing! Truly was a beautiful run. Not everyone hates GLCs 😁 I don't necessarily disagree with your analysis, but I think you're making it more complicated than it needs to be. The Jan 9-10 storm will lay down a swath of heavy snow that seems likely to act as the primary baroclinic zone for subsequent storms. I think it'll be tough to get substantial snowfalls south of the snow cover gradient that sets up over KS/MO/IL ... at least this go around, something similar could come back later this winter when snow cover is more solid across the northern tier: Edited January 6 by StLweatherjunkie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1/16 12Z NAEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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