Winter 2023-2024 | Discussion and Outlooks

[so_whats_happening]

5 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Trying to wrap my head around how dry some of the models are.

Most of what is shown on these charts in the east falls in the next 36 hours.

 

Was chatting with someone from work about this. It really could be from the -PDO regime we still have right now. While we have had moisture in large bouts it has been few and far between. I mean we had two nearly month and a half periods of no rain this year which is rather unusual to see in an El Nino year where we typically see more of a wet pattern with more frequency emerge by now.

4 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Is it a split? A displacement? A quick recovery?  How would each one effect the pattern? Snow obsessed minds want to know.

GEFS trend.  Seems to be walking back the split a little bit in recent runs, more of a displacement, leaving it weak.

 

Had a feeling the Atlantic side really has not been our friend with splits over the last couple years, I think the last time was 2019-20 season? We have been getting enormous wave 1 responses on the SPV to induce wintry weather and unfortunately that is not the best way to get ours in the US. Still have time to see what happens but may be a thing where models were too gung ho.

[Psu1313]

I just have to laugh. I made the comment about the 8th through the 12th and the 12z GFS goes off and connects the energy with a game northern stream really early and unloads on parts of the Plains and Midwest. A widespread 8-14 inches and still snowing in the upper midwest. 

[RobB]

12/27 12Z NAEFS:

[NWOhioChaser]

Going to be a verrrry slow trickle down with winter chances if they do decide to come about next month. I do like the return to more average temperatures here next week but it’ll be pointless IMO if we don’t get some moisture to work with. I know we have to start somewhere. Like the fact that ground temps are still too warm. Second fall continues. 

I just don’t see anything promising in the mid to long range. Might just have a couple weeks window come February. 

Edited December 27, 2023 by NWOhioChaser

[StormfanaticInd]

That mjo could unfortunately start working against us the second half of January. Looks like we are poised to go into phases 4,5, and 6

[StormfanaticInd]

2 hours ago, Psu1313 said:

I just have to laugh. I made the comment about the 8th through the 12th and the 12z GFS goes off and connects the energy with a game northern stream really early and unloads on parts of the Plains and Midwest. A widespread 8-14 inches and still snowing in the upper midwest. 

Looks more like a la nina type storm 

[SNOWBOB11]

12z GFS was probably the warmest run I’ve seen in a while for early to mid January. Might be just a model blip but I don’t know. Plus the fact there’s no real storms to track at the moment it’s not great to be a winter weather person right now. Doesn't take much to change the look of things so we’ll see.

[adurb44]

3 minutes ago, SNOWBOB11 said:

12z GFS was probably the warmest run I’ve seen in a while for early to mid January. Might be just a model blip but I don’t know. Plus the fact there’s no real storms to track at the moment it’s not great to be a winter weather person right now. Doesn't take much to change the look of things so we’ll see.

I'm feeling the rug being pulled. This really sucks. Feel terrible for the ski resorts around here that have hardly been able to make any snow. A wasted Christmas break for them after a garbage 2022/2023. 

[adurb44]

5 minutes ago, SNOWBOB11 said:

12z GFS was probably the warmest run I’ve seen in a while for early to mid January. Might be just a model blip but I don’t know. Plus the fact there’s no real storms to track at the moment it’s not great to be a winter weather person right now. Doesn't take much to change the look of things so we’ll see.

Wow, you're not kidding. I went back and looked at the 06z and what a difference. Hoping it isn't a trend. 

[SNOWBOB11]

32 minutes ago, adurb44 said:

Wow, you're not kidding. I went back and looked at the 06z and what a difference. Hoping it isn't a trend. 

Yea not great. I think models are in a bit of a crazy period right now so not sure it really matters much but we’ve already lost a month of winter and the SSW doesn’t look as sure a thing anymore right now it’s just wait and see.

[SNOWBOB11]

I really do try to not be a whiner and complain about the lack of winter weather but man. The 18z GFS is coming in warm too. And at the time that was supposed to be on the colder side. Not sure what it’s seeing or why the cold seems to be diminishing but at this point I think I need a break from watching the models. This is just brutal.

I think without the snow pack to the north the south is always going to struggle.

[Hoosier]

This December is going to end up being impressively mild, especially with northward extent from the Ohio River.  Certainly considerably warmer than I figured it would be.  Part of the problem is that the shift to a cooler regime is coming later... I was thinking by Dec 20-25, but instead, that period has put up some massive positive daily temp departures to pad what was already a warm month.

[Pghsnow]

CFS like the Jan 12 time frame too. 

[Pghsnow]

CFS looks impressive starting 2nd week Jan through the whole month. One of the best snow cover maps I have seen on CFS. This covers most of Jan. 

[Hoosier]

Can I just go ahead and lock in the 18z GFS.

[StormfanaticInd]

Just now, Pghsnow said:

CFS like the Jan 12 time frame too. 

😲

[StormfanaticInd]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Can I just go ahead and lock in the 18z GFS.

That would be nice. Too bad it's 300+ hrs out 😭😭😭

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, Pghsnow said:

CFS like the Jan 12 time frame too. 

Given the overall lack of winter so far and no big storm prospects in the nearer term, that storm around the 10th-12th has very high stakes. 

[Psu1313]

3 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Looks more like a la nina type storm 

Definitely not what I envision if this actually comes together. Just found it hilarious that I made the comment and 30 minutes later the GFS decides to actually have the streams play. I actually find this to be very encouraging as it would seem to imply there is a chance this could come together. 

[BuckeyeGal]

Pattern change = model ping pong. I know it’s been depressing, but hang in there gang.

[Grace]

4 hours ago, Pghsnow said:

CFS looks impressive starting 2nd week Jan through the whole month. One of the best snow cover maps I have seen on CFS. This covers most of Jan. 

 

Coldest CFS run I've ever seen. Good grief!

 

[MesoscaleBanding]

11 minutes ago, Grace said:

 

Coldest CFS run I've ever seen. Good grief!

 

Ridiculous cold - take a close look at this smaller segment. Some -60 anomalies show up in some places😱

[Cdfarabaugh]

1 hour ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

Ridiculous cold - take a close look at this smaller segment. Some -60 anomalies show up in some places😱

God forbid that came to fruition.  That would be a mass casualty event without one doubt.  The electric/gas supply grid would catastrophically fail

[SnowloverSid]

39 minutes ago, Cdfarabaugh said:

God forbid that came to fruition.  That would be a mass casualty event without one doubt.  The electric/gas supply grid would catastrophically fail

It would be 28 years almost to the week after the frigid outbreak of late January/ early February 1996 ( same dates/days of the week as ‘24. Strangely enough, there also were some frigid outbreaks in early 1968, 28 years before that!

[RobB]

12/28 0Z NAEFS