Winter 2023-2024 | Discussion and Outlooks

[Grace]

2 hours ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

A backloaded winter? Color me shocked

Well, to be fair El Nino winters are historically backloaded.

Last winter had the coldest weather in the 3rd-4th week of December.

[so_whats_happening]

On 8/31/2023 at 8:52 PM, Grace said:

 

And this is a year that we really need the El Nino to dictate the pattern. When it relaxes a pattern that looks Nina-ish takes place like September. 

Yea I honestly hope this can benefit us this winter. Overall even with a ENSO region sitting around +1.4-1.5 currently and a trimonthly ONI of 1.1 (JJA) our MEI is still rather low ~+0.6 so the atmosphere and ocean are not quite linking up in the way we would want but this could be a good thing with projections of some models still showing +2-2.2 range it could benefit us as along as things don't couple too crazy.

I personally am in the ball park we have a trimonthly of +1.7 OND with November being the warmest month of around +1.9, +1.6 October, +1.7 December and +1.6 January so also expecting a slow fade. 

It does look at though region 1+2 are cooling off now from those near record or record temps from about March until Early August. Region 3 also may have peaked but should know better in the next week or two. Lag time for it to work westward so November peak seems reasonable. This is all barring no major changes to how things evolve of course if we have an exceptionally strong WWB and KW in tandem then the game changes up a little but will have to wait and see.

[Grace]

 

[so_whats_happening]

3 minutes ago, Grace said:

 

Lol thats wild after hearing so many times these two winters are not feasible now they seem to have traction with folks. Always fun to watch.

[Grace]

European Seasonal Updated...Jan/Feb look potentially stellar.

DEC

 

JAN

 

FEB

 

DEC SST's

 

JAN SST's

 

FEB SST's

[Grace]

5 strong El Ninos going back to 1950:

1957-58

1965-66

1972-73

1987-88

1991-92

 

1991-92 was the outlier of the 4 & was a flame thrower:

 

1957-58 & 1987-88 were very remarkably cold & snowy:

 

Jan & Feb of those 2 winters especially cold & snowy:

 

1965-66 & 1972-73 had periods of warmth but periods of cold as well, DJF:

 

But JAN & FEB not terrible:

 

Here is what DJF looked like with the 4 years minus the 1 outlier torch 1991-92:

 

JAN & FEB with those years even better:

 

 

Edited September 5, 2023 by Grace

[SNOWBOB11]

January and February look good on the European models. I assume it’s going with the El Niño being the main driving force for the pattern instead of something else?

[Grace]

All El Ninos after a triple La Nina. There are 4:

1957-58: strong

1976-77: weak

1986-87: moderate 

2002-03: moderate 

 

All 4 were cold winters in the east except 1986-87. It was not terrible except in the upper Midwest. Had some cold periods in the east but overall milder than the other 4.

1957-58 is the only strong El Nino of the 4 & is probably one of the top analogs. However, 86-87 & 02-03 were not far below strong threshold. 

[MainelySnow]

On 8/30/2023 at 12:16 PM, beaver56 said:

Ironic you bring that up.  We have a ton of pine cones on our trees this year.  Some trees look like they have hundreds.  I have never seen that before at our farm and never heard that before.  Thanks for sharing the "old timer" knowledge that was shared with you.

Interesting that you have loaded trees as well.  I've often wondered if it is the same outside of Maine.  Our trees are the same here- look just like they do after a really heavy snowfall.  I'm going to need a helmet for my daily hike once they start to let go!

[MesoscaleBanding]

1 hour ago, MainelySnow said:

Interesting that you have loaded trees as well.  I've often wondered if it is the same outside of Maine.  Our trees are the same here- look just like they do after a really heavy snowfall.  I'm going to need a helmet for my daily hike once they start to let go!

Don't know if it means a thing at all, but black walnut trees in my area of central Ohio are absolutely loaded with walnuts (probably twice as many as usual on the 3 trees around my property). 

Edited September 6, 2023 by MesoscaleBanding

[MainelySnow]

3 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

Don't know if it means a thing at all, but black walnut trees in my area of central Ohio are absolutely loaded with walnuts (probably twice as many as usual on the 3 trees around my property. 

Well we've got a good chance to put the anecdotal old-timers wisdom to the test this winter. Our oaks are loaded with acorns as well.  If nothing else, I'd like to have my grandfathers' prognostications do better than accuweather!

[so_whats_happening]

38 minutes ago, Grace said:

All El Ninos after a triple La Nina. There are 4:

1957-58: strong

1976-77: weak

1986-87: moderate 

2002-03: moderate 

 

All 4 were cold winters in the east except 1986-87. It was not terrible except in the upper Midwest. Had some cold periods in the east but overall milder than the other 4.

1957-58 is the only strong El Nino of the 4 & is probably one of the top analogs. However, 86-87 & 02-03 were not far below strong threshold. 

Remember though each of these had a grace period in between them of neutral state for a winter before it went to warm ENSO status beside 76-77.

This year we have gone directly from Nina to Nino no period of neutral status in between for more than a month or two versus the year difference in those years you listed except for 76-77.

The only years with a multiple year Nina to quick change of El Nino were 1972-73 (2 year la nina before), 1976-77 (3 year la nina before), and 2009-10 ( 2 year La Nina before). You could also potentially add 2018-19 (had some weak Nina action for 2 years)

1972-73: Super

1976-77: Weak

2009-10: Strong

2018-19: Weak

Given we are already above weak levels from similar actions there are only 2 to go off of with similar changes with both 1972-73 and 2009-10 being -PDO years as well. Very very small chance at this point we hit peak ENSO state for this year.

Not a bad look! even including those two weak years still not bad.

[Grace]

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

Remember though each of these had a grace period in between them of neutral state for a winter before it went to warm ENSO status beside 76-77.

This year we have gone directly from Nina to Nino no period of neutral status in between for more than a month or two versus the year difference in those years you listed except for 76-77.

The only years with a multiple year Nina to quick change of El Nino were 1972-73 (2 year la nina before), 1976-77 (3 year la nina before), and 2009-10 ( 2 year La Nina before). You could also potentially add 2018-19 (had some weak Nina action for 2 years)

1972-73: Super

1976-77: Weak

2009-10: Strong

2018-19: Weak

Given we are already above weak levels from similar actions there are only 2 to go off of with similar changes with both 1972-73 and 2009-10 being -PDO years as well. Very very small chance at this point we hit peak ENSO state for this year.

Not a bad look! even including those two weak years still not bad.

 

I dunno...looking at the ONI you're only talking a month difference on a couple of those so I'm not sure that you throw them a out. There are only 2 that have a long grace period versus the years you mentioned, but I get what your saying. 

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, Grace said:

 

I dunno...looking at the ONI you're only talking a month difference on a couple of those so I'm not sure that you throw them a out. There are only 2 that have a long grace period versus the years you mentioned, but I get what your saying. 

Sorry brain went with months instead of trimonthly like ONI shows. So here are all the years in question.

1957-58: the last cold value was in ASO '56 we did not get to warm status until MAM of '57 if we had held onto the cool conditions throughout winter of 56-57 I would agree it would have had a decent match potential. About 8 months in between states.

1972-73: last cold value was JFM of '72 went warm ENSO by AMJ of '72. About 3 months in between states.  

1976-77: the last cold value was in MAM of '76 went to warm ENSO by ASO of '76 about 4-5 months give or take

1986-87: the last cold value was JAS of '85 did not go warm ENSO until ASO of '86. This was truly a full year in between states.

2002-03: last cold value was JFM '01 neutral all the way until MJJ of '02 again more than year between states

2009-10: last cold value FMA '09 went to warm ENSO by JJA of '09 about 3-4 months in between states

2018-19: last cold value was MAM of '18 went to warm ENSO ASO '18 ~3-4 months

By far the one that is being closely followed thus far is definitely 1972-73 in comparison to strength and changes in ENSO state. The two bolded are ones I personally probably wouldn't consider though. Again not a bad setup even removing those two on this principle also these years are showing extreme negative temp anoms for DJF as well.

The other thing to consider still is the record warm Atlantic no other years are coming into comparison to this year so far and we have dealt with an extremely warm W ATL for years now which tends to promote SE ridging even with a neutral/negative NAO. On top of not only the warm Atlantic but the fact that most of the west Pacific has not cooled in meaningful ways gives me pause using some of the older years but that is a different story. I feel the warm W ATL would modify the eastern US temp profile to a more average look for DJF then one significantly cooler like some of these years are showing.

This is all also barring the ENSO doesn't go haywire here and full on couple then we may have to look at different years...

Edited to add in years of 1986-87 and 02-03 into the composite.

Edited September 6, 2023 by so_whats_happening

[Grace]

NMME Page updated. 

DJF

 

JFM

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/

Edited September 7, 2023 by Grace

[Grace]

CFS improving on DEC look...for now, 😂

 

[Grace]

JMA's first winter outlook...oh my word!

DJF

 

Very close to 2002-03:

 

Its better than 2002-03 though. It does not get any better than that! It's just a model outlook not a forecast, but nice!

I'll also add it's a backloaded winter. DEC has a typical warmish Nino look. 

Edited September 8, 2023 by Grace

[SOMOSnow]

2 hours ago, Grace said:

JMA's first winter outlook...oh my word!

DJF

 

Very close to 2002-03:

 

Its better than 2002-03 though. It does not get any better than that! It's just a model outlook not a forecast, but nice!

I'll also add it's a backloaded winter. DEC has a typical warmish Nino look. 

Looks amazing, Grace. I wish it were showing this in November. Hopefully it will be. 

[Hiramite]

On 9/6/2023 at 10:36 AM, MesoscaleBanding said:

Don't know if it means a thing at all, but black walnut trees in my area of central Ohio are absolutely loaded with walnuts (probably twice as many as usual on the 3 trees around my property). 

 

On 9/6/2023 at 10:43 AM, MainelySnow said:

Well we've got a good chance to put the anecdotal old-timers wisdom to the test this winter. Our oaks are loaded with acorns as well.  If nothing else, I'd like to have my grandfathers' prognostications do better than accuweather!

Do peach trees count? My neighbor’s.

 

Anywaayyy, I’m not active on these long range threads but my fingers are crossed that the Nino goes no higher than the moderate range.

Looking forward to seeing the OV folks on the storm threads. Go snow.

Edited September 9, 2023 by Hiramite

[Grace]

JAMSTEC Updated...big winter like EURO, & JMA

DJF 2m Temps

 

DJF Precip

 

There's 3 groups of ensembles totalling 108 members.

2 of those groups of ensembles are really cold.

https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html

 

Edited September 12, 2023 by Grace

[Grace]

This is about as dead as I've ever seen the winter forum heading into mid-September. No discussion about anything? 

Edited September 14, 2023 by Grace

[SOMOSnow]

23 minutes ago, Grace said:

This is about as dead as I've ever seen the winter forum heading into mid-September. No discussion about anything? 

I'm hoping it picks up soon. I will try to add some content beginning tomorrow (Friday). 

[SOMOSnow]

👇 FWIW.... 

 

Edited September 14, 2023 by SOMOSnow

[1816]

6 hours ago, Grace said:

This is about as dead as I've ever seen the winter forum heading into mid-September. No discussion about anything? 

People trying hard not to jinx it probably. It looks way more promising than usual.  

[beaver56]

7 hours ago, SOMOSnow said:

👇 FWIW.... 

 

Good ole Joe. He loves hyping cold. 😂