RobB Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 33 minutes ago, beaver56 said: Still sucks. 😆 I actually prefer this than wide spread blue. Being potentially near average in January rather than overwhelmingly cold, may better snow chances 😊 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 42 minutes ago, TheBlizzardOf1978 said: Your commentary on your posts are appreciated, so don't be afraid to say more, it helps to clarify what we are looking at. You're looking at a SPV in distress. You're also looking at it move towards CONUS but that's not near as important unless the Stratosphere & troposphere are coupled. As SPV weakens they decouple. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 Be careful biting on model's right now because they all over place with MJO & that massively affects their output. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 59 minutes ago, Grace said: Be careful biting on model's right now because they all over place with MJO & that massively affects their output. This 100 percent. I’ve noticed whenever a pattern adjustment is happening with the mjo going into a different state models are really bad. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlizzardOf1978 Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 9 minutes ago, SNOWBOB11 said: This 100 percent. I’ve noticed whenever a pattern adjustment is happening with the mjo going into a different state models are really bad. Does this also applied to long-range temperature changes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 6 minutes ago, TheBlizzardOf1978 said: Does this also applied to long-range temperature changes? I’d say it’s more so to do with system track and precip events than temperature however at this point I’m not taking anything too seriously until it’s within 3-4 days. Having said that with most major models showing a colder trend in the LR I think we’re in good shape. But as always it’s wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 0Z Canadian ensemble mean day 9 to 16 temps. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 I'm in wait and see mode right now. Been burned way too many times lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 12/22 0Z NAEFS 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted December 22, 2023 Moderators Share Posted December 22, 2023 From the CPC discussion that accompanied the updated 3-month outlooks that were issued yesterday 12/21/23. ....The trend signals are weak during JFM for much of the CONUS and Alaska, so the forecast is largely based on patterns associated with El Nino and dynamical model guidance. Some of the guidance is indicating a warmer signal across portions of the Southeast, so some of the areas where near-normal temperatures were indicated last month for JFM are removed. Odds for above-normal temperatures were lowered across the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes due to additional uncertainty associated with the potential for an SSW and to reflect recent model guidance. Near-normal temperatures are favored for the Central and Southern Plains and parts of Southeast during JFM 2024, supported by a consolidation of dynamical and statistical models...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Popular Post BuckeyeGal Posted December 22, 2023 Admin Popular Post Share Posted December 22, 2023 This is the part where you've been running a 5k, and over the course of your path, it started to pour rain, you've tripped and nearly fallen countless times because of slick conditions, you have sweat running down your face, a woman going faster than you pushing a stroller cut you off, and your streaming music on your phone stops working.. but you can see the finish line. It's inside the big baseball stadium where you started. And you enter the stadium with a huge smile on your face.. only to realize they're making you run the dang bases before you cross that final line. Hang in there, runners. We've got this. Just like I did a couple months ago in that 5k, lol. 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 22, 2023 Moderators Share Posted December 22, 2023 This was as refreshing as a ice filled glass of lemonade on a hot summer day 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 I was worried I was going to miss something 1st week of Jan as I will be in San Diego for a sales conference until Jan 6th, doesn't look like I have to worry about missing anything... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulaman984 Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 Today's 12Z Candian 10 day snowfall: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 (edited) 12Z Canadian day 3 to day 10 temps vs 12Z GFS same time period. Major differences. Edited December 22, 2023 by SOMOSnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 (edited) 12Z Canadian ensemble mean GIF Christmas morning to day 16. I'm definitely pulling for the Canadian products right now in terms of temps. Edited December 22, 2023 by SOMOSnow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 12/22 12Z NAEFS: 3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Grace Posted December 22, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted December 22, 2023 Well... GEFS 50mb Control GEFS 10mb Control GEFS 50mb GEFS 10mb EXPLANATION: Real good! 😀 3 2 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 2 hours ago, Grace said: Well... GEFS 50mb Control GEFS 10mb Control GEFS 50mb GEFS 10mb EXPLANATION: Real good! 😀 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted December 22, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted December 22, 2023 2 hours ago, Grace said: Well... GEFS 50mb Control GEFS 10mb Control GEFS 50mb GEFS 10mb EXPLANATION: Real good! 😀 I only caution be careful with it being the end of the run. Would much rsther see it look like that at hr 240 but steps are better than nothing else. See if it holds as we get close to the end of the year. But looks nice, only thing i would expect to change would be a stronger concentration of displaced spv in eurasia versus the stronger lobe over north america. Again plenty of time for this change you just dont want the weight of the cold over this side just enough of a change to help things out. Too much cold and the SE has all the fun... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 10 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: Too much cold and the SE has all the fun... This 👆🏻 Ends up -10 degrees in the Midwest and New England and snowing in Georgia. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 18Z GFS day 9 to 16 temp anomalies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 18Z GEFS 9 to 16 day temp anomalies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now