Winter 2023-2024 | Discussion and Outlooks

[MaineJay]

As many might know, I put a lot of emphasis on the Hudson Bay.  We haven't been able to anchor a nice trof/vortex there all winter.  The signals are a bit mixed beyond D7, and I wouldn't write off periodic, but transitory, -EPO windows.

  It appeared the models were trying to build a decent +PNA ridge, but looking at the most recent 6z GEFS, it's backed away. Troffing has west of Alaska and near Hudson Bay have turned towards each other (this *could* reverse, so don't take this as explicit endorsement), squashing the western ridge.

 GEFS trend

But the EPO isn't the whole story, the GEFS as well as the EPS (shown below) have a respectable -NAO signal.

I think this does increase the chances of phasing with some split flow.  It certainly increases the likelihood of "overphasing" in operational model runs, especially as lead times increase.

  I wouldn't pay too much attention to the temp forecasts with regards to snow chances. Normal, and even slightly above at times isn't a death kneel this time of year. Besides, without snow on the ground in places that climatology it's *normally* there, are gonna skew higher.  

  So are we firing up the cyclone cannon?  Not necessarily, only  maybe in the sense that we have an active southern jet.  It's getting the northern jet to play that's tough. It's been stubborn to buckle over north American, so there are just fewer opportunities to get that phase, and sometimes we've needed a preceding wave to knock away the warmth first.

 It feels like the follow up waves haven't been spaced right, or just other issues with trof shape/orientation/depth have prevented any second wave getting delivering, in the few opportunities that have present themselves

 Patience can't make up for the weather that's already happened, and there are no guarantees that any "promising period" will dump snow on any of our back yards, but we only get one winter a year, so don't let it getcha too down.  Can't control the weather, but we do have a day in how we react to it.

[MesoscaleBanding]

I like the potential - still out in the long range though

[BuckeyeGal]

1 hour ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

I like the potential - still out in the long range though

I like this period (and beyond). Think up until then we're still dealing with thread-the-needle type situations with marginal temps (not saying we won't get snow, but it'll be more difficult until colder pattern settles in). 

[RobB]

 

[beaver56]

7 hours ago, SnowloverSid said:

It would be 28 years almost to the week after the frigid outbreak of late January/ early February 1996 ( same dates/days of the week as ‘24. Strangely enough, there also were some frigid outbreaks in early 1968, 28 years before that!

How about the one in 94? My hometown had an actual temp of -35 in January of that year. That is off the charts cold for Indiana. 

Edited December 28, 2023 by beaver56

[RobB]

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Still waiting to see anything trackable on models, despite the long range optimism. Essentially going to be 33% finished with what we all know as true winter, let's not kid ourselves.

So if we can turn the corner here before mid January, can still salvage a bit of a "full" winter

[SnowloverSid]

17 minutes ago, beaver56 said:

How about the one in 94? My hometown had an actual temp of -35 in January of that year. That is off the charts cold for Indiana. 

I remember that cold snap: the max on January 19, 1994 in Binghamton, NY was an all time low max of -5, after a minimum of-15. Only one day since has been colder:   Feb. 14, 2016, -18 degrees.

[Cary67]

28 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Still waiting to see anything trackable on models, despite the long range optimism. Essentially going to be 33% finished with what we all know as true winter, let's not kid ourselves.

So if we can turn the corner here before mid January, can still salvage a bit of a "full" winter

Mentally prepared myself for a dud winter in my area. Strong El Ninos climo wise feature below average snowfall for the Western Lakes.On the other hand didn't do well in the La Nina's the last few years either. Given whats unfolded the window of opportunities for this year keeps shrinking. Do think February into early March will have some chances just see that SE of my area. Will be very surprised if I don't end with another sub 30"(maybe even 20") snowfall season. 3rd year in a row. The white stuff does exist though as it just started here. Although only for a brief time..

Edited December 28, 2023 by Cary67

[StretchCT]

10 hours ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

Ridiculous cold - take a close look at this smaller segment. Some -60 anomalies show up in some places😱

Putting actual temps up.  This was the coldest frame I could find.  Darker purple is the 0F line.  Looks like 90% of the Conus is in single digits or lower.

Here's the following run

 

[NWOhioChaser]

Ugh, I honestly don’t give a shit if it’s that cold if there’s no moisture to work with. And by March I’m ready to have warmer temps and more sun. Lower Great Lakes is slowly becoming more bland year round.

Don't mind me, just grumpin.

Edited December 28, 2023 by NWOhioChaser

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Cary67 said:

Mentally prepared myself for a dud winter in my area. Strong El Ninos climo wise feature below average snowfall for the Western Lakes.On the other hand didn't do well in the La Nina's the last few years either. Given whats unfolded the window of opportunities for this year keeps shrinking. Do think February into early March will have some chances just see that SE of my area. Will be very surprised if I don't end with another sub 30"(maybe even 20") snowfall season. 3rd year in a row. The white stuff does exist though as it just started here. Although only for a brief time..

I can't even get that.  

Might get lucky with some lake flakes on Monday though.

[SNOWBOB11]

59 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said:

Ugh, I honestly don’t give a shit if it’s that cold if there’s no moisture to work with. And by March I’m ready to have warmer temps and more sun. Lower Great Lakes is slowly becoming more bland year round.

Don't mind me, just grumpin.

Yea I don’t think you have to worry about it getting that cold. This is the CMC 2M temperature for the end of the first week of January.

 

At this point I’ll wait for it to actually get cold before believing any models.

[NEPAsnow]

the Goofus Fraudulent System is broken, its worse then the ICON

[StretchCT]

Only 4 rain events in December. 4 storms. Way too quiet. 

Next storm on the GFS for me is Jan 9th, 12 days away, other than some sprinkles or flurries. 

 Too quiet. But there's always hr 384

[Ohiobuckeye45]

46 minutes ago, SNOWBOB11 said:

Yea I don’t think you have to worry about it getting that cold. This is the CMC 2M temperature for the end of the first week of January.

 

At this point I’ll wait for it to actually get cold before believing any models.

Ditto the 12Z GFS

[MesoscaleBanding]

Need to see this setup showing up inside of 200 hrs before getting our hopes up, but this looks nice

[TheComet]

3 hours ago, RobB said:

 

Eric Webber has been pretty insistent since day one that winter will not come for the EC until after mid January. I guess he's riding hard the statistics based on Strong/Super El Nin~o's. Will be interesting to see if he ends up being right. If he does, then he was one of the few mets in Twitter that had the right idea. I'm skeptical though, because after years of unscientific observation, once a pattern sets in, it doesn't break for the entire winter. For example the pattern this winter is that models get our hopes up 10 days out, only to dash them away 7 or within days out. I'm looking at you Goofus Fraudulent System. 

[Hoosier]

16 minutes ago, TheComet said:

Eric Webber has been pretty insistent since day one that winter will not come for the EC until after mid January. I guess he's riding hard the statistics based on Strong/Super El Nin~o's. Will be interesting to see if he ends up being right. If he does, then he was one of the few mets in Twitter that had the right idea. I'm skeptical though, because after years of unscientific observation, once a pattern sets in, it doesn't break for the entire winter. For example the pattern this winter is that models get our hopes up 10 days out, only to dash them away 7 or within days out. I'm looking at you Goofus Fraudulent System. 

It's frustrating, but patterns do break.  Lots of examples of it over the years.  What about 2014-15?  Massive reversal from Dec 2014 to Feb 2015.

[TheComet]

Just now, Hoosier said:

It's frustrating, but patterns do break.  Lots of examples of it over the years.  What about 2014-15?  Massive reversal from Dec 2014 to Feb 2015.

True, it'd be foolish if not irresponsible to write off this winter prematurely. 

[RobB]

Uggh

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, RobB said:

Uggh

Although warm in the east, that's a much different look than we've seen in Dec.

I saw somebody elsewhere say that the pattern hasn't changed until they are shoveling snow.  Kind of funny and I kind of get it.  Many of us are results oriented and just want the snow.  A colder pattern than December that is without snow wouldn't really look different.   

[MesoscaleBanding]

11 minutes ago, RobB said:

Uggh

Kind of has the look of the 'dump west, bleed east' that we see all the time though. Also, a few degrees above normal in early/mid January still looks like this (still cold enough for wintry precip for many): 

[RobB]

12/28 12Z NAEFS:

[MesoscaleBanding]

GEFS hinting at 1-2 systems in that Jan. 9-12 time frame with the potential to lay down a swath of wintry precip somewhere in the southern plains/MW/OV/GL region....probably the most promising time frame to keep an eye on that we've had all season so far. Might make a thread out of sheer weather boredom 😴💤