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Winter 2023-2024 | Discussion and Outlooks


NKYSnowLover

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1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Are we really going to go half of January without a low in the teens. This winter is insanity

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My coldest morning was 15 degrees. That was back in November 😬

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Yea I can certainly see why the Canadian and Euro are depicting a stronger wave 2 response on the SPV than the GFS. May be an interesting 2-3 week period if this evolves as so.

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This has definitely been one of those things we have not had very frequent in the last few years,  a solid 50/50 low. The cyclonic wave break action (CWB) will definitely put some pressure on the SPV as we get toward mid month and may allow for that weak wave 2 response. Lets see if there is any more CWB action off the east coast coming up here especially if we can get that ridging potential to show up around Greenland. 

It is nice to see the GFS take a step toward what the Euro and CMC have with a retrograding Scandi high.

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1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Tricky times. Though I really don't take them as serious as I used to.

 

These guys are great with PR and covering their asses. They always leave an out. Always!

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6 hours ago, beaver56 said:

These guys are great with PR and covering their asses. They always leave an out. Always!

Like an ambulance accident....I'll pay attention to them.  Not a fan...

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Quite the cold signal showing up for the Pac NW/ front range and SW, should bleed east in time. Here is a 500mb correlation map for PDO during January as well as 3.4 correlation map for 500mb.

Somehow still feel we are having very back and forth signals with this ENSO event.

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Can't believe that we can't run into something here. -EPO, -NAO. Rex block Pacific, Omega in the Atlantic. Screaming flow,a dash of split. Models will struggle with small scale, even large scale features.  I don't need cold, infact, not that unusual in storms -NAO to be warm up here.

That all said, we can't gin up much in the complete 51 member EPS for my area. For reference, my location would average about 10" over 15 days this time of year.

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Screenshot_20240103-090424.thumb.png.90c5845522d26be762ac3de4a741965f.png

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3 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Can't believe that we can't run into something here. -EPO, -NAO. Rex block Pacific, Omega in the Atlantic. Screaming flow,a dash of split. Models will struggle with small scale, even large scale features.  I don't need cold, infact, not that unusual in storms -NAO to be warm up here.

That all said, we can't gin up much in the complete 51 member EPS for my area. For reference, my location would average about 10" over 15 days this time of year.

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Screenshot_20240103-090424.thumb.png.90c5845522d26be762ac3de4a741965f.png

Not buying this. 

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Mainers are due to start collecting. Yall are too far north to miss all winter.

Last year was a slow start too up there? I remember being worried about heading to NH late Jan, then some snow and that brutal cold front came. Mianacs shes ended up looking like normal buried in snow. 

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The pattern through at least mid-month really looks like it could do some damage and make up for lost time.  Best potential for a fast rally looks like roughly the middle 1/3 of the Plains/Midwest (probably too warm farther south and northern 1/3 could be dealing with some suppression in terms of the bigger action) and then possibly into parts of the Northeast.

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Despite being in a strong Nino, there are definitely some Nina elements to the pattern coming up.  This is a golden window for many of us here as I would not expect this kind of regime to stay around very long, so hopefully it pays off.   

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On 1/2/2024 at 2:50 PM, beaver56 said:

These guys are great with PR and covering their asses. They always leave an out. Always!

 

They have biggest knee jerk reactions to a model run or 2 for a professional outfit that I've ever seen. 

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