RobB Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Are we really going to go half of January without a low in the teens. This winter is insanity My coldest morning was 15 degrees. That was back in November 😬 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1/1 12Z NAEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 1 Meteorologist Share Posted January 1 Yea I can certainly see why the Canadian and Euro are depicting a stronger wave 2 response on the SPV than the GFS. May be an interesting 2-3 week period if this evolves as so. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 2 Meteorologist Share Posted January 2 This has definitely been one of those things we have not had very frequent in the last few years, a solid 50/50 low. The cyclonic wave break action (CWB) will definitely put some pressure on the SPV as we get toward mid month and may allow for that weak wave 2 response. Lets see if there is any more CWB action off the east coast coming up here especially if we can get that ridging potential to show up around Greenland. It is nice to see the GFS take a step toward what the Euro and CMC have with a retrograding Scandi high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1/2 0Z NAEFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 0z Euro still has a clean SPV split at 10mb & 50mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1/2 12Z NAEFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 (edited) Tricky times. Though I really don't take them as serious as I used to. Edited January 2 by StormfanaticInd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said: Tricky times. Though I really don't take them as serious as I used to. These guys are great with PR and covering their asses. They always leave an out. Always! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: Tricky times. Though I really don't take them as serious as I used to. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6 hours ago, beaver56 said: These guys are great with PR and covering their asses. They always leave an out. Always! Like an ambulance accident....I'll pay attention to them. Not a fan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1/3 0Z NAEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 3 Meteorologist Share Posted January 3 Quite the cold signal showing up for the Pac NW/ front range and SW, should bleed east in time. Here is a 500mb correlation map for PDO during January as well as 3.4 correlation map for 500mb. Somehow still feel we are having very back and forth signals with this ENSO event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 3 Admin Share Posted January 3 Can't believe that we can't run into something here. -EPO, -NAO. Rex block Pacific, Omega in the Atlantic. Screaming flow,a dash of split. Models will struggle with small scale, even large scale features. I don't need cold, infact, not that unusual in storms -NAO to be warm up here. That all said, we can't gin up much in the complete 51 member EPS for my area. For reference, my location would average about 10" over 15 days this time of year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Can't believe that we can't run into something here. -EPO, -NAO. Rex block Pacific, Omega in the Atlantic. Screaming flow,a dash of split. Models will struggle with small scale, even large scale features. I don't need cold, infact, not that unusual in storms -NAO to be warm up here. That all said, we can't gin up much in the complete 51 member EPS for my area. For reference, my location would average about 10" over 15 days this time of year. Not buying this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Mainers are due to start collecting. Yall are too far north to miss all winter. Last year was a slow start too up there? I remember being worried about heading to NH late Jan, then some snow and that brutal cold front came. Mianacs shes ended up looking like normal buried in snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 The pattern through at least mid-month really looks like it could do some damage and make up for lost time. Best potential for a fast rally looks like roughly the middle 1/3 of the Plains/Midwest (probably too warm farther south and northern 1/3 could be dealing with some suppression in terms of the bigger action) and then possibly into parts of the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1/3 12Z NAEFS: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Even though things appear to changing for the better I can't help but think why is it so hard to get snow these days. Seems like something has changed in the climate 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 20 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Not bad Very stormy signals in the days ahead. Hopefully IND can cash in at least once or twice. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 11 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Very stormy signals in the days ahead. Hopefully IND can cash in at least once or twice. I hope so. We are long overdue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Despite being in a strong Nino, there are definitely some Nina elements to the pattern coming up. This is a golden window for many of us here as I would not expect this kind of regime to stay around very long, so hopefully it pays off. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1/4 0Z NAEFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 On 1/2/2024 at 2:50 PM, beaver56 said: These guys are great with PR and covering their asses. They always leave an out. Always! They have biggest knee jerk reactions to a model run or 2 for a professional outfit that I've ever seen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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