Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted September 14, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted September 14, 2023 14 hours ago, SOMOSnow said: 👇 FWIW.... I hate when they cut off their composites to tell a story... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted September 14, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted September 14, 2023 15 hours ago, Grace said: This is about as dead as I've ever seen the winter forum heading into mid-September. No discussion about anything? Yea I haven't personally spent much time looking into winter ideas as much as talking about the ENSO on another forum. The MEI is super low right now even with SST's where they are +1.1C in 4, +1.6C in 3.4, +2.2C in 3 and +2.9C in 1+2. Weekly OISST (runs a little warmer than ERSST which CPC uses for ONI values) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for To me this sounds like ocean and atmosphere are not quite coupling yet and the true overall impact of El Nino isn't being quite felt yet. Now comes the issue when does this peak, how warm does 3.4 get to OND/NDJ timeframe, will the real impacts be on the moderate maybe weak strong side of things when MEI does continue to rise even with SST anomalies maybe getting to 2-2.2 as models still project? Mind you these values have definitely come down in time some are even starting to see under 2C peak for now NDJ which honestly don't think it will be all that bad. This could fair well for the second half of winter (~Jan 15th onward) when the true El Nino response probably takes hold. What does this mean for December, well I mean we might as well go with what has been the norm of the last like 9 Decembers of warmer than average and little to no snow except for the most northern regions and terrain. Doesn't mean it is locked in stone but hard to break away from persistence when the environment around it has not changed much. The one caveat would be increased Hurricane activity just eating up the warm anomalies off the east coast if we can keep that going into October maybe just maybe we start to see some changes. OHC on the decrease again, after a spike to previous highs from back in early June, as subsurface cools a bit. I guess we talk models! I wish I took more frames but started saving it around end of August and have been trying to do every 2 days on a 5 day running mean SST anomaly. Been saving other things from this Nino and have been filling my files with other Nina/Nino information, unfortunately data websites just keep disappearing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted September 14, 2023 Share Posted September 14, 2023 (edited) On 9/14/2023 at 5:58 AM, beaver56 said: Good ole Joe. He loves hyping cold. 😂 Yes, maybe so. Either way, it was interesting information to share re: MJO on a board with very few recent posts. Bring on Winter, cold and snow. Edited September 15, 2023 by SOMOSnow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted September 15, 2023 Share Posted September 15, 2023 IRI Update DJF Temp probabilities JFM Temp Probabilities 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted September 15, 2023 Share Posted September 15, 2023 Interesting discussion 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 17, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 17, 2023 Average first snowfall date. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 👇 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 (edited) 👇 Edited September 17, 2023 by SOMOSnow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 2 hours ago, SOMOSnow said: 👇 Most of this is nonsense, especially any notion of this being a Modoki ESNO event. I don't disagree with the notion that it will be vastly different than last year though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 (edited) El nino still going strong Edited September 20, 2023 by StormfanaticInd 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 I think this winter will be a good one because we are due to 😁 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 Very important thread: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 👇 Some of the info was pretty interesting.... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 I went thru most of the youtubers videos for this coming winter. 3 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 22 minutes ago, Pghsnow said: I went thru most of the youtubers videos for this coming winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 24 minutes ago, Pghsnow said: I went thru most of the youtubers videos for this coming winter. This one is my favorite. It's either a joke or it was made by an actual 5th grader. Can't even see the states. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 NOAA dropped DEC/JAN/FEB outlook today! Surprise, surprise! Nothing like a good climo forecast. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 10 minutes ago, Grace said: NOAA dropped DEC/JAN/FEB outlook today! Surprise, surprise! Nothing like a good climo forecast. Way to go out on a limb there noaa. Real vanguard shit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted September 22, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted September 22, 2023 22 hours ago, Grace said: Very important thread: Yea the subsurface has cooled again not nearly as much as back in July though from 100W-180 the eastern regions definitely took a large hit. Here is the TAO 5 day mean with 2 day intervals. You can see the eastern portions have definitely cooled for now. Im hesitant on the idea of a WWB/KW event in October yet I probably would think second half of the month would be the timeframe if one were to occur given the continual time pattern we have kept so far. End of Feb/March- KW/WWB event started it off. Had minor event around mid april End of May/Early June- another solid WWB/KW event Mid- late August- yet another solid WWB/KW event this one released heat further west in the subsurface and allowed the cooling in 1+2 to occur. So if we go off this timeline of events we are following about 2.5-3months for each larger KW/WWB event so that would put us around mid to late October probably giving us a November peak in monthlies and trimonthlies peaking around OND. Im personally still thinking 1.7 (1.8 if the push of warmth is a bit stronger than expected) OND trimonthly. I originally thought upper end moderate (1.4 trimonthly for SON) back in Spring because it seemed to fit the idea of what could happen but waters are just so warm everywhere that it soon became noticeable it wouldn't stop at that area. The warmth in region 4 still seems to be overwhelming the whole Nino configuration similarish to what it did in 2015 with keeping forcing further west. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted September 22, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted September 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: Yea the subsurface has cooled again not nearly as much as back in July though from 100W-180 the eastern regions definitely took a large hit. Here is the TAO 5 day mean with 2 day intervals. You can see the eastern portions have definitely cooled for now. Im hesitant on the idea of a WWB/KW event in October yet I probably would think second half of the month would be the timeframe if one were to occur given the continual time pattern we have kept so far. End of Feb/March- KW/WWB event started it off. Had minor event around mid april End of May/Early June- another solid WWB/KW event Mid- late August- yet another solid WWB/KW event this one released heat further west in the subsurface and allowed the cooling in 1+2 to occur. So if we go off this timeline of events we are following about 2.5-3months for each larger KW/WWB event so that would put us around mid to late October probably giving us a November peak in monthlies and trimonthlies peaking around OND. Im personally still thinking 1.7 (1.8 if the push of warmth is a bit stronger than expected) OND trimonthly. I originally thought upper end moderate (1.4 trimonthly for SON) back in Spring because it seemed to fit the idea of what could happen but waters are just so warm everywhere that it soon became noticeable it wouldn't stop at that area. The warmth in region 4 still seems to be overwhelming the whole Nino configuration similarish to what it did in 2015 with keeping forcing further west. This is a look at how far west the VP anomalies are in comparison to other strong/super events. The lack of any -VP over time in the northern hemisphere is also something that needs to be watched. I am not exactly sure what it could mean but it is interesting to note given how warm region 3.4 is right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Some hints of winter in the long-range GFS: 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 And how about some early season Nor'Easter eye candy on the long range CFS ❄️ 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted September 23, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted September 23, 2023 No snow in october... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 10 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: No snow in october... It always seems to be a cursed winter when it does. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted September 24, 2023 Share Posted September 24, 2023 (edited) I know one thing, our water table is crazy low right now. First time in 22 years our ponds aren't running in overflows. Edited September 25, 2023 by beaver56 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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