Winter 2023-2024 | Discussion and Outlooks

[RobB]

 

[Pghsnow]

 

[beaver56]

1 hour ago, RobB said:

 

Be pissed because it will push all the snow south and east of me. 😜

[Grace]

In other news:

 

 

[Grace]

Not sure what happened here but e30 needs to be served, lol 😆 

 

[RobB]

2 hours ago, Grace said:

In other news:

 

 

Pretty wild.  Be nice if he'd post the data without inputting his little snark with the whole climate politic. Either side of the issue like to cherry pick data that supports him/her....

 

Thanks for the post, Grace!

[Grace]

3 hours ago, RobB said:

Pretty wild.  Be nice if he'd post the data without inputting his little snark with the whole climate politic. Either side of the issue like to cherry pick data that supports him/her....

 

Thanks for the post, Grace!

 

Chris is a MET student & believes the science of AGW. He does not however, believe it's a crisis & has a massive data compilation & points out the false narratives. He's one of many that is NOT for false narratives or statements about data. A lot of stuff promoted in media is not even supported by the IPCC reports. 

There's 2 portions to the IPCC report. The first is pure science & is produced by scientists from around the world. It's a massive amount of material & it is really good! 

Then there is a summary section that is produced by policy makers to influence policy decisions. This section is absolute trash & is where politics & agendas, NOT science, rules the day. Unfortunately nearly 100% of press releases come from this trashy summary which sensationalizes everything. Several scientists who have & do contribute to the scientific literature portion have complained & pointed this out to no avail. 

Chris knows this & like a good science lover seeks to point out the bologna when he can.

Edited December 27, 2023 by Grace

[RobB]

2 minutes ago, Grace said:

 

Chris is a MET student & believes the science of AGW. He does not however, believe it's a crisis & has a massive data compilation & points out the false narratives. He's one of many that is NOT for false narratives or statements about data. A lot of stuff promoted in media is not even supported by the IPCC reports. 

There's 2 portions to the IPCC report. The first is pure science & is produced by scientists around the world. It's a massive amount of material & it is really good! 

Then there is a summary section that is produced by police makers to influence policy decisions. This section is absolute trash & is where politics & agendas, NOT science, rules the day. Unfortunately nearly 100% of press releases come from this trashy summary which sensationalizes everything. Several scientists who have & do contribute to the scientific literature portion have complained & pointed this out to no avail. 

Chris knows this & like a good science lover seeks to point out the bologna when he's can.

I get that.  I am just one who wants to see the amazing acts of nature, reported on, without bringing in the subject of Climate Change either way.  I agree, we can not have a major meteorological event without the media subjecting one with climate change rhetoric. Quite annoying....

 

Give me event details and move on.....🍻

[NEPAsnow]

 

[Grace]

Now this is a -NAO block 😃

 

[Grace]

12z GEFS, from Monday

 

0z tonight

[MaineJay]

Haven't been below freezing in 72 hours, looks like it won't go below 32° for about 72 hours.  Can't blame the sun angle either 

Can't even make snow at the ski areas right now.

We are into our 4th "mud season" already. At this point I don't even care about snow, just get the damn ground frozen, infrastructure is taking a beating.  My town has had to fix several roads multiple times this year from some periodic prolific precipitation events.

 Don't accidentally go off the shoulder around here, could be fateful.

[RobB]

12/27 0Z NAEFS 

[JDClapper]

57 minutes ago, RobB said:

12/27 0Z NAEFS 

"Near Normal" is gonna feel friggin cold for awhile!

 

48 at 6:40am right now.

Edited December 27, 2023 by JDClapper

[MaineJay]

Trying to wrap my head around how dry some of the models are.

Most of what is shown on these charts in the east falls in the next 36 hours.

 

[MaineJay]

Is it a split? A displacement? A quick recovery?  How would each one effect the pattern? Snow obsessed minds want to know.

GEFS trend.  Seems to be walking back the split a little bit in recent runs, more of a displacement, leaving it weak.

 

[Grace]

11 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Is it a split? A displacement? A quick recovery?  How would each one effect the pattern? Snow obsessed minds want to know.

GEFS trend.  Seems to be walking back the split a little bit in recent runs, more of a displacement, leaving it weak.

 

 

Yea, I've noticed that as well, even the OP. Simon Lee is still gun ho though on a split (as of yesterday). Supposedly GEFS has the weakest warming but still achieves reversal for several members. I guess the good news is that all models have the SPV severely weakened. 

Edited December 27, 2023 by Grace

[Grace]

Simon also points out that the SPV has taken a lot of hits since November & is standing on one leg. So whatever event takes place is certainly going to put the hurt on it. May not be a knock out punch but will may achieve the objective regardless. Read entire thread. 

BTW, anyone have access to what the 0z EPS members do with stratosphere?

Edited December 27, 2023 by Grace

[Pghsnow]

 

[Grace]

8 minutes ago, Pghsnow said:

 

 

Thanks!

I should have clarified I was referring to the 101 member that's run every 0z now. But I was told that data is not released until this afternoon. 

Either way this is helpful & I expect 101 member run to be similar. 

[SNOWBOB11]

Chilly

[BuckeyeGal]

Tried to warn people that when the actual cold of winter gets here.. it's going to feel brutal given how warm we've been. And I don't even want to think about the first snow that sticks on the roads. I may just try to not drive that day, lol.

[Psu1313]

44 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said:

Tried to warn people that when the actual cold of winter gets here.. it's going to feel brutal given how warm we've been. And I don't even want to think about the first snow that sticks on the roads. I may just try to not drive that day, lol.

I think those are two different items. After tomorrow, we should get about 2 weeks of near average temps (with a day or two here and there that is warm or colder than normal but not by the factors that we have been dealing with) so our bodies should be more accustomed to the cold coming up.

As far as the SSW or displacement, it's still a wait and see game and there is no guarantee the eastern or central US is the target. We are due, overdue if you will, but I'm still not sure. I'm really keeping an eye on Alaska and the PNA to really give me hope. If we don't have high pressure over Alaska, the jet is just going to continue to overrun the US with mild air. If I'm truly being honest with myself and everyone else, I think the most likely opportunity lies beyond January 20th. There might be an opportunity there for everything to line up well if we get the displacement or SSW which would normally have an approximate 10 day correlation to impacts if they are going to happen, back the ridge up into Alaska, and have MJO cycle through.

To the shorter long term, I do think there is an opportunity around the 7th which there is a thread for already and then a sneaky good potential, longshot opportunity somewhere between the 8th and the 12th depending on when the southwestern shortwave ejects and if there is interaction to be had with the north. I like this because it is the first time I can really see a potential interaction between the two streams though that is too far out to say if that is even a real possibility at the moment. 

[BuckeyeGal]

3 minutes ago, Psu1313 said:

I think those are two different items. After tomorrow, we should get about 2 weeks of near average temps (with a day or two here and there that is warm or colder than normal but not by the factors that we have been dealing with) so our bodies should be more accustomed to the cold coming up.

As far as the SSW or displacement, it's still a wait and see game and there is no guarantee the eastern or central US is the target. We are due, overdue if you will, but I'm still not sure. I'm really keeping an eye on Alaska and the PNA to really give me hope. If we don't have high pressure over Alaska, the jet is just going to continue to overrun the US with mild air. If I'm truly being honest with myself and everyone else, I think the most likely opportunity lies beyond January 20th. There might be an opportunity there for everything to line up well if we get the displacement or SSW which would normally have an approximate 10 day correlation to impacts if they are going to happen, back the ridge up into Alaska, and have MJO cycle through.

To the shorter long term, I do think there is an opportunity around the 7th which there is a thread for already and then a sneaky good potential, longshot opportunity somewhere between the 8th and the 12th depending on when the southwestern shortwave ejects and if there is interaction to be had with the north. I like this because it is the first time I can really see a potential interaction between the two streams though that is too far out to say if that is even a real possibility at the moment. 

Lovely in-depth analysis. I was speaking in more vague terms. 😊 Even the near-normal temps are going to catch people off-guard. My husband went running in shorts yesterday. And ANY snow on the roads where I am causes panic the first time of the season (which we haven’t seen yet). Many people around here have already dismissed winter as not happening.

[Psu1313]

4 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said:

Lovely in-depth analysis. I was speaking in more vague terms. 😊 Even the near-normal temps are going to catch people off-guard. My husband went running in shorts yesterday. And ANY snow on the roads where I am causes panic the first time of the season (which we haven’t seen yet). Many people around here have already dismissed winter as not happening.

Your husband and I think alike. I was wearing shorts on Christmas working out. I've enjoyed these last couple of days way more than I care to admit, but I do prefer the warm anomalies to cold and gray or cool and rain. Change either of those to snow, and I'll change my mind, but the seemingly endless gray periods around the lakes are so different than what I grew up with or lived with in DC.  If only there was a place where you received feet of snow over 2 months and the rest of the year was in the 80's to swim...hmmmmmmm

Totally understand your point as putting on gloves again starting Friday evening to walk the dog will definitely be annoying. 😛 I think the driving thing is an everywhere item, though in DC, it wasn't just the first snow, it was every snow!