Winter 2023-2024 | Discussion and Outlooks

[TheComet]

10 hours ago, Grace said:

Well...

GEFS 50mb Control

GEFS 10mb Control

 

GEFS 50mb

 

GEFS 10mb

 

EXPLANATION: Real good! 😀

Am I seeing a split of the SPV?

[RobB]

12/23 0Z NAEFS 

[StormfanaticInd]

Storm signal is decent for first week of January 

[Grace]

9 hours ago, TheComet said:

Am I seeing a split of the SPV?

 

Somewhat....the big take away is a massively distressed SPV.

Now the 6z is a true split. But we can't put high confidence in that scenario until it's starts getting under 10 days, then confidence grows. 

 

[Grace]

3 minutes ago, Grace said:

 

Somewhat....the big take away is a massively distressed SPV.

Now the 6z is a true split. But we can't put high confidence in that scenario until it's starts getting under 10 days, then confidence grows. 

 

 

And EPS members...over 50% have major SSW defined by u-wind reversal:

[StretchCT]

EPS anomaly last 5 days of run for temp and the forecast qpf.

[SOMOSnow]

0Z Euro ensemble day 5 to 15 temp anomalies and 0Z Canadian ensemble day 6 to 16 temp anomalies. 

[SOMOSnow]

0Z Euro main run day 5 to 10 temp anomalies. 

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, Grace said:

 

Somewhat....the big take away is a massively distressed SPV.

Now the 6z is a true split. But we can't put high confidence in that scenario until it's starts getting under 10 days, then confidence grows. 

 

That would be one beautiful split! Hope we get to see something of that nature come up.

[MesoscaleBanding]

Beautiful setup at the end of the 12z GFS...

Let me know when that is still showing up inside of 150 hours though🤔

Edited December 23, 2023 by MesoscaleBanding

[SOMOSnow]

GIF

12Z Canadian ensemble temp anomalies from December 28 through end of run. 

 

Edited December 23, 2023 by SOMOSnow

[StormfanaticInd]

20 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said:

GIF

12Z Canadian ensemble temp anomalies from December 28 through end of run. 

 

Coast to coast cold! 

[SOMOSnow]

 

[SOMOSnow]

[SOMOSnow]

[RobB]

12/23 12Z NAEFS 

[BoroBuckeye]

20 minutes ago, RobB said:

12/23 12Z NAEFS 

The turntables are turning!

[Ohiobuckeye45]

2 hours ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

Beautiful setup at the end of the 12z GFS...

Let me know when that is still showing up inside of 150 hours though🤔

 

[Hassaywx1223]

I just came in here to say merry Christmas from the models today! 🎁🎅☃️❄️😀

[Grace]

Read the ENTIRE tread. This is an update. EPS members with SSW increase to 29 of 51. GEPS 19 of 20 members. 

 

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

https://www.facebook.com/100044257066453/posts/pfbid0385uR3LxaaSw9vR3QdKoatrXXfn11fRbprqS3sZa64JJ6r1aw8NhGnchSFV53iamBl/?mibextid=9R9pXO

[RobB]

3 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

https://www.facebook.com/100044257066453/posts/pfbid0385uR3LxaaSw9vR3QdKoatrXXfn11fRbprqS3sZa64JJ6r1aw8NhGnchSFV53iamBl/?mibextid=9R9pXO

I was just about to post. For those who don't want to click link :

 

 

Could snow and winter lovers finally get a chance to enjoy the season? (WARNING: this is a long and detailed post, are you ready?)

Several long-range indicators are now showing potential for a significant change in our weather over much of the United States. These indicators are complicated, so let's see if I can explain it without any eyes glazing over. Haha...

First thing we are seeing are the signs of a major warming event in the arctic circle which encompasses the North Pole. Now, this warming is occurring very high up in the sky.

There are two major layers of the atmosphere that meteorologists pay attention to. There is the one where most of our weather occurs (storms, rain, snow, etc.,) which is the troposphere. It ranges from about 5 to 10 miles above the surface.  There is also the stratosphere on top of that, which ranges from about 10 to 30 miles above the ground. We're talking higher than most aircraft can fly. 

In both the troposphere and the stratosphere, there are rivers of air the flow around our planet at 100mph or more. One of those rivers of air that is in our troposphere is called the Polar Vortex. I'm sure you've heard of it over the last 10 or so as it's gotten a lot more attention. 

For most of the late fall and now the first few days of winter, we've seen the Polar Vortex quite strong. This actually keeps the coldest air locked in the middle. This typically means the arctic air stays well to our north, and here in Ohio we typically get milder air that flows off the Pacific Ocean.

Our winter and snow lovers would want a much weaker Polar Vortex. This would allow the arctic air to "seep" south. Although where that air moves south is somewhat hard to know.

SO - what do we need to weaken the Polar Vortex? Well, one thing that would do it would be a sudden warming of the stratospheric air. This can occur when upward moving, warmer air gets lifted into the stratosphere, where the vortex is located. We call this a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event, or SSW. Over time, typically 1 to 3 weeks, the Polar Vortex will begin to weaken, allowing colder air to start to spill south away from the poles. In our case, the North Pole. (There is one around the South Pole too).

Well - we are seeing signs in our modeling that suggests this may be about to occur. If these primary models we use (ECMWF, GFS) are correct, we may be soon loading our weather pattern with some MUCH colder and potentially wintry weather! This would likely occur was we approach the New Year or within the first 10 days of 2024. Again, this is IF (big IF) the models are correct. Sometimes, modeling can have trouble forecasting a SSW event. The models can flip-flop on us. But so far, they've remained pretty consistent over the last several days. 

If you are ready for wintry weather, get ready! Your chances to get your wishes are increasing! It is important to note though that we are in an El Nino pattern (see previous posts or search El Nino on our Spectrum News 1 website for what this is). While El Nino typically cannot overpower arctic air when it starts heading south, it may shorten the duration it stays bitter and wintry. It is just too early to know for sure. 

We are about to enter January and of course, it is SUPPOSED to be cold. But given such an incredibly mild late fall, the upcoming pattern may be a bit of a shock to our systems! Stay tuned!

 

[MaineJay]

[TheBlizzardOf1978]

58 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

It will change!

[Grace]