StLweatherjunkie Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Hello winter, we've missed you 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 0z EPS 11-15 MJO forecast not all that different from JAN, 2010. JAN, 2010 the block carrying over from DEC relaxed all but the first few days. At this point a better block for JAN is showing up through mid-month as seen above verses JAN, 2010 (Late DEC & FEB were best -NAO blocks that winter). PNA had recovered a bit to more neutral in 2010,not so much now. So better -NAO block but stronger -PNA. Pattern may be pretty good for everyone west of APPS for the larger part. Strong cold shots possible in heartland. East of Apps still has a shot of winter weather with any secondary SLP's on the southern end of cold fronts. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Man things are about to ramp up real quick it looks like some of the Mets hit the El Niño right on the head I’m ready 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 12 minutes ago, Hassaywx1223 said: Man things are about to ramp up real quick it looks like some of the Mets hit the El Niño right on the head I’m ready The same way things were looking bland a few days ago then shifted to active is the same way they can shift back or end up with unfavourable storm tracks so I’m going to wait until the systems and cold are a few days out before really believing anything. The models have been too all over the place (not unexpected) to lock anything in. Having said that it’s great to see an active pattern showing up. But for now still caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 hour ago, SNOWBOB11 said: The same way things were looking bland a few days ago then shifted to active is the same way they can shift back or end up with unfavourable storm tracks so I’m going to wait until the systems and cold are a few days out before really believing anything. The models have been too all over the place (not unexpected) to lock anything in. Having said that it’s great to see an active pattern showing up. But for now still caution. Considering this is for days 10-14, the ensembles have been remarkably consistent with this system. There will be a significant winter storm tracking into the great lakes region on Jan 9th. Where the swath of heaviest falls is still unclear, but it will occur somewhere. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 12/31 12Z NAEFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Monster 12z Euro run for the I-70 corridor up into the Northeast - fingers crossed! 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 31, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted December 31, 2023 Absolutely terrible timing for that early next week system with movers coming and flying out on Wednesday. I'll do my best to wish this storm away towards people who can appreciate this storm better than I would. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 31, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted December 31, 2023 I'm not sure I've seen ensemble means this impressive for my location. Especially the 12z EPS. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 12z Euro has split the SPV at 10mb & 50mb 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 hour ago, Grace said: 12z Euro has split the SPV at 10mb & 50mb This is starting to get really interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 It's been a long time since we have seen an active southern stream with cold air in place in the OV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 18z GEFS has now split at 10mb & 50mb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 (edited) 8 hours ago, MesoscaleBanding said: Monster 12z Euro run for the I-70 corridor up into the Northeast - fingers crossed! I can't recall a storm tracking like that occurring (the infamous bowling ball), at least not with such impressive totals. Not too say it can't or won't happen, but it looks fishy. Still fun to watch the models try to sort it out. It's actually epic how much of the Midwest AND OHV cashes in on that. Edited January 1 by StLweatherjunkie 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 The JAN 9 potential winter storm...the A.I products are closer to the 12z EURO & ironically the BSR correlation. BSR is not 1:1 correlation on systems always but can be close at times. Just noticed A.I. & 12z EPS much closer: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 1 Admin Share Posted January 1 On 11/11/2023 at 6:46 AM, MaineJay said: I feel you, feels "mailed in", but the statistics show climatology generally wins out. Plus winter is like a football game. One or two events can really dictate the outcome. A big storm just missing, or hitting, can really skew snowfall, especially in locations that might average a couple feet. One thing that seems oddly consistent, at least looking from my house, is weekend storms. So my "prediction" is storms in the great plains on Wed-thurs, Midwest on Thur-fri, OHV fri-sat, East coast on Sat-sun. Generally speaking. The weekend storm thing here has pretty much been consistent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1/1 0Z NAEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 1 Admin Share Posted January 1 Concord, NH finished off 2023 as it's warmest year since records began in 1869. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, MaineJay said: Concord, NH finished off 2023 as it's warmest year since records began in 1869. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 50 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: Every Christmas season, we watch this movie way too many times 🙂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 10 minutes ago, RobB said: Every Christmas season, we watch this movie way too many times 🙂 Excellent movie! And so many quotable lines. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 21 hours ago, MesoscaleBanding said: Monster 12z Euro run for the I-70 corridor up into the Northeast - fingers crossed! That reminded me of this one from 2022. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Are we really going to go half of January without a low in the teens. This winter is insanity 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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